中國房地產開發商將面臨生死考驗(下)

Mr. Peng says that last year developers "were still somewhat resistant to our rates." He adds: "Now they don't see a light at the end of the tunnel."

蓬鋼說，去年的時候，開發商對我們的利率還有些牴觸，現在他們已經是窮途末路了。

Trust-company managers, fund executives and analysts say China's four asset-management corporations have emerged as by far the biggest players in the distressed property market, and without their involvement trusts would be short the cash they need to repay investors by a lot. China's trust companies are mainly controlled by banks, other major state-owned firms or local governments, although some foreign financial institutions hold minority stakes. At the end of March they had 5.3 trillion yuan of assets under management, more than double the amount two years ago.

信託公司經理人、基金經理和分析人士說，到目前爲止，中國的四家資產管理公司已經成爲低迷房地產市場的最重要角色，如果沒有它們的參與，信託公司就會缺乏償還投資者所需要的資金。中國的信託公司主要受銀行、其他重要國有企業或地方政府控制，但一些外資金融機構也持有少數股權。截至今年3月底，它們管理的資產有5.3萬億元，是兩年前水平的兩倍多。

The "bad banks" - China Cinda Asset Management Co., China Huarong Asset Management Corp., China Orient Asset Management Corp. and China Great Wall Asset Management Corp.- were set up at the turn of the century, but where similar institutions overseas have been shut down after disposing of bad loans, China's "bad banks" have evolved into some of the biggest, most diversified financial institutions in the economy. One of the ways the bad banks get involved is by stepping in before a developer defaults, effectively taking over the trust loan, albeit with higher returns and a longer life. They also can step in and buy a developer's other outstanding debts-such as accounts payable - while demanding collateral in return, which similarly frees up the developer to repay its trust loan.

中國的四家“壞賬銀行”設立於世紀之交，分別是信達資產管理股份有限公司(China Cinda Asset Management Co.)、中國華融資產管理公司(China Huarong Asset Management Corp.)、中國東方資產管理公司(China Orient Asset Management Corp.)和中國長城資產管理公司(China Great Wall Asset Management Corp.)。在其他國家，類似機構在處理完壞賬之後就會關閉，但中國的“壞賬銀行”已經演變成整個經濟體中幾家規模最大、最多元化的金融機構。壞賬銀行的參與方式之一是在開發商破產之前進入，事實上接管信託貸款，但要求的回報更高、期限更長。它們同樣也可以收購開發商的應付賬款等其他債務，同時要求開發商提供抵押，這樣做同樣也可以讓開發商騰出手來償還信託貸款。

Still, the asset-management firms are unlikely to have the appetite to bail out every trust loan. "Our aim is not to help develop property, but to resolve the short-term liquidity squeeze," said Li Xin, a vice president at China Orient.

不過，資產管理公司不太可能有意願救助每一筆信託貸款。中國東方資產管理公司副總裁李欣說，我們的目的不是幫助開發商開發房地產，而是解決短期流動性吃緊問題。

Mr. Wei's story highlights the desperation of smaller property developers. The chairman of what domestic real-estate agents said was the biggest developer in the northern Chinese city of Baotou, he struck it rich in 1996 by helping rebuild the city following an earthquake. His flagship development was a five-phase mid- to high-end residential project that was slated for completion next year.

魏剛的故事集中體現了小型開發商的無奈與絕望。國內房地產中介說，魏剛任董事長的公司是包頭最大的房地產開發企業。他在1996年通過參與包頭震後重建發了一筆財。該企業的旗艦開發項目是一個五期中高端住宅樓盤，按計劃要在明年完工。

But he borrowed heavily from loan sharks, and started to run into repayment difficulties this year, according to a friend of Mr. Wei's and people in Baotou's real-estate industry. One beating from the loans sharks left him in the hospital for a month, according to the friend.

但據魏剛的一個朋友和包頭房地產業內人士說，魏剛從高利貸者手中借了很多錢，今年開始還款出現困難。據這位朋友說，他還曾因爲被放高利貸的人毆打而住院一個月。

On June 6, Mr. Wei's body was found hanging in his room at the Jintuo Hotel in Donghe, according to police. "I was astonished to learn about Wei's death," the friend said. "I could never imagine he would choose to kill himself."

據警方說，6月6日，有人發現魏剛的遺體懸掛在東河區金駝酒店的一間客房內。前述這位朋友說，得知魏剛的死訊我非常震驚，他會選擇結束自己的生命，我完全無法想象。

In a recent report, Standard & Poor's said it expects developers with large trust loans to meet their debts by aggressively cutting prices or selling assets, tipping average prices down 10%.

渣打銀行(Standard & Poor)前不久發表報告說，預計借了大量信託貸款的開發商將會通過大幅降價或出售資產來償債，估計房價將會平均下降10%。

But "when the pinch starts to bite, benign price discounting could turn into a price war," it said.

但報告說，當壓力開始讓某些人承受不住時，良性讓價有可能演變成一場價格戰。