中俄天然氣供應協議爲期不遠

The saga over whether Russia will supply natural gas to China has always resembled rival families negotiating a marriage dowry. For a decade, the two sides have wanted different things.

俄羅斯與中國的天然氣供應談判就好像兩個合不來的家庭商量結婚的彩禮，十年來總是談不攏。

Now a match between the world's largest gas exporter and one of the world's fastest-growing gas markets seems within reach. That's in part because Russia is afraid that the longer it waits, the less it will get in dowry. And if the deal goes through, it has the potential to change the way Asia gets its Energy.

不過現在看來雙方達成交易的日子近在咫尺了。俄羅斯擔心拖得越久彩禮越少，而且與中國達成交易有望改變其向亞洲供應能源的方式。俄羅斯是全球最大的天然氣出口國，中國是全球增長最快的天然氣市場之一。

An outline of a deal hashed out last year would have Russia's state champion Gazprom supply counterpart China National Petroleum Corporation with 3.75 billion cubic feet a day for 30 years starting in 2018. China's current daily gas demand is about 16 billion cubic feet, which the government aims to double by 2020. Russia says the two sides have agreed on a price formula, but not an actual price. Now eyes turn to Vladimir Putin's May trip to China.

根據去年敲定的計劃，俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)將從2018年開始向中國石油天然氣集團公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)每天供應37.5億立方英尺天然氣，爲期30年。中國目前日均天然氣需求量約爲160億立方英尺，政府預計需求量到2020年將增長一倍。俄羅斯表示，雙方已經就定價模式而非實際價格達成一致。現在關注的焦點轉向普京(Vladimir Putin) 5月份對中國的訪問。

There's cause for optimism as market prices converge. The price Gazprom charges European customers has fallen to $11 per million BTU as the state giant gives discounts to ward off competition from countries such as Norway, says James Henderson at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

天然氣市場價格漸趨一致讓人們有理由對中俄達成協議感到樂觀。牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)的亨德森(James Henderson)表示，俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司對歐洲客戶的供應價格已降至11美元/百萬英國熱量單位(BTU)，該公司通過價格折扣應對挪威等國的競爭。

Meantime, China pays roughly $10 per million BTUs for pipeline gas from Turkmenistan and Myanmar. But China also recently pushed retail gas prices for the average resident in, say, Shanghai to nearly $15 per million BTU, according to Platts. Assuming it costs $4 to distribute gas from northeast China to Shanghai, China is ready for $11 gas at the border.

同時，中國從土庫曼斯坦和緬甸購買天然氣的價格大約是10美元/百萬BTU。但根據普氏能源資訊(Platts)的信息，中國最近將上海市普通居民的天然氣零售價格上調至近15美元/百萬BTU。如果從中國東北向上海輸送天然氣的成本爲4美元，那麼中國已經準備好接受11美元的到岸價格。

Gazprom's options won't get any better. Europe, the bedrock of the company's cash flow, looks sluggish, while Russian rivals muscle in on Gazprom's turf. In negotiating a price, global supply is also on China's side. The U.S. shale revolution, and U.S. moves to export gas in the next few years, provide Asia with another supply option. Then there's the more than seven billion cubic feet a day of Australian LNG capacity due to come online by 2017, says Nate Taplin at Gavekal, a research firm.

俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司也不會有更好的選擇。作爲其現金流基本來源的歐洲目前經濟低迷，而俄羅斯的競爭對手也在搶佔其市場份額。在價格談判方面，全球供應狀況也對中國有利。美國的頁岩氣革命和在未來幾年出口天然氣的打算給亞洲提供了一個新的供應選擇。研究公司Gavekal的塔普林(Nate Taplin)表示，到2017年，澳大利亞投產的液化天然氣(LNG)日均產能將超過70億立方英尺。

If Russia locks in a deal soon, it could spark the development of eastern Siberia as a hub to sell gas to Japan and South Korea. This would put competitive pressure on Asian LNG prices generally--something Middle Eastern and Australian suppliers would have to contend with.

如果俄羅斯迅速與中國達成交易，將有助於東西伯利亞地區成爲向日本和韓國出口天然氣的樞紐。這將給亞洲LNG價格帶來普遍的競爭壓力，對中東和澳大利亞供應商來說是個挑戰。

When two of the planet's biggest gas players get together, everyone will feel the effect.

當天然氣市場兩個最大的參與者走到一起的時候，其影響將遍及全世界。