關注社會:中國促增長計劃面臨考驗

China's economy is limping into the final months of the year, raising the question: why isn't Beijing doing more to support growth?

中國經濟正在蹣跚步入今年的最後幾個月，人們不禁要問這樣一個問題：北京爲什麼不採取更大力度的措施來支持經濟增長？

Industrial output is now growing at the slowest rate since May 2009, decelerating to 8.9% year-to-year in August, down from 9.2% in July. Business surveys show new export orders contracting. The one bright spot in the August data came from real estate, with the area of new residential property under construction rebounding to 4.9% year-to-year growth, after eight months of contraction.

中國工業增加值目前的增速爲2009年5月以來的最低水平，8月份同比增幅降至8.9%，低於7月份的9.2%。企業調查顯示新增出口訂單處於萎縮狀態。8月份數據中唯一的亮點來自房地產業。在建新住宅項目面積繼收縮了八個月後，8月份同比增長4.9%。

The government so far has contented itself with two interest rate cuts, a modest acceleration of public spending, and approval of more infrastructure projects-most recently a slew of new subway systems for second-tier cities. Relative to the scale of the slowdown though, those efforts appear modest-nowhere near the 4 trillion yuan ($630.4 billion) stimulus plan unveiled at the end of 2008.

中國政府目前爲止出臺的措施僅限於兩次下調利率、小幅加快公共支出速度、批准更多的基礎設施項目（最近一次是批准衆多二線城市新建地鐵系統）。不過，與經濟增長放緩的程度相比，這些努力看起來力度不大，遠遠不及2008年底推出的人民幣4萬億元（合6,304億美元）的刺激計劃。

One possible explanation is that a once-in-a-decade leadership transition has frozen China's decision making process. Achieving consensus on any big decisions before the Party Congress-likely in mid-October-will be difficult. But that seems unlikely to be the major factor-if there's one thing China's leaders can always agree on, it's the importance of growth.

一種可能的解釋是，10年一次的領導人換屆凍結了中國的決策過程。領導人在（可能於10月中旬舉行的）18大前夕就任何重大決策達成一致將很困難。不過，這似乎不太可能是政府未推出大規模刺激計劃的主要原因──如果有什麼事是中國領導人總能達成一致的，那就是經濟增長至關重要。

A more likely explanation is that, as far as Beijing's concerned, current growth remains in the acceptable range. At the beginning of the year Premier Wen Jiabao lowered the growth target to 7.5% from 8%. With a modest increase in infrastructure and real-estate investment, that is within reach. There are no signs in the data of mass factory layoffs-a key measure for stability obsessed Beijing.

一種可能性更大的解釋是，在北京看來，目前的經濟增長速度仍處於可以接受的範圍。今年年初，中國國務院總理溫家寶將經濟增長預期目標從8%降至7.5%。藉助於小幅增加基礎設施和房地產投資，這一目標是可以實現的。經濟數據中未顯示出工廠大規模裁員的跡象──裁員是北京極爲關注的一個衡量社會穩定的重要指標。

Even if the government wanted to do more, though, room for maneuver is more constrained than it was going into the last crisis. Ballooning credit, fear of bad debts in the banking system, and incipient price pressure all make it difficult to push the stimulus button much harder. Overcapacity in industry means that Beijing's move to loosen lending has been met by a lukewarm response from borrowers.

不過，就算政府想採取更多措施，其調控的空間和上次危機時相比更加有限。激增的信貸、對銀行體系不良貸款的擔憂、初露端倪的價格壓力，所有這些因素都使政府難以推出更大力度的刺激計劃。工業產能過剩意味着，儘管北京放寬了信貸，借款人的反應卻較冷淡。

But whatever the mixture of deliberate intention and involuntary constraint that's shaping Beijing's limited response to the downturn, it appears policy makers have come round to the reality of China's slower growth.

不過，不管是什麼深思熟慮的打算以及偶然的制約因素導致北京對經濟增長放緩的應對措施有限，決策者似乎都已經接受了中國經濟增長放緩的事實。