關注社會:中國銀行業前景轉弱

What is $9bn between friends? Not more than a trifle, if you are bank of Communications and your biggest, closest buddies have Already agreed to a private placement capital raising equivalent to a fifth of your diluted share capital. A pity for those shareholders that the Chinese bank is now trading at a discount to the subscription price. Perhaps by thinking about what else the funds could have bought (half of Societe Generale or UniCredit by market capitalisation for example), the bet does not appear so bad.

朋友之間90億美元算什麼錢？實在不算什麼——前提是你是交通銀行(BoCom)，而你最大、最要好的朋友已同意進行一場私募籌資，規模相當於你的稀釋後股本的五分之一。可憐那些股東，這家中資銀行目前的股價低於私募認購價。也許想一想這筆錢原本還可能買到什麼——比如法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)或意大利裕信銀行(UniCredit)的一半市值——就會覺得這筆賭注似乎不算太糟。

Equity raisings are all about timing (just ask UniCredit). This one is provident for BoCom, if not the value of its shareholders' stakes. The new shares were offered at a near 10 per cent discount back in March. Now they are at a 7 per cent premium. And the outlook for China's banks is weakening. BoCom and its four bigger rivals report first-half numbers this month. Liberalising interest rates will eat into previously rock-steady margins while the mistakes of the 2009 crisis-solving lending boom will show up in rising bad loans. The economy is also slowing. All this will hit banks at once, however. Barclays reckons the greater freedom in setting deposit rates will lower net interest margins by an average of just 9 basis points this year, although by a further 40bp in 2013.

發股籌資的關鍵在於時機（只要問問裕信銀行就會明白）。此次募資對交行而言可謂是有先見之明的（對該行股東所持股份的價值而言恐怕就不是這樣了）。新股是在今年3月以接近10%的折讓發出認購要約的。現在認購價相對於市場價有7%的溢價。而且中國各銀行的前景正在轉弱。交行和四家規模更大的競爭對手將在本月報告上半年業績。利率市場化將侵蝕此前堅如磐石的存貸息差，與此同時，2009年爲擺脫危機而掀起的放貸狂潮的失誤，將體現於不斷增加的不良貸款。中國經濟也在放緩。不過，這些因素不會立刻打擊各銀行。巴克萊(Barclays)預計，提高設定存款利率的自由度，只會使淨息差今年平均降低9個基點，但在2013年，淨息差將進一步降低40個基點。

Long-term, the more liberal environment for rates is positive if, as it should, it forces these state-controlled giants to compete more vigorously and to diversify their revenues. Loan interest accounts for about four-fifths of income at the big banks. But in the shorter-term, investors are jittery and it shows. The big banks are now trading, relative to book value, at an average 1.1 times, far below the 2.7 peak in late 2009. BoCom, at 0.9, is the lowest. It needed the capital for regulatory purposes and the added strength comes at a good time. The sector however is still not cheap relative to the risks ahead. China's expansion, albeit at a slower rate, still offers huge opportunities for its biggest banks. But they must now prove they can take them.

長遠而言，利率市場化是積極的舉措——前提是它像應該發生的情況那樣，迫使這些龐大的國有控股銀行展開更加有力的競爭，多元化各自的營收來源。目前，貸款利息爲各大銀行貢獻大約五分之四的利潤。但短期而言，投資者會對此感到緊張，這反映在股價上。中國各大銀行目前的市淨率平均爲1.1倍，遠低於2009年末2.7倍的峯值。交行的市淨率爲0.9倍，是最低的。該行當時需要爲滿足監管要求而募資，現在來看，這一增強實力之舉非常及時。不過，相對於下一階段的風險，中國銀行類股票目前仍不夠便宜。中國的經濟擴張（儘管速度放慢）仍將爲各大銀行帶來巨大機遇。但這些銀行現在必須證明自己能夠抓住機遇。