關注社會:中國硬着陸風險幾何?

The release last week of softer than expected Chinese growth data triggered a fresh bout of speculation that the country’s economy could be heading for a "hard landing". But should investors worry?

中國上週公佈的增長數據遜於預期，引發新一輪有關中國經濟可能發生“硬着陸”的猜測。對此，投資者應當感到擔憂嗎？

David Shairp at JPMorgan Asset Management says that while there are signs that China is heading for a soft landing, it is too soon to sound the all-clear.

摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的戴維•謝普(David Shairp)表示，儘管許多跡象表明中國經濟將實現軟着陸，但目前遠不到解除警報的時候。

"The Achilles heel of this economy — ironically — is the trade sector," he says. "For an economy that has developed strongly over the past three decades, thanks to export-led industrialisation, the main risk to a soft landing now lies in a sharper export slowdown. There are some tentative signs that demand is recovering, with the PMI orders data ticking up, declines in inventories of raw materials and bank credit improving."

“具有諷刺意味的是，中國經濟的致命要害恰好是貿易領域，”他表示。“得益於出口驅動的工業化，中國經濟過去三十年發展迅猛。眼下，可能導致經濟無法實現軟着陸的主要風險在於出口下滑幅度加大。目前已出現需求回升的初步跡象：採購經理指數(PMI)中的訂單數據有所改善，原材料庫存在減少，而銀行信貸也在好轉。”

"But while it may well be that China’s economy is bottoming out, the vagaries of post-lunar new year data mean it will be some time before the growth outlook is clarified. The most likely outcome is a ‘soft’ landing but the risk of a ‘harder’ landing remains significant. Indeed, unless the authorities ease policy further, a more unpleasant outcome could occur."

“但是，儘管中國經濟很可能正在觸底回升，春節後各種怪異的數據卻表明，一段時間之後我們才能看清中國經濟的增長前景。最有可能發生的結果是‘軟着陸’，但‘比較硬地着陸’的風險仍然不容忽視。實際上，除非當局進一步放鬆政策，否則可能會發生更糟糕的後果。”

Nikolaus Keis, economist at UniCredit, agrees that the GDP data emphasise the necessity for further policy action by the Chinese authorities to boost domestic demand.

意大利裕信銀行(UniCredit)經濟學家尼古勞斯•凱斯(Nikolaus Keis)也認爲，國內生產總值(GDP)數據說明中國當局有必要採取進一步的政策行動，以刺激國內需求。

"GDP growth at about 8 per cent is generally thought to be the threshold at which enough job creation for new entrants into China’s labour market can be assured," he says. "We expect the reserve requirement rate for banks to be lowered by an additional 150-200 basis points over the coming months. A cut in key interest rates is also an option, as are further selective fiscal policy measures — although definitely not another huge stimulus programme like that rolled out in mid-2009."

“人們通常認爲，8%是中國GDP增長率的一個臨界點，只有達到這個‘門檻’，才能保證爲勞動力市場新增人員提供足夠多的工作崗位，”他表示。“我們預計，未來幾個月，中國將把銀行存款準備金率再調低150至200個基點。調低關鍵利率也是一種選擇，此外也有可能再出臺選擇性財政政策措施——儘管絕不會是2009年中龐大刺激計劃的翻版。”

"Continued or intensified policy accommodation is the most important factor why our money is still on a 'soft-landing scenario'. It is combined with our expectation that the drag of net exports on GDP growth should abate, given signs of stabilisation and subsequent recovery of the global economy, namely the US, and the defusing of the debt crisis in Europe."

“政策寬鬆度持續或加大，是我們的資金仍然押注‘軟着陸結果’的最重要因素。另一個因素是我們的預測——鑑於全球經濟、最重要的是美國經濟出現企穩並復甦的跡象，以及歐洲債務危機出現緩和跡象，淨出口對中國GDP增長率的拖累作用應會減弱。”

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, is even more bullish on the outlook for consumption. "Apparently the windfall from falling food prices in China did not pass through fast enough for households to act on it by the end of the first quarter — so consumer spending did not rise over the period," he says.

高頻經濟公司(High Frequency Economics)首席經濟學家卡爾•溫伯格(Carl Weinberg)對中國消費增長前景更爲樂觀。他表示，“很明顯，因爲食品價格下跌而省下的錢，中國家庭在第一季度結束前還沒來得及做出相應的反應，因此這段時期消費支出未見增長。”

"But this pick-up in spending is inevitable, although it may take longer to materialise than we had initially expected. People need time to realise that they have more money left over after they have eaten."

“但是，消費開支增加的趨勢是不可避免的，儘管可能會發生得比我們先前預測的要晚一些。人們意識到購買食品之後還富餘更多的閒錢，是需要時間的。”

"Slowing the rate of food price increases is the most potent economic stimulus for this huge nation, where 1.3bn people spend 35-45 per cent of their earnings on food. Just as petrol price rises crowd out discretionary spending in New York and London, food price surges squash spending in China. Look for consumer demand to accelerate soon, boosting second-quarter GDP growth."

“中國是一個有着13億人口的大國，人們在吃喝上的開支佔到收入水平的35%至45%。對於這樣的國家，減緩食品價格上漲速度是最有效的經濟刺激。正如汽油漲價會擠壓紐約人和倫敦人的可支配開支，食品價格猛漲也會擠壓中國人在其他方面的開支。我們預計消費需求不久後就會加速上升，從而推高第二季度GDP增長率。”