地緣政治風險促使全球公共投資者增持黃金

The gold reserves of the world’s biggest public sector investors reached an 18-year high as they hoarded the precious metal after Donald Trump’s election and the Brexit vote added to geopolitical uncertainty.

世界各大公共部門投資者的黃金儲備達到18年來的高位。在唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)當選和英國公投退歐加大地緣政治不確定性之後，此類投資者積極囤積這種貴重金屬。

State investors increased their net gold holdings by 377 tonnes to an estimated 31,000 tonnes last year — the highest level since 1999, according to a study of 750 central banks, public pension plans and sovereign wealth funds with $33.5tn in assets.

針對資產總和達到33.5萬億美元的750家央行、公共養老金計劃和主權財富基金的一項研究顯示，國家投資者的淨黃金持有量去年增加377噸，達到3.1萬噸，是1999年以來的最高水平。

Danae Kyriakopoulou, chief economist at the Official Monetary and Financial Forum (Omfif), the central bankers’ forum that compiled the research, said state investors had flocked to the precious metal because of its status as a “haven asset” and to take advantage of rising prices.

從事這項研究的央行官員論壇——國際貨幣金融機構官方論壇(OMFIF)首席經濟學家達娜·基里亞科普盧(Danae Kyriakopoulou)表示，國家投資者競相投資黃金，是因爲這種貴金屬的“避風港資產”地位，也是爲了利用其價格不斷上漲。

“There was a lot of political uncertainty in the past year. There were big political shocks with Brexit and Trump, which have driven investors back to gold,” she said.

“過去一年出現了很多政治不確定性。英國退歐和特朗普都產生了巨大的政治衝擊，推動投資者重返黃金，”基里亞科普盧表示。

The price of gold surged after the unexpected Brexit vote in June and immediately after the election of Mr Trump in November, although it fell in the final weeks of the year.

去年6月英國選民意外投票支持退歐之後，以及11月特朗普當選後的短期內，金價均曾出現飆升，儘管其在接近年底的幾周有所下降。

Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council, said state-backed investors had also increased their gold stores as a hedge against the stronger dollar. The dollar is up 15 per cent against the pound over the past year.

世界黃金協會(World Gold Council)市場情報部門負責人阿利斯泰爾·休伊特(Alistair Hewitt)表示，國家背景的投資者增持黃金也是爲了對衝美元走強。過去一年期間，美元兌英鎊匯率上升了15%。

“Central banks and public institutions have been adding to their strategic gold holdings for a number of years,” Mr Hewitt said. “A lot of emerging market central banks hold significant amounts of US dollars, and they have bought gold as a hedge against this concentrated currency exposure.”

“各國央行和公共機構多年來一直在增加戰略黃金儲備，”休伊特表示。“很多新興市場的央行持有大量美元資產，他們買入黃金以對衝這種集中的貨幣敞口。”

The central banks in Russia, China and Kazakhstan are among the big investors that bought gold last year, according of Omfif.

據國際貨幣金融機構官方論壇介紹，俄羅斯、中國和哈薩克斯坦的央行去年躋身於最大黃金買家之列。

Public sector investors are also likely storing up gold as a bet against rising inflation, said Saker Nusseibeh, chief executive of Hermes Investment Management, the ￡30bn fund house. “Gold is the refuge of uncertainty.”

旗下管理300億英鎊資產的基金公司Hermes Investment Management首席執行官薩克?努賽貝(Saker Nusseibeh)表示，公共部門投資者增持黃金也很可能是爲了對衝通脹上揚，“黃金是不確定性的避難所”。

According to Omfif’s study, geopolitical risk was the biggest concern for pension plans, sovereign wealth funds and central banks over the next 12 months.

根據國際貨幣金融機構官方論壇的研究，地緣政治風險是各國養老金計劃、主權財富基金和央行在未來12個月期間最大的擔憂。

Over the next 24 months, state-backed investors are increasingly on the hunt for so-called real assets, such as property and renewable energy, in an attempt to generate returns, the research found.

這項研究發現，未來24個月，國家背景的投資者將日益尋覓所謂的實物資產，如房地產和可再生能源，以求獲得回報。

The People’s Bank of China remained the world’s largest public investors with $3tn in assets, ahead of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund. Norway’s oil fund ranked as the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund.

中國人民銀行(PBoC)仍是世界上最大的公共投資者，總資產3萬億美元，超過日本的政府養老金投資基金(GPIF)。挪威的石油基金是世界最大的主權財富基金。