中國房地產開發商將面臨生死考驗(上)

Hounded by loan sharks, the once-highflying real-estate king of Baotou, a boom city of about two million people in Inner Mongolia, finally reached his breaking point. Last month, Wei Gang checked into a hotel and hanged himself, according to local police.

由於被高利貸者逼得走投無路，曾經風光無限的包頭市房地產大王最終再也承受不住巨大的壓力。當地警方說，上個月，魏剛入住一家酒店，在那裏上吊自殺。

Mr. Wei's suicide comes as China's smaller property developers face mounting financial distress after two years of tightening credit, an effort by the government to squeeze out speculators and make homes more affordable.

魏剛自殺事件發生之前，中國的信貸收緊政策已經持續兩年，中國的小型房地產開發商的融資壓力正與日俱增。中國政府收緊信貸的目的是打擊房地產市場的投機活動，讓房價趨於合理水平。

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services says China's more than 80,000 developers could face a battle for survival as a wave of short-term property loans fall due this year. The risk is that these businesses could become so desperate they will either default, leaving behind half-finished projects at a time economic growth already is slowing, or start offering steep discounts, triggering a price war.

標準普爾評級服務公司(Standard & Poor's Ratings Services)說，由於一批短期房地產貸款將在今年到期，中國超過8萬家房地產開發商可能面臨一場生死存亡的考驗。這些企業有可能會孤注一擲地違約，在中國經濟已經開始放緩的情況下留下一堆爛尾樓，或是開始大幅降價，引發價格戰。

Some developers, like Mr. Wei, turned to loan sharks who illegally charge interest rates of up to 5% a month.

一些開發商與魏剛一樣，向放高利貸的人求助。高利貸的利息最高可達每月5%，這是違反中國法律規定的。

But the greater problem lies with developers who rely for funding on trust companies, a type of wealth-management firm that took over as the main source of legal new lending to the property sector after Beijing reined in banks last year. In recent months, China's banking regulator has all but stopped trust companies from rolling over loans to developers.

但是靠信託公司獲得融資的房地產開發商的問題更大。信託公司是一種財富管理公司，在中國政府去年加緊了對銀行放貸的限制之後，信託公司已經成爲房地產行業新的合法貸款的主要來源。最近幾個月，中國的銀行業監管機構幾乎已經禁止信託公司給開發商貸款續期。

Securities brokerage China International Capital Corp. estimates that about 223 billion yuan ($35 billion) of trust loans are due to mature this year, almost half of which reach maturity between July and September, with a further 282 billion yuan due next year. Combined, that represents almost 75% of all outstanding trust financing to the property sector at the end of 2011.

證券經紀商中國國際金融有限公司(China International Capital Corp.)估計，今年將有人民幣2,230億元的信託貸款到期，其中大約一半將在7月到9月之間到期，另外有2,820億元的信託貸款將在明年到期。加在一起，這相當於房地產行業2011年末所有未償信託貸款的75%。

Traditionally, Chinese banks have been reluctant to force anyone into bankruptcy. But China's trust companies are different, demanding that developers back loans with big amounts of collateral, sometimes up to three times the actual value of the loan, as insurance against default. Still, trusts prefer the developers to make repayments on time, despite the potential windfall default would bring, as they need to deliver a return to investors promptly at the maturity of the loans.

中資銀行傳統上一直不願強迫貸款者進入破產程序。但是中國的信託公司則不同，它們要求開發商申請貸款時提供大量擔保，有時，擔保的價值甚至高達實際貸款額的三倍，以防止開發商違約。儘管違約可能會讓信託公司獲得意外之財，但信託公司還是希望開發商能夠及時還款，因爲它們需要在貸款到期時立刻向投資者進行支付。

In recent months, some of China's better-financed developers, those with better access to bank loans and bond markets, have waded back into the land market to replenish low inventories and take advantage of prices that are well off their 2010 peaks. But with property sales between January and May down 9% from a year earlier, many developers don't have the income to repay maturing trust loans and are looking for cash elsewhere.

最近幾個月，中國一些財務狀況較好的開發商（更容易通過銀行貸款和債券市場獲得融資的開發商）回到了土地市場，利用目前遠低於2010年峯值的價格補充庫存。但是由於1月到5月的房屋銷量同比下降了9%，許多開發商沒有足夠的收入用以支付到期的信託貸款，他們正在尋找其他資金來源。

Developers are seeking financing from a crop of newly formed real-estate investment funds, as well as the asset-management corporations, also known as "bad banks," that originally were set up more than a decade ago to dispose of nonperforming loans at China's banks.

開發商們正在尋求從一些新成立的房地產投資基金以及資產管理公司那裏融資。資產管理公司也被稱爲“壞賬銀行”。十幾年前設立資產管理公司的初衷就是爲了清理中資銀行的壞賬。

"We're drinking from a fire hose. We can't handle the volume," said Greg Peng, president of property investment fund AT Investment Management, about the number of developers that have approached him for capital.

房地產投資基金安泰盤實股權投資管理有限公司(AT Investment Management)董事長蓬鋼說，希望從他那裏獲得融資的開發商數量太多了，我們根本無力提供這麼多資金。

Mr. Peng, who used to run Merrill Lynch's property investments in China, closed the first part of his fund in the third quarter of last year, raising one billion yuan from domestic investors, and plans to have invested three billion yuan by the middle of next year. His fund expects to return investors at least 25% annually, significantly higher than trusts, which typically range between 10% and 20%. The fund targets projects near completion and demands developers put up large amounts of collateral to ensure the fund a hefty return even if property values fall sharply.

蓬鋼曾經掌管美林公司(Merrill Lynch)在中國的房地產投資。他在去年第三季度完成了基金的第一輪資金募集，從國內投資者手中融資人民幣10億元，並計劃在明年年中以前完成30億元的投資。安泰盤實基金的預期年回報率至少爲25%，遠高於一般信託基金10%到20%的回報率。該基金以接近完工的項目爲目標，要求開發商提供大量擔保，以確保基金在房價大幅下降的情況下仍有高額回報。