是誰爲泛太平洋貿易制定規則

WASHINGTON — While the United States and Japan dawdle over the last details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, China is moving to fill the vacuum. Beijing is intent on defining trade relations in the Asia Pacific for the 21st century.

華盛頓——美國和日本就跨太平洋夥伴關係（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）最後的細節久拖不決之時，中國正積極地填補空白。北京已經下定決心，要爲21世紀的亞太地區設定貿易關係框架。

As host of the approaching Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings, which take place just a week after America’s midterm elections, Beijing has been pushing for a post-meetings declaration that will lock in its vision of free trade — language that will, according to reports, endorse the so-called Beijing road map, which does not include the T.P.P. As the United States trade representative, Michael Froman, said, “We do not expect to have a final agreement on T.P.P. at APEC.”

亞太經濟合作組織(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)峯會的召開，就在美國中期選舉之後一週。作爲APEC會議的東道主，北京已經在推動一份會後的宣言了。這份宣言會確定其自由貿易願景，據報道，措辭會支持所謂的北京合作藍圖，其中並不包括TPP。就像美國貿易代表邁克爾·費羅曼(Michael Froman)所說的，“我們並不期待在APEC會議期間，就TPP達成最後協議。”

The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement would bring broad economic benefits for a vast majority of citizens in the 12 countries that would be signatories to the deal — including Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Mexico and Vietnam, among others. The T.P.P. would set high standards for regulatory systems, rules on intellectual property and fair competition — standards that China should aspire to but cannot currently meet.

TPP協議將會爲12個締約國的絕大多數民衆，帶來廣泛的經濟利益，包括澳大利亞、新加坡、馬來西亞、墨西哥和越南等國。TPP也會爲監管體系、知識產權規則和公平競爭，設置很高的標準，都是中國應該努力追求、但目前達不到的標準。

So as well as promoting its alternative plan to shape the region’s economic future by means of an Asia-Pacific free trade area with considerably lower standards, Beijing is betting that the small number of vocal opponents of the T.P.P. in America and Japan will derail the agreement. For the T.P.P. parties, failure to conclude an agreement would have untold costs, as countries like China that pursue mercantilist, government-directed economic policies would be emboldened to set the terms of trade in the Asia-Pacific region.

所以，除了推動自己的方案，以標準明顯更低的亞太自貿區，塑造該地區的經濟未來之外，北京還期望美國和日本國內一小部分尖銳反對TPP的人，能夠破壞相關協議。對TPP的參與方來說，無法簽訂協議會造成難以估量的後果，因爲中國這種追求重商主義，由政府主導經濟政策的國家，會受到鼓勵，來爲亞太地區設置貿易規則。

China understands that democratic systems like those of the United States and Japan show great deference to the interests of small groups. They protect minorities from the tyranny of a majority. In effective democracies, however, the interests of small groups are protected not through stalemate and inaction, but through compromise, as new policies move forward for the overall benefit of a country.

中國明白，美國和日本這樣的民主政體，會對小羣體的利益給予極大的尊重。它們保護少數羣體免受多數人暴政的侵害。然而在有效的民主體制裏，保護小羣體的手段並不是僵持不下的不作爲，而是要通過妥協，爲了國家的整體利益推動新政策。

Trade negotiations test democracies to their limits. In the final phases, weary negotiators attempt to find common ground. Small interest groups that fear being disadvantaged become more shrill and intransigent; larger business and industry stakeholders that would gain by the deal fall largely silent; and the public, which would gain most of all, is confused. Media coverage is saturated with ever more strident rhetoric over ever narrower issues, overshadowing the fundamental interests at stake.

貿易談判對民主體制的極限提出了考驗。在最後階段，疲憊的談判代表試圖各讓一步達成共識，然而擔心利益受損的小利益集團卻會發出更爲尖銳的聲音、更加頑固；將從協議中受益的規模較大的工商界利益相關方，基本上會保持沉默；絕大多數民衆會從協議中受益，但他們已經被搞糊塗了。媒體報道則充滿越來越強硬的言論，針對的議題卻越來越狹窄，遮蓋了其中涉及的根本利益。

This is the stage we have reached in the American-Japanese negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Public debate has become dominated by, on one hand, the profits of pork farmers in Japan and the United States and, on the other, political maneuvering to assign blame in anticipation of a failure to close a deal.

美國與日本就TPP舉行的談判就來到了這個階段。公共辯論的主導議題，一方面是日本和美國養豬業者的利潤，另一方面是來自政界不斷的動作，以確定在無法達成協議時該指責誰。

Lost in the discussion are the advantages to both countries’ overall national interest and an overwhelming majority of their respective citizens. Few voices are heard saying that a T.P.P. agreement will establish American-Japanese leadership in setting a course that will enable greater prosperity throughout the Asia Pacific region.

公衆討論中所欠缺的，是它對兩國的整體國家利益，以及各自國家的絕大多數民衆有哪些好處。我們極少聽到有人說，TPP協議能夠讓美國和日本取得領導權，規劃出一條路線，從而促進整個亞太地區實現更大的繁榮。

It is time to make the compromises necessary to close a deal that will set the standard for international business in the future. Critically, a small number of relatively minor issues must not block an agreement between two of the world’s three largest economies.

現在應當做出必要的讓步，達成協議，從而爲未來的國際商業活動樹立標準。至關重要的一點是，世界前三大經濟體中的兩個國家之間的一項協議，不應當因爲少量相對輕微的問題而受到阻撓。

The T.P.P. will provide an American- and Japanese-led framework for business in the world’s center of economic power. It will establish the best practices already observed by American and Japanese companies for a trading area of nearly 800 million consumers in 12 countries. And it will be open to new members, including China, that are willing to accept the high standards that the T.P.P. will demand.

TPP能夠在世界經濟的核心地區，建立起一個由美國和日本領導的國際商業框架。它將爲一個包含12個國家、擁有近8億人口的貿易區，建立起美國和日本企業已經在遵循的最佳行爲準則。它也歡迎新成員的加入，包括中國，只要它們願意接受TPP提出的高標準。

It’s important to note that China has expressed interest in joining the T.P.P. — even if this reflects a view in Beijing that the agreement is more inevitable than desirable. While China’s accession to the T.P.P. would place the world’s second-largest economy on a more certain and stable path, it would do so based on rules developed under the leadership of free-market democracies. Many of the areas in which weak World Trade Organization rules have failed to level the playing field for foreign companies in China would be strengthened under the T.P.P., making China a better place to do business.

需要注意，中國已經表達了加入TPP的興趣，不過這只是反映出，中國更多是認爲該協議無法避免，卻未必樂於加入該協議。中國加入TPP，會讓這個世界第二大經濟體，走上更加確定和穩定的道路，而且中國在這樣做時所遵循的規則，也是在信奉自由市場的民主國家領導下制定的。在許多領域，世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)軟弱的規則，並沒有讓外國企業在中國享有平等的競爭環境，但在TPP之下，這些規則會得到加強，使中國成爲一個更適宜開展商業活動的國家。

China understands that the T.P.P. will reinforce the vital American-Japanese alliance. That alliance is, of course, the bedrock of the region’s security upon which the Asian economic miracle was built. As Japan assumes a more important international role, the T.P.P. provides additional strategic ties that will enhance Tokyo’s ability to manage relations with the countries that pose the greatest challenges.

中國理解TPP會增強美日之間至關重要的聯盟。而美日聯盟當然也是亞太地區安全的基石，正是在這種安全的環境之上，才構築起了亞洲的經濟奇蹟。隨着日本承擔起更重要的國際角色，TPP也會提供更強的戰略聯繫，從而爲日本賦予更強的能力，來管理與那些構成最大挑戰的國家之間的關係。

A failure to conclude the T.P.P. would be a terrible setback. In place of establishing joint leadership in a rules-based regional economic system based on free-market principles, the American-Japan relationship would suffer from a period of mutual recriminations and loss of trust and cooperation. As both President Obama and Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, have stressed, the time for bold action to conclude the T.P.P. is at hand. China’s bet against Japan and the United States has only reinforced the urgency of closing the deal.

如果不能簽訂TPP，將會是一個糟糕的挫折。無法基於自由市場原則，在一個遵守規則的地區經濟體系裏，建立共同的領導地位，美日兩國就會在一段時間裏相互指責，失去信任並減少雙邊合作，進而對雙邊關係造成衝擊。就像奧巴馬總統和日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)強調的，果斷採取行動，簽訂TPP協議的機遇就在眼前。中國認定日本和美國無法達成共識，更讓這份協議的簽訂顯得頗具緊迫感。