政治風險仍將左右匯市
While 2016 was the year the unlikely became real, currency investors enter 2017 no better equipped to tell the difference between reality and illusion.
儘管2016年是一個不太可能的事情變成現實的年份，但在進入2017年之際，外匯投資者仍無法更好區分現實與假象。Brexit and Trump made a mockery of assumptions, shredded investors’ best-laid plans and turned political risk analysts into the most in-demand advisers of the year.
英國退歐(Brexit)和特朗普是對假設的嘲弄，破壞了投資者精心設計的計劃，並讓政治風險分析師成了去年最搶手的顧問。The two big themes of 2016 will feel palpable during the first quarter of 2017. Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become US president on January 20. By March’s end, UK prime minister Theresa May will have sent to the EU the letter that triggers the UK’s formal divorce proceedings, and revealed some element of her negotiating hand.
2017年第一季度，人們仍將明顯感覺到2016年的這兩大主題。1月20日，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)將宣誓就任美國總統。到3月底，英國首相特里薩?梅(Theresa May)將已向歐盟致信，觸發英國的正式退歐程序，並顯示她的談判立場的一些元素。
All the same, neither of these “facts on the ground” will bring clarity to investors, even if their market behaviour in the tail-end of 2016 suggests they hope and expect otherwise.
儘管如此，這兩個“既成事實”都不會讓投資者撥開迷霧，即便他們在2016年底的市場行爲似乎表明，他們希望並期待情況會變得明朗。A “dollar exuberance” broke out post-election, says Peter Rosenstreich of the internet-based bank, Swissquote. Trump promises of fiscal policy and tax reform had the “near-magical effects” of convincing investors that monetary policy would end smoothly, global growth enhanced and corporate profits boosted.
互聯網銀行瑞訊(Swissquote)的彼得?羅森施特賴希(Peter Rosenstreich)表示，“美元繁榮”在美國選舉後出現。特朗普承諾的財政政策和稅收改革承諾產生了“近乎魔力般的效果”：讓投資者相信貨幣政策將平穩收尾，全球增長將提速，企業利潤將得到提振。1. November 9: Donald Trump’s election victory spurs start of dollar rally
1、11月9日：唐納德?特朗普勝選，開啓美元漲勢。2. December 5: Supreme Court hearing into UK’s government’s Article 50 appeal adds to Brexit doubts, pushing sterling higher
2、12月5日：英國最高法院開始審理英國政府就觸發《里斯本條約》第50條(Article 50)權限提起的上訴，這加劇了外界對於英國退歐的疑慮，促使英鎊匯率上漲。3. December 7: China’s reserves drop a further $70bn as central bank struggles to halt sliding value of renminbi
3、12月7日：中國外匯儲備進一步縮減700億美元，中國央行艱難阻止人民幣貶值。4. December 14: Dollar rally sustained by Fed rate rise
4、12月14日：美聯儲(Fed)加息維持了美元的漲勢。This is giving the US consumer a false sense of wealth and wellbeing, he believes, arguing that US data merely reflect a temporary upswing in a large cyclical downturn.
他認爲，這給美國消費者帶來了一種虛假的富有和幸福的感覺，他辯稱，美國數據只是反映出一段大規模週期性低迷期間出現的暫時回升。“We remain sceptical that President Trump will accomplish anything close to the miracle growth rhetoric he has been supplying,” says Mr Rosenstreich.
羅森施特賴希表示：“我們仍懷疑，特朗普總統能否實現他一直誇口的近乎奇蹟般的增長承諾。”The pound’s recent rally also suggests investors expect a clearer picture of Brexit to emerge early in 2017, fuelled by softer rhetoric from Mrs May and her ministers.
英鎊最近的上漲也似乎表明，受到梅和她手下的部長級官員們較爲柔和的言論的鼓舞，投資者預計英國退歐的前景將在2017年初變得更爲明朗。Yet according to Nomura’s foreign exchange strategist Jordan Rochester, Mrs May’s Brexit plan is likely to be “very vague, full of hope, but lacking in any concrete details to safeguard the government’s negotiation tactics”.
然而，野村證券(Nomura)外匯策略師策略師喬丹?羅切斯特(Jordan Rochester)表示，梅的退歐計劃可能會“非常含糊，充滿希望，但缺乏具體的細節來保障政府的談判策略”。For greater certainty, investors may well revert to what they have followed more closely in recent years — economic data and the utterances of central banks. This will be the case even if the limitations of monetary policy mean policymakers are supposedly passing responsibility for global growth to politicians.
要想獲得更大確定性，投資者很有可能回到最近幾年他們更密切關注的事情上：經濟數據和央行的表態。即便貨幣政策的侷限性意味着政策制定者是時候將全球增長的責任移交給政治人士，情況仍會如此。Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas’s global head of foreign exchange strategy, says the dollar’s post-election rally of more than 11 per cent against the yen was built on Trump-fuelled expectations.
法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)外匯策略全球主管斯蒂文?塞維爾(Steven Saywell)表示，美元兌日元匯率在美國大選後上漲逾11%，這基於特朗普引發的預期。Contrast that with Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, and her upbeat assessment of the US economy that accompanied last month’s rate rise.
這與美聯儲主席珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)的表態以及她在2016年12月加息後對美國經濟的樂觀評估形成對比。“Inflation has picked up,” says Mr Saywell. “Even without Trump expectations, the dollar would be stronger.”
“通脹已上揚，”塞維爾表示，“即便沒有特朗普引發的預期，美元也會走強。”If the Fed is a better guide than Mr Trump for the dollar’s broad direction in 2017, what will determine the euro’s path — the European Central Bank or European elections?
如果說，就美元在2017年的基本走勢而言，美聯儲是比特朗普更好的指引，那麼決定歐元走勢的因素會是什麼？歐洲央行(ECB)還是歐洲選舉？The temptation for investors is to keep a close watch on the slew of 2017 European elections for further signs of the populist traits that secured victories for the Leave campaign in the UK referendum and Mr Trump in the US.
投資者也許將忍不住密切關注2017年歐洲的一系列選舉，看有沒有民粹主義情緒的更多跡象，這些情緒曾讓退歐陣營在英國公投中獲勝，也讓特朗普贏得美國大選。Yet as Derek Halpenny at MUFG points out, largely forgotten in the attention on Brexit and Trump were the actions of the ECB last month in increasing quantitative easing purchases.
然而，就像三菱日聯金融集團(MUFG)的德里克?赫爾潘尼(Derek Halpenny)指出的那樣，歐洲央行在2016年12月做出的擴大量化寬鬆(QE)購買規模的措施，在人們對英國退歐公投和特朗普的關注中基本上被忽視了。These, he says, “brought about a revival in the divergence trade that will probably be the theme for the dollar, the euro and the yen in the first part of 2017”.
他表示，這些措施“帶來了分化交易(divergence trade)的復甦，這或許會成爲美元、歐元和日元在2017年上半年的主旋律”。Mr Saywell agrees. “The euro hasn’t fallen as much against the dollar as the yen,” he says. “A lot will come down to the policy response of central banks.”
塞維爾認同這點。“歐元兌美元匯率的下跌幅度不及日元兌美元匯率，”他表示，“很多事情將取決於央行的政策迴應。”The ECB, he suspects, will taper monetary policy. While BNP Paribas forecasts the yen heading for ￥128 against the dollar, maybe even to ￥135, the bank expects the euro to drop to parity with the dollar but not much further.
他估計，歐洲央行將逐漸結束貨幣政策措施。儘管巴黎銀行預測，日元兌美元匯率將跌向1美元兌128日元，甚至1美元兌135日元，但該行預測，歐元兌美元匯率將跌至1:1，但不會進一步大幅下跌。“As the ECB exits QE, the market will rebound,” says Mr Saywell.
他表示：“隨着歐洲央行退出量化寬鬆政策，市場將反彈。”Still, the canny investor will doubtless keep up to date with all developments, political and economic, to chart the most trouble-free path through foreign exchange. As Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon says, 2017 has all the hallmarks of being a repeat of 1985 — loose fiscal policy, tax cuts, a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar.
話雖如此，精明的投資者肯定會跟蹤所有政治和經濟事態，以求在外匯市場摸索出一條麻煩最少的道路。正如紐約梅隆銀行(BNY Mellon)策略師西蒙?德里克(Simon Derrick)所言，2017年具備讓1985年重演的所有特點：寬鬆財政政策、減稅、美聯儲鷹派立場和美元匯率飆升。“It was the pressure of US corporates that was brought to bear on Congress and subsequently the Reagan White House that led to the abandonment of a strong dollar policy,” says Mr Derrick.
德里克表示：“美國企業的壓力影響了美國國會，後來也影響了里根主政的白宮，導致美國放棄了強勢美元政策。”Could there be a similar political backlash in Trump’s US? “Absolutely,” Mr Derrick says.
在特朗普主政時期，美國會否出現類似的政治反彈？德里克表示：“絕對會”。This is by no means the only moment in 2017 when the realities of politics and economics will affect investment choices. The other, warns Mr Derrick, is China.
這絕非2017年唯一一個政治和經濟現實將影響投資選擇的時刻。德里克警告稱，另一個是中國。In November, the People’s Bank of China drained its reserves by $70bn and has consequently been reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to prevent the renminbi depreciating further. In the background stands Mr Trump, ready to repeat accusations that China has been deliberately weakening the renminbi for competitive gain.
2016年11月，中國央行(PBoC)消耗了700億美元外匯儲備，減持了美國國債，以阻止人民幣進一步貶值。特朗普則站在背景中，準備重複他的指責：中國一直在故意削弱人民幣匯率，以獲得競爭好處。“There is a reasonable chance China will rethink its currency policy,” says Mr Derrick. “It must be galling to be spending $70bn and at the same time to be called a currency manipulator. How that plays out next year will be fascinating.”
“中國有合理機會反思其匯率政策，”德里克表示，“花了700億美元外匯儲備，同時又被稱作匯率操縱國，這肯定令人難堪。2017年這方面的事態將如何發展，將是一件扣人心絃的事。”
