誰來爲MH370搜索行動買單

Investigators now look closer to solving the riddle of where missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 met its end. But they still have little idea why, so the search for the wreckage, and the all-important black box data recorder, goes on.

調查人員看上去正逐漸解開馬來西亞航空公司(Malaysia Airlines) MH370航班的最終下落之謎。但他們仍對失事原因幾乎一無所知，因此，搜索飛機殘骸以及最重要的黑匣子（飛行數據記錄器）的行動繼續進行。

So far, cost seems to have been no object. When Hishammuddin Hussein was asked recently how much money was being spent on the search, the Malaysian defence minister stressed it had not been an issue in discussions with other countries.

迄今成本似乎不是一個問題。當希沙姆丁•侯賽因(Hishammuddin Hussein)最近被問及各方在搜索行動中投入了多少經費時，這位馬來西亞國防部長強調，那個問題從來沒有與其他國家討論過。

“Nobody, not the Malaysian government, none of our partners, have talked about dollars and cents,” he said on Saturday. “It is all about trying to find the aircraft. It did not even cross our minds.”

“沒有人，無論是馬來西亞政府還是我們的任何合作伙伴，曾經談到美元和美分，”他在上週六表示。“一切努力是爲了找到飛機。我們想都沒想經費的事。”

But the longer the search continues, the more countries may have to consider their commitment to what could be a long haul – it took two years to find the black box in the case of Air France flight 447, which crashed into the Atlantic in 2009.

但是，搜索行動持續越久，就越可能會有一些國家不得不考慮自己對這場可能曠日持久的行動的承諾。以2009年在大西洋失事的法國航空公司(Air France) 447航班爲例，有關方面花了兩年時間纔打撈起黑匣子。

Since MH370 vanished on March 8, Malaysia has received help from more than two dozen countries, including Australia, Japan, China, the UK, New Zealand and the US.

自MH370航班在3月8日消失以來，馬來西亞已經從20多個國家，包括澳大利亞、日本、中國、英國、新西蘭和美國等得到了幫助。

The Pentagon has set aside $4m, but that is expected to run out in early April. The US has not said how much more it would provide, but Rear Admiral John Kirby, Pentagon spokesman, last week said it would “stay with this as long as the Malaysians need our help”.

五角大樓已撥出400萬美元，但這筆經費預計將在4月初用完。美國尚未表示還將出多少力，但五角大樓發言人、海軍少將約翰•柯比(Rear Admiral John Kirby)上週表示，美國將“繼續參與這場行動——只要馬來西亞方面需要我們的幫助”。

China faces more pressure than most countries to stay the course because 153 of its nationals were on the flight, making the issue one of “political face”, says Rory Medcalf, an Asia security expert at the Lowy Institute.

澳大利亞羅維國際政策學院(Lowy Institute)的亞洲安全事務專家羅裏•梅德卡夫(Rory Medcalf)表示，與大多數國家相比，中國面臨更大壓力，因爲失事飛機上有153名中國公民，這要求中國堅持搜索，這個問題關係到中國的“政治面子”。

Beijing has sent 11 ships to what is known as the “southern corridor” – a search area that stretches from Malaysia to the southern Indian Ocean roughly 2,500km southwest of Perth. Two Chinese Ilyushin IL-76 transport aircraft arrived in Perth at the weekend, joining the international reconnaissance operations yesterday.

北京方面已向被稱爲“南部走廊”的搜索區域（從馬來西亞延伸至南印度洋）派出11艘艦船，目前搜索力量集中在澳大利亞珀斯西南方向大約2500公里處的海域。中國的兩架伊爾-76(Ilyushin IL-76)運輸機週末飛抵珀斯，昨日加入國際偵察行動。

Premier Li Keqiang has said China will continue “as long as there is a glimmer of hope”. But although the search has become the country’s largest military operation beyond exercises, analysts say there are limits to what it would be able to do alone.

中國總理李克強曾表示，“只要有一線希望”，中國就應繼續盡最大努力。但是，儘管這場搜索已成爲中國除演習以外規模最大的軍事行動，但分析人士表示，中國單獨行動的能力是有限度的。

Gary Li, a Chinese military expert at IHS Maritime, said there were questions about sustainability if others cut their commitment, particularly since aircraft are more important for the search than ships.

IHS Maritime的中國軍事專家加里•李(Gary Li)表示，如果其它國家削減自己的承諾，持續搜索就會出現問題，尤其是鑑於在這場搜索行動中飛機比船舶更重要。

“They have to rely on the goodwill of others,” said Mr Li. “If China goes completely alone, they have very, very few options other than using ships and satellites – a very scaled down version of what we have now.”

“他們必須依靠別國的善意，”加里•李說。“如果中國完全單幹，他們除了使用船舶和衛星外，選擇很少——那樣的話，行動規模將遠遠小於我們目前所看到的規模。”

China has sent one Y-8 surveillance aircraft to Malaysia to fly search missions, but the aircraft does not have the range to reach the search area. While China could deploy the aircraft to Perth and fly missions from there, Mr Li said that would have security ramifications.

中國此前派出一架運-8偵察機到馬來西亞執行搜索任務，但該機的航程使其無法到達新的搜索區域執行任務。儘管中國可以將該機轉場至珀斯，從那裏起飛執行任務，但加里•李表示，那麼做會有安全後果。

“Any specialised Y-8 aircraft would run the risk of being analysed by other countries if it operated abroad, for very little in terms of search and rescue gain,” he said.

“任何運-8特種飛機如果在海外執行任務，都有受到別國分析的風險，而在搜救方面的獲益很小，”他表示。

Japan has committed 113 personnel and five aircraft – even more than the US – to the search, said Masaru Sato, a Japanese foreign ministry spokesman. But he declined to say how much had been budgeted for the operation.

日本外務省發言人佐藤勝(Masaru Sato)表示，日本已向這場搜索行動投入113名人員和5架飛機——規模甚至超過美國。但他拒絕透露日本方面爲這場行動編列了多少預算。

“The outlook for the search operations is yet to be decided. Japan will continue to extend as much assistance as possible.”

“搜索行動的前景仍有待明朗。日本將繼續盡力提供協助。”

Mr Medcalf said that with the search focused on the southern Indian Ocean, where satellites have detected possible debris, Australia, which has played a key role, would be unlikely to walk away.

梅德卡夫表示，隨着搜索集中在南印度洋（衛星在該處海域發現了疑似碎片），迄今扮演關鍵角色的澳大利亞將不太可能退出。

“Assuming that the search continues in the southern zone, the last countries to pull out will be Australia and China,” he said. Australia was involved “for the long haul”, said Mr Medcalf, partly because it had responsibility for search and rescue operations in the area, and also because Tony Abbott, the prime minister, last week revealed Australia had received “credible” leads from satellite images.

“假設搜索行動繼續在南部走廊展開，最後退出的國家將是澳大利亞和中國，”他說。梅德卡夫稱，澳大利亞已準備好投入長期行動，一方面是因爲該國負有在這個地區展開搜救行動的責任，另一方面也是因爲澳大利亞總理託尼•艾伯特(Tony Abbott)上週透露，該國從衛星圖像得到了“可信的”線索。

A spokesman for Warren Truss, Australia’s transport minister, said there were no plans to end the search soon and that Australia would “take it one day at a time”.

澳大利亞交通部長沃倫•特拉斯(Warren Truss)的發言人表示，短期內沒有計劃結束搜索行動，澳大利亞將“走一步看一步”。

“We haven’t considered the costs,” he said. “We have an obligation to the passengers and crew and their families.”

“我們還沒有考慮過成本，”他說。“我們對乘客、機組人員和他們的家人負有義務。”

Additional reporting by Jamie Smyth, Jeremy Grant and Julie Zhu

傑米•史密斯(Jamie Smyth)，傑里米•格蘭特(Jeremy Grant)和朱莉(Julie Zhu)補充報道