IMF 全球金融穩定面臨新風險
The world risks a slide into a fresh financial crisis leading to global recession if governments and policymakers mishandle market stability risks, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)週三警告稱，如果各國政府和政策制定者對市場穩定風險應對不當，世界可能陷入一場新的金融危機，導致全球衰退。
José , the fund’s head of financial stability, told the Financial Times that its bad scenario “does not rely on extreme assumptions at all”, merely that risk premiums increase again, corporate defaults rise in emerging economies and there is a worldwide decline in appetite for riskier assets.
IMF負責金融穩定的主管喬斯維納爾斯(José )對英國《金融時報》表示，IMF的最壞設想“根本不依賴於極端的設想”，而只是風險溢價再度上升、新興市場的公司違約現象增多，同時全球對風險較高資產的投資意願下降。
The effects would consign the world to growth rates sufficiently weak to be termed a global recession.
這一局面的後果，可能使世界增速減弱到可被稱爲全球衰退的地步。
“If we don’t get it right we could set the clock back in terms of growth,” Mr added.
“如果我們應對不當的話，我們可能會在增長方面走回頭路，”維納爾斯接着說。
In its twice-yearly global financial stability report, the IMF simulated the effects of the current financial fragilities in emerging economies turning sour from another shock to confidence or a policy mistake.
IMF在其每半年發佈一次的全球金融穩定報告中，模擬了新興經濟體當前的金融脆弱性因又一次信心衝擊或政策失誤而惡化的後果。
“Shocks may originate in advanced or emerging markets and, combined with unaddressed system vulnerabilities, could lead to a global asset market disruption and a sudden drying up of market liquidity in many asset classes,” the report warned.
“衝擊或許會源自發達或新興市場，再加上未被應對的系統脆弱性，可能引發一場全球資產市場紊亂，以及多個資產類別的市場流動性突然乾涸，”該報告警告稱。
In these circumstances, spending growth would slow sharply in emerging and advanced economies leading to a shortfall in output of 2.4 per cent by 2017 compared with the baseline IMF forecasts.
在這些情況下，新興與發達經濟體的支出增速將大幅放慢，導致2017年的世界產出較IMF預測的基準低2.4%。
With those forecasts already weak, it would imply global growth would face the strong possibility of falling below 2 per cent for a year, the standard definition of a global recession, although one that would fall short of another crisis on the scale of 2008.
由於預測水平本已很低，這意味着，全球年度增速很可能將低於2%（這是全球衰退的標準定義），儘管它不至於引發跟2008年規模相仿的又一場危機。
“Our central scenario is not a crisis. The downside scenario is not a global crisis but a situation in which we would have significant losses in terms of GDP,” Mr said.
“我們的核心設想並非一場危機。悲觀設想並非一場全球危機，而是我們在國內生產總值(GDP)方面遭受顯著損失的情形，”維納爾斯說。
The risks have worse implications than those simulated in the fund’s economic forecasts and highlight the need, he added, for policymakers to address the financial stability weakness in the world.
他補充稱，相關風險的影響比IMF在經濟預測中模擬得出的影響更嚴重，突出表明政策制定者有必要應對世界金融穩定方面的薄弱之處。
