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MH370搜救遭遇信息共享屏障

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MH370搜救遭遇信息共享屏障

The hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 now depends on the willingness of governments and the military across Asia to hand over potentially sensitive radar and satellite data.

對馬來西亞航空公司(Malaysia Airlines)失聯班機MH370的搜索行動,下一步將主要取決於亞洲各國政府和軍方是否願意交出可能較爲敏感的雷達和衛星數據。

Satellite data provided by London-based company Inmarsat have been crucial, but not enough, in the task of pinpointing the plane.

位於倫敦的國際海事衛星組織(Inmarsat)提供的衛星數據非常關鍵,但還不足以準確定位失聯航班。

The Boeing airliner’s last communication was with an Inmarsat satellite at 8.11am local time on March 8, more than seven hours after it took off from Kuala Lumpur on a flight to Beijing with 239 people on board. Without other data, investigators are unable to plot where it went next.

這架由波音公司(Boeing)生產的客機在當地時間3月8日上午8點11分與國際海事衛星組織的一顆衛星取得了聯絡,這是這架客機與外界的最後一次通訊,此時距離它從吉隆坡起飛已經過去了7個多小時。該班機本應飛往北京,機上共有乘客239人。在缺乏其他數據的情況下,調查人員無法判斷班機下一步去往何方。

But with scant history of international co-operation on intelligence sharing – and in some cases outright hostility – there are reasons to doubt whether Malaysia will get the data it needs as it leads a 26-country search for the aircraft 11 days after it disappeared.

但考慮到在情報共享方面缺乏國際合作的先例——在某些情況下各國之間的態度甚至徹底敵對——馬來西亞很可能得不到其所需要的數據。該國領導了一項有26個國家參與的搜索行動,目前距離航班失蹤已經過去了11天。

The search involves two corridors stretching from Kazakhstan and Pakistan in the north, across India and to southeast Asia and Australia in the south.

搜索行動覆蓋了兩條走廊地帶,北部一線從哈薩克斯坦延伸到巴基斯坦,南部一線從印度穿過東南亞直至澳大利亞。

“If we are talking about a multilateral effort that relies on sharing of intelligence, I think we are in uncharted waters. Information and intelligence sharing is always a very sensitive issue,” said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

新加坡東南亞研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)高級研究員伊恩•斯托裏(Ian Storey)表示:“如果我們討論的是依賴於情報共享的多國搜索行動,那麼我認爲我們目前處於一片無人探查過的未知領域。信息和情報共享永遠是一個非常敏感的問題。”

The search has now widened from an initial stretch of the South China Sea to a vast area of ocean measuring more than 2m sq nautical miles and land roughly equal to two-thirds of the land mass of the US.

搜索範圍已從最初的南中國海水域擴展至面積超過200萬平方海里的廣闊海域,以及約等同於美國陸地面積三分之二的陸地區域。

Malaysia has asked countries for radar data, as well as satellite data and analysis.

馬來西亞請求各國提供雷達數據、衛星數據以及情報分析。

The hope is that this, together with the Inmarsat information, will allow investigators to plot the airliner’s last trajectory – although Malaysia Airlines has confirmed it had only 30 minutes of fuel left when last in contact with the Inmarsat satellite, over the northern Strait of Malacca.

調查人員希望藉助這些數據以及由國際海事衛星組織提供的信息,推測出失聯班機最後的飛行軌跡,雖然馬航已經證實,失聯班機在最後一次與國際海事衛星組織的衛星聯繫時——當時班機位於馬六甲海峽北部上空——燃料存量僅夠其繼續飛行30分鐘。

In some cases, countries will be asked if their military have radar data that could help. But with information sharing between military authorities generally taking place only bilaterally, analysts say some may hold back key data.

在某些情況下,各國可能會被問到其軍方是否擁有對搜索行動有幫助的雷達數據。但鑑於軍方信息通常僅會在兩國之間共享,分析師們認爲一些國家可能會在關鍵數據上有所隱瞞。

“Generally, military intelligence sharing among southeast Asian states has been minimal – the prevailing strategic uncertainties coupled with political distrust, resource constraints and varying technological capabilities have precluded military transparency,” said Michael Raska of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

新加坡拉惹勒南國際研究院(S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies)的邁克爾•拉斯卡(Michael Raska)表示:“通常來說,東南亞國家之間的軍事情報共享非常少見——除了戰略上的不確定性這一主要原因以外,政治上的不信任、資源限制、以及參差不齊的技術水平也導致了軍事情報的不透明。”