大寒潮 年成爲有史以來最熱的一年

Scientists reported Wednesday that 2015 was the hottest year in recorded history by far, breaking a record set only the year before — a burst of heat that has continued into the new year and is roiling weather patterns all over the world.

科學家週三宣佈，2015年是有記錄以來最熱的一年，刷新了2014年才創下的紀錄——這種趨勢延續到了新的一年，擾亂了世界各地的氣象規律。

In the continental United States, the year was the second-warmest on record, punctuated by a December that was both the hottest and the wettest since record-keeping began. One result has been a wave of unusual winter floods coursing down the Mississippi River watershed.

在美國本土，去年是有記錄以來第二熱的一年，而去年12月是最熱、降水量最多的一個月。因此在密西西比河流域，出現了一波不同尋常的冬季洪水。

Scientists started predicting a global temperature record months ago, in part because an El weather pattern, one of the largest in a century, is dumping an immense amount of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. But the bulk of the record-setting heat, they say, is a consequence of the long-term planetary warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

數月前，科學家們開始預計，全球氣溫記錄會被刷新，部分原因是出現了百年一遇的強烈厄爾尼諾現象(El )，將太平洋的熱浪送進大氣。但是，他們說，在這種創紀錄的氣溫中，很大部分都是人類排放溫室氣體導致地球長期變暖的後果。

“The whole system is warming up, relentlessly,” said Gerald A. Meehl, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

“整個氣候系統都在變暖，勢不可擋”，位於科羅拉多州博爾德的國家大氣研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research)的科學家傑拉德·A·米爾(Gerald A. Meehl)表示。

It will take a few more years to know for certain, but the back-to-back records of 2014 and 2015 may have put the world back onto a trajectory of rapid global warming, after period of relatively slow warming dating to the last powerful El , in 1998.

1998年上次大型厄爾尼諾現象發生之後，曾出現了一個緩慢的升溫階段。但2014年和2015年連續刷新記錄，可能已經讓我們回到了全球迅速變暖的軌道。不過還需要幾年的時間才能確定這一點。

Politicians attempting to claim that greenhouse gases are not a problem seized on that slow period to argue that “global warming stopped in 1998” and similar statements, with these claims reappearing recently on the Republican presidential campaign trail.

一些政界人士試圖表明，溫室氣體不是什麼大事，他們以升溫放緩的階段爲依據，提出了“全球變暖在1998年就已停止”以及其他類似說法。最近，這些說法重新出現在了共和黨總統競選活動中。

Statistical analysis suggested all along that the claims were false, and the slowdown was, at most, a minor blip in an inexorable trend, perhaps caused by a temporary increase in the absorption of heat by the Pacific Ocean.

一直以來，統計分析都表明，這些說法並非事實，增速放緩充其量是必然趨勢中的一個小插曲，也許是太平洋吸收的熱量暫時增加所致。

“Is there any evidence for a pause in the long-term global warming rate?” said Gavin A. Schmidt, head of NASA’s climate-science unit, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in Manhattan. “The answer is no. That was true before last year, but it’s much more obvious now.”

“有任何證據表明全球變暖的長期速度出現停頓了嗎？答案是否定的。去年之前就是如此，只是現在的情況更加明顯了，”加文·A·施密特(Gavin A. Schmidt)說。他在美國航空航天局(NASA)位於曼哈頓的戈達德太空研究所(Goddard Institute for Space Studies)擔任所長。

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, calculated that if the global climate were not warming, the odds of setting two back-to-back record years would be remote, about one chance in every 1,500 pairs of years.

賓夕法尼亞州立大學(Pennsylvania State University)氣候科學家邁克爾·E·曼恩(Michael E. Mann)測算，如果全球氣候沒有在變暖，連續兩年刷新記錄的可能性非常小，大約每1500個兩年，纔會出現一次。

Given the reality that the planet is warming, the odds become far higher, about one chance in 10, by Dr. Mann’s calculations.

鑑於現實情況是地球正在變暖，這樣的可能性就大幅增加了。根據曼恩博士的計算，大約每10個兩年就會出現一次。

Two American government agencies, NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, compile separate analyses of the global temperature, based upon thousands of weather stations and ocean buoys scattered around the world.

美國的兩家政府機構，NASA和國家海洋與大氣管理局(NOAA)，採集了世界各地數以千計的氣象站和海洋浮標的信息，編寫了各自的全球氣溫分析報告。

They released their results on Wednesday morning, showing 2015 as the warmest year in a global record that began in 1880. Preliminary data from the Japan Meteorological Agency also show record warmth for 2015, and a British monitoring program is expected to report a similar result in coming weeks.

週三上午，NASA和NOAA發佈了分析結果，顯示自從1880年有全球氣象記錄以來，2015年是最熱的一年。日本氣象廳的初步數據也顯示2015年刷新了最熱記錄，英國的監測項目預計將在未來幾周內發佈類似結果。

NOAA previously reported that 2015 was the second-warmest year for the continental United States, after 2012.

NOAA此前曾發佈報告稱，2015年是美國本土第二熱的一年，僅次於2012年。

The intense warmth of 2015 contributed to a heat wave in India last spring that turns out to have been the second-worst in that country’s history, killing an estimated 2,500 people.

在2015年的高熱氣候中，印度去年春天出現了該國曆史上第二嚴重的熱浪，導致大約2500人喪生。

The strong El has continued into 2016, raising the possibility that this year, too, will set a global temperature record. The El pattern is also disturbing the circulation of the atmosphere, contributing to worldwide weather extremes that include a drought in southern Africa, threatening the food supply of millions.

強烈的厄爾尼諾現象一直持續到了2016年，因此今年很有可能再次刷新全球氣溫紀錄。厄爾尼諾還擾亂了大氣循環，加劇了全球範圍內的極端氣候，其中包括非洲南部發生旱災，對數以百萬計人口的糧食供應構成了威脅。