關注社會:我爲何看好中國經濟增長

China's economy will probably grow by less than 8 per cent this year due to weak international demand and a sluggish domestic real estate market. Now the talk among China-watchers is that it is approaching a breaking point on its path of growth: the episode of high growth is over and the country is heading towards a path in the range of 6-7 per cent.

今年中國的經濟增速很可能低於8%，主要是受海外需求疲軟以及國內房地產市場降溫影響。當前，關注中國經濟形勢的觀察家普遍認爲，中國已逼近自身增長路徑的轉折點——高速增長階段告一段落，未來中國經濟增長率或在6%至7%的區間內徘徊。

This mood is strong inside China. When Justin Yifu Lin, who just returned to China from his position as chief economist of the World Bank, announced China would keep growing by 8 per cent before 2030, the Chinese media dubbed his claim as "shooting a satellite" – a phrase referring to the widespread phenomenon of output exaggeration in the Great Leap-forward of 1958.

這種論調在國內很有市場。當不久前剛卸任世界銀行首席經濟學家回國的林毅夫預言中國經濟有望在2030年以前保持8%的年均增速時，國內媒體紛紛調侃他在"放衛星"——在1958年開始的大躍進期間，"放衛星"常被用於形容普遍存在的誇大產出現象。

China's slowdown is bad news for countries that are linked to its production chain. This includes East and Southeast Asian countries, regions that export to China, as well as China's raw material and energy providers such as Australia, Brazil and the traditional oil producers. However, China's slowdown can be good news for the developed world, especially the US. My colleague Yiping Huang and David Li, professor at Tsinghua University, both believe that the share of household consumption in GDP has increased in the past several years. China's current account surplus also declined substantially to a mere 2.8 per cent of gross domestic product last year.

中國經濟增長放緩對於產業鏈相關國家來說是壞消息，這包括東亞和東南亞地區的對華出口國，澳大利亞、巴西、傳統產油國等中國的原材料和能源供給國。但中國經濟增速放緩可能利好發達國家，尤其是美國。我的同事黃益平教授以及清華大學的李稻葵教授都認爲，過去幾年間家庭消費在GDP中所佔比重有所上升。去年中國經常項目順差佔GDP比重也大幅下降至僅爲2.8%的水平。

There are good reasons to believe China's slowdown is permanent. The growth of China's labour force has been falling since 2010 and by 2020 its stock will start to decline. In accordance, wages are increasing fast; China's episode of cheap growth is approaching its end. On the international stage, the eurozone has fallen into recession again and the light of recovery is still deep in the tunnel. In the US, federal government debts will grow to more than 100 per cent of GDP even by the most conservative estimates.

固然有不少理由可以使人相信中國經濟增速放緩將是長期性的。中國勞動人口增速自2010年起持續下滑，並且到2020年勞動人口總數將開始收縮。與此同時，工資水平快速上升；中國經濟的低成本增長階段接近尾聲。國際方面，歐元區再度陷入經濟衰退，並且復甦希望渺茫；而在美國，即使按最保守的估計，聯邦政府債務規模佔GDP比重也將突破100%。

However, an international comparison gives hope that China may be able to maintain an 8 per cent growth rate for at least another decade. China's per-capita GDP is about the level of Japan's in 1962 and the level of Korea's in 1982. Both countries grew by 9.7 per cent in the following 10 years after they reached China's per-capita income of today. A contrast is Brazil. It reached China's current per-capita GDP in 1978 but then stagnated for more than 20 years. But the Brazilian case – and for that matter, those of other Latin American countries – is peculiar because its stagnation was triggered by a sovereign debt crisis. China has a sound – even too good by many opinions – international balance of payment and a Latin American-type of crisis is a remote possibility for the country.

但通過與其他國家橫向比較，我認爲中國經濟至少在本十年內有望保持8%的年均增速。中國現階段人均GDP水平與日本1962年和韓國1982年的水平相當。日韓兩國在達到中國當前人均GDP水平後的十年間雙雙實現了9.7%的年均經濟增長。一個反例是巴西，該國1978年即已達到中國現有人均GDP水平，但在其後的二十幾年間一直處於停滯狀態。不過巴西以及其他拉丁美洲國家的例子具有特殊性，因其經濟蕭條是由主權債務危機引發的。而中國的國際收支情況良好——很多人甚至認爲是過好了——發生拉美式經濟危機的可能性很小。

Inside the country, several factors will help China maintain fast growth in the next several decades. The most significant is continuous improvement of young people's educational achievement. The bulk of China's workforce is rural migrants. Compared with a decade ago, men in rural areas aged between 21 and 29 have two more years of schooling today and women in the same age group have 2.6 years more. In the city, the average years of schooling have reached 11 for both men and women in the same age group. The government has announced a national plan of education for 2020. One of its aims is to allow rural young people to finish high school (including professional high school) education. Another aim is to raise the college enrolment rate to 40 per cent.

在中國國內，幾個方面的因素將有助於中國在未來幾十年保持較快增長。其中最重要的一點是青年受教育水平的不斷提高。中國勞動力的主體是來自農村地區的流動人口。相對於十年前，農村地區21至29歲男女青年的受教育年限分別增長了2年和2.6年。而在城市地區，21至29歲男女青年的平均受教育年限都達到11年。中國政府頒佈了國家中長期教育改革和發展規劃綱要(2010-2020年)，其中戰略目標之一是在農村地區普及高中教育（包括職業高中），另一戰略目標是將高等教育毛入學率提升至40%。

The return to education is high, averaging 10 per cent for one additional year of schooling. The schooling gap between people aged from 21 to 29 and those between 50 and 59 is 4.3 years. This means the new generation is 43 per cent more productive than the old and retiring generation. This will more than offset the loss of labour in the coming decade. Nobel Prize laureate Robert Fogel predicts China's economy would be 40 per cent of the world total in real terms by 2040. I asked him if this prediction was too optimistic when I met him in Chicago last November. His answer was no. Instead, he believed that improvement of education alone would allow China to do that.

教育回報很高，教育年限增加1年帶來的平均回報率高達10%。目前21至29歲人羣的受教育年限較50至59歲人羣高出了4.3年。這意味着新一代勞動者的生產率相對於即將退休的年齡組高出了43%。這將足以彌補未來十年可能出現的勞動力人數下降問題所造成的影響。諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者羅伯特•福格爾(Robert Fogel)預計，按實際值計量，到2040年中國經濟規模佔全球經濟總量之比將達到40%。去年11月我在芝加哥見到福格爾時，曾問他該預測是否過於樂觀。他給出了否定回答。正相反，他認爲單憑教育水平提升就足以讓中國達到上述水平。

Improvement of education is supplemented by the Chinese government's investment in research and development. By the 12th Five-Year Programme, R&D expenditure will be increased from the current 1.7 per cent of GDP to 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2015. This will place China close to the rank of developed countries.

除發展教育以外，中國政府還計劃加大在研發領域的投入。根據十二五規劃綱要，2015年研發經費佔GDP比重應達到2.2%，高於目前1.7%的水平。這將使中國的研發投入接近發達國家水平。

The world economy of this decade resembles that of the 1980s in many ways. On one count, it will probably be as sluggish as the 1980s. However, that decade witnessed the rise of the East Asian tigers. China has a much bigger economy than the tiger economies and export cannot be a long-term driver of its growth. But China can also benefit from having a large population. The recent growth of household consumption is an encouraging sign. It is likely that the country's economy will continue to turn to domestic consumption to look for growth. As the level of income increases, the advantage of a large country will only become stronger. In the end, China will be likely to maintain an average rate of growth of 8 per cent before 2020. This will probably allow the country to take over the US to become the largest economy in nominal term by 2020.

本十年世界經濟形勢在很多方面或與二十世紀八十年代相似。一方面，全球經濟增長可能和二十世紀八十年代一樣疲軟，但"東亞四小龍"卻是在二十世紀八十年代崛起的。中國的經濟規模遠大於四小龍，而且經濟增長也不可能長期依賴出口。但中國還是能從龐大人口中獲益。近期居民家庭消費呈現增長態勢是一個令人振奮的信號。中國經濟很可能繼續從國內消費環節中尋找增長源泉。隨着居民收入水平的提高，大國優勢只會變得更加明顯。綜上，中國有較大可能在2020年前保持8%的年均增速。這可能使中國在2020年以前超越美國，成爲按名義值計算全球第一大的經濟體。