年"有望"成爲有史以來最熱的一年(圖)

New data from some of the world's leading climate researchers and institutions suggest that 2010 is shaping up to be one of the warmest years ever recorded.

Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.

Satellite monitoring by the NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado, shows that the melting of sea ice has been unusually fast this year, with as much as 40,000 sq km now disappearing daily.

The melt season started almost a month later than normal at the end of March and is not expected to end until September.

Meanwhile, research from the polar science centre at the University of Washington suggests that the volume of sea ice in March 2010 was 20,300 cubic km, 38% below the 1979 level when records began.

Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).

In a paper which is yet to be peer-reviewed but has been submitted to the journal Reviews of Geophysics, they suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean, and that the global temperature for 2010 will exceed the 2005 record.

Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics' claims that global warming "stopped" in 1998.

"Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010," he writes.

"It is likely that the 2010 global surface temperature ... will be a record.

"Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up ... we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s."

The Nasa research backs up findings by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the US national climate monitoring service that measures global temperatures by satellite. This has recorded the hottest ever first four months of a year.

As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years.

Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be "major", with winds of at least 111mph.

This is compared to an average six-month season of 11 named storms, six of which become hurricanes, two of them major.

來自世界主要氣候研究機構的新數據指出，2010將面臨有史以來最熱的一年的壓力。

美國國家冰雪數據中心的科學家們在今天的報告中說：北冰洋的海冰－浮在海洋表面的冰凍海水－正處於同一時期中最低的物理範圍，打破2007年的紀錄低點。

美國冰雪數據中心在博爾德和科羅拉多州的衛星監測顯示：今年海冰的融化速度異乎尋常地快，冰層以每天高達4萬平方公里的速度在消失。

海冰開始融化的時間比以往遲了一個月（以前從三月底開始融化），但會一直持續到9月，這是我們所沒有預料到的。

同時，來自華盛頓大學在極地科學研究中心的研究指出，2010的的海冰體積爲20,300立方千米，比1979年以來的最低記錄減少了38%。

據美國宇航局的氣候科學家詹姆斯.漢森及他的同事們指出，地球表面溫度也可能創最高紀錄。

有一篇論文（該論文已通過行業審批，還未出版）顯示，在過去的12個月裏，地球平均溫度比1951年至1980年的平均值高0.65攝氏度，到2010年，地球溫度將超過2005的最高紀錄，創下新高。

被譽爲研究氣候變化的科學家之一，漢森駁回人們的質疑，質疑者聲稱全球變暖將止步於1998年。

“2010年，地球表面溫度似乎會創新紀錄。”他寫到。

“全球變暖還在繼續，沒有停止...我們估計，從70年代末開始，每十年上升0.15~0.2度的全球變暖趨勢沒有減少。”

美國宇航局的研究支持了由美國家海洋和大氣協會通過衛星測量全球氣溫的調查結果，該調查結果紀錄了歷史來最熱的前四個月。

在外海平面溫度的作用下，這周正式進入大西洋颶風季節－預計是最強烈的一年。

上週，美國國家海洋和大氣局預測今年風季將有14-23個風暴，包括8-14個颶風，其中3-7個是大範圍的，風速每小時至少達到111英里。而以往的風季平均長達六個月，只有11個命名爲風暴，其中6個轉變成颶風，只有2個是有大範圍。