中俄雙方已接近敲定天然氣供應協議

Investors in Gazprom seemed unconcerned with it missing another deadline to sign a massive deal for gas supplies to China by the end of 2013.

俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)再一次未能在截止日期（2013年年底）前與中國簽署大規模天然氣供應協議，但該公司的投資者們似乎並不擔心。

In fact, Russia’s state gas company has been discussing the planned deal with China’s CNPC for so many years that many started doubting it would ever happen.

事實上，由於Gazprom這麼多年來一直在與中國石油天然氣集團公司（CNPC，簡稱中石油）討論這個擬議中的協議，許多人已經懷疑這個協議可能永遠也無望達成。

But now an agreement is within reach. Negotiations have picked up steam in recent Months, paving the way to a deal which could not only help satisfy China’s energy demand for many years to come but also transform Gazprom.

但現在看來，協議也許很快就能達成。雙方在最近幾個月加快了談判，爲簽署協議鋪平了道路。該協議不僅會滿足中國今後許多年的能源需求，而且還會爲Gazprom的業績帶來改觀。

Both Chinese and Russian sources say the two sides are getting close to a pricing arrangement that would allow the gas to arrive in eastern Chinese markets at about $13 per million British thermal units.

中俄雙方的消息人士都表示，雙方即將簽署一份定價協議。該協議將讓俄羅斯天然氣以大約13美元/mBtu（per million British thermal units，百萬英熱單位）的價格進入中國華東市場。

That would translate into $10-$11 per mBtu at the Chinese border – a price that suits both Chinese and Russian calculations.

這將意味着俄羅斯天然氣在到達中國邊境時的價格是10-11美元/mBtu，這一價格符合中俄雙方的估計。

China has long insisted that it will not pay Gazprom much more than the $9 per mBtu it pays for gas from Turkmenistan, and that the piped gas must be cheaper than liquefied natural gas.

中國長期以來一直堅稱，它不會向Gazprom支付比土庫曼斯坦天然氣價格（9美元/mBtu）高出太多的價格，而且管道天然氣的價格必須比液化天然氣便宜。

“Price talks have become less difficult for Gazprom now that LNG prices are high,” says Julia Pribytkova, a gas analyst at Moody’s in Moscow.

穆迪(Moody's)駐莫斯科的天然氣分析師茱莉亞•普里貝特科娃(Julia Pribytkova)表示：“由於如今液化天然氣價格高企，Gazprom的價格談判變得不那麼困難了。”

For Gazprom, the key is that the huge investments necessary in a new pipeline system linking new gas fields in eastern Siberia to a planned liquefaction terminal in Vladivostok for shipments to several Asian customers, must pay off.

建設新的管道系統、將西伯利亞東部新天然氣田與海參崴擬建的液化天然氣終端連接起來，需要巨大的投資。對Gazprom而言，關鍵在於這些投資必須帶來回報。從海參崴可以將液化天然氣運往多個亞洲國家。

It therefore calculates its China price by deducting from the benchmark price for LNG in Asia – currently between $16-$17 per mBtu – the cost for transportation to a regasification terminal at the importing country, the liquefaction cost and the transport to the Chinese border. “With that calculation, you arrive exactly at $10-$11 per mBtu,” says Maxim Nechaev, head of consulting at IHS in Moscow.

因此，Gazprom在估算賣給中國的價格時，是用亞洲液化天然氣基準價格（當前在16-17美元/mBtu之間）減去運輸至進口國液化天然氣再氣化終端的成本、液化成本以及運輸至中國邊境的成本。IHS駐莫斯科的諮詢主管馬克西姆•涅查耶夫(Maxim Nechaev)表示：“按照這種估算方法，液化天然氣到達中國的價格恰好爲10-11美元/mBtu。

The formula for the deal is expected to be based on a reference to oil price products in Asia, possibly Singapore crude.

預計協議價格的計算將與亞洲石油價格產品（可能是新加坡原油）掛鉤。

The Chinese side is quick to point out it no longer needs the Gazprom gas as much as it did when negotiations began a decade ago. China has now constructed alternate gas pipeline links with central Asia and Myanmar. LNG terminals already import shipped gas and more are in the works, to take gas from Qatar, Australia and Russia itself.

中方很快指出，它已不再像十年前雙方剛開始談判時那樣需要Gazprom的天然氣了。中國如今建造了連接中亞和緬甸的替代性天然氣管道。中國的液化天然氣終端已經在進口來自卡塔爾、澳大利亞甚至俄羅斯自身的天然氣，同時更多的終端正在建設中。

“Russia is already 10 years too late in entering China’s gas market,” says China-Russia energy expert Feng Yujun of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. “Time is on China’s side,” he adds.

中國現代國際關係研究院(China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)的中俄能源專家馮玉軍表示：“俄羅斯進入中國天然氣市場已經遲了10年。”他補充稱：“現在時勢有利於中國。”

But China cannot be too dismissive of Gazprom either. The country faces a large future gas deficit, thanks to plans to cut coal-fuelled pollution in eastern cities.

但中國也不可能過於不在乎Gazprom。由於計劃減少燒煤在東部城市導致的污染，中國未來面臨着巨大的天然氣赤字。

The breakthrough came when Gazprom finally agreed in May to prioritise the so-called Eastern Route. From the very beginning of gas talks with China in the early 1990s, the Russian state company had planned to supply its eastern neighbour from existing gas fields in western Siberia.

去年5月談判取得了突破，當時Gazprom終於同意優先考慮所謂的“東線管道”。從上世紀90年代初與中國展開天然氣談判以來，Gazprom就一直計劃利用現有的西伯利亞西部天然氣田向中國供應天然氣。

But growing pressures both domestically and abroad convinced Gazprom to give up on this idea.

但隨着國內外的壓力日益增加，Gazprom放棄了這一想法。

The rapid take-off of shale gas production has altered the global demand picture. In Europe, traditionally Gazprom’s largest market, the company has run into problems with an anti-trust probe and, more recently, a challenge from the European Commission to the South Stream pipeline project.

頁岩氣產量迅速飆升改變了全球需求形勢。在傳統上的最大市場——歐洲，Gazprom陷入了麻煩，先是遭遇反壟斷調查，最近又在South Stream管道項目上遭到歐盟委員會(European Commission)的挑戰。

The Russian government, keen to increase the country’s global gas market share and to crank up development of thinly-populated eastern Siberia, has started breaking Gazprom’s monopoly.

俄羅斯政府熱切希望增加本國在全球天然氣市場上的份額，並促進人煙稀少的西伯利亞東部的發展，因此，它開始着手打破Gazprom的壟斷地位。

This month, legislation took effect that allows both Rosneft, the state oil group, and Novatek, Russia’s largest privately-owned gas company, to compete with Gazprom in gas exports.

俄羅斯出臺了法律，允許俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)和諾瓦泰克公司(Novatek)在天然氣出口領域與Gazprom競爭，該法律於本月生效。諾瓦泰克是俄羅斯最大的私營天然氣公司。

Other Russian-Chinese energy projects have moved ahead while the Gazprom pipeline stalled.

其他俄中能源項目已經取得進展，而Gazprom的管道項目仍停滯不前。

Notably, CNPC is an investor in other overseas gas projects – for instance, gas fields in Turkmenistan and in Novatek’s LNG joint-venture with France’s Total on the Yamal peninsula, which received the final go-ahead this month following the gas export liberalisation law. That means the company gets some benefit from gas sales even though the domestic Chinese gas price cap is lower than imported prices, sweetening the pill for CNPC.

尤其是，中石油投資了其他一些海外天然氣項目，例如，土庫曼斯坦的氣田、以及諾瓦泰克與法國道達爾(Total)在亞馬爾半島的液化天然氣合資企業。俄羅斯放開天然氣出口限制的法律於本月生效之後，諾瓦泰克和道達爾的合資企業最終獲批。這意味着，即便中國國內天然氣最高限價低於進口價格，中石油也會從天然氣銷售中獲得一些好處，這讓中石油更容易接受協議。

These big changes drove Gazprom to agree to supply China via a new pipeline system, called the Power of Siberia.

上述這些重大變化促使Gazprom同意通過新的名爲“Power of Siberia”的管道系統向中國供應天然氣。

Christopher Granville, managing director at Trusted Sources, says a failure to seal a deal would make Gazprom a west-facing company exposed to the risks from growing competition at home and a potential collapse in European demand.

Trusted Sources的董事總經理克里斯托弗•格蘭維爾(Christopher Granville)表示，未能敲定協議意味着Gazprom將成爲一家面向西方的公司，既面臨國內日益激烈的競爭，又面臨歐洲需求崩潰的風險。

“This is Gazprom’s chance to enter the fastest-growing gas market in the world,” he said. “It’s now or never.”

他說：“Gazprom能否進入這個全球增長最爲迅速的天然氣市場在此一舉。如果現在不進入，就永遠進不去了。”