中國政府啓動萬億地方債置換計劃

China is imposing a $160bn municipal-bonds-for-debt swap on banks in a bid to shift some of the financing costs of cash-strapped local governments back to lenders, local media reported on Wednesday.

據中國國內媒體週三報道，中國正在讓銀行用1600億美元的地方政府債券置換存量債務，以便將現金短缺的地方政府的部分融資成本轉嫁回銀行手中。

Ballooning debts at municipalities — estimated at $2.9bn by mid-2013 as local governments engaged in a frenzy of debt-fuelled infrastructure building — have emerged as one of the fault lines in China’s economy as growth slows and property prices dip.

隨着增長放緩及樓市價格下跌，地方政府不斷增大的債務已日益成爲中國經濟的斷層線（fault line，取自《斷層線》一書，借用地質學概念形容金融危機的源頭——譯者注）之一。截止2013年中，中國地方政府的債務估計爲29萬億美元。當時，各地方政府開展了一輪靠債務驅動的瘋狂的基礎建設。

Beijing is seeking to limit debt servicing costs for municipalities by obliging banks to switch out loans, which frequently carry interest rates over 7 per cent, in return for municipal bonds with a capped coupon.

中國政府正試圖通過強制銀行將貸款換成地方政府債券，限制地方政府的償債成本。貸款的利率通常在7%以上，而地方債券的折扣卻有上限。

The swap will crimp banks’ income, but the central bank will cushion the blow by accepting municipal bonds as collateral for key lending facilities through which it provides liquidity to commercial lenders.

這種置換過程會影響銀行的收入。不過，中國央行(PBoC)將通過接受地方債券作爲抵押品，緩衝由此帶來的衝擊。這類抵押品可用在關鍵的貸款機制當中，央行會通過這類貸款機制，向商業銀行提供流動性。

The debt swap will also avoid public bond auctions that had threatened to drain Rmb1tn ($160bn) in liquidity from the financial system and expose lacklustre demand for municipal paper.

這次債務置換也將避免公開拍賣債券。公開拍賣債券可能會耗去1萬億元人民幣（合1600億美元）的流動性，並暴露出地方債券需求疲軟的問題。

Instead, the swap will occur through bilateral negotiations between localities and individual creditors, the central bank, finance ministry, and bank regulator said in jointly issued guidelines obtained by Sina Finance.

相反，根據新浪財經(Sina Finance)所獲的中國央行、財政部和銀監會共同下發的指導意見，置換過程會通過地方財政部門與特定債權人間的雙邊協商展開。

The reduction in credit risk will mitigate the negative impact on banks’ bottom lines, analysts said.

分析師表示，信用風險的降低將緩解對銀行盈利的負面影響。

“Although banks’ earnings will be hurt by the lower yields of bonds (relative to higher interest on loans), we believe the market will value banks’ gain in risk reduction and liquidity over their loss in interest revenue,” wrote Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS.

瑞士銀行(UBS)首席中國問題經濟學家汪濤寫道：“在我們看來，雖然利息收益可能會有所降低，但銀行將受益於風險資產規模下降、資本充足率提高、流動性提高，以及資產質量改善。”

China’s finance ministry in March revealed a plan for provincial governments to refinance Rmb1tn in debt due to mature this year by issuing municipal bonds. The goal is to lower debt-servicing costs and extend maturities by converting short-term loans to long-term bonds.

今年3月，中國財政部披露了一項計劃，要求各省政府通過發行地方債券，爲今年到期的1萬億元人民幣債務再融資。該計劃的目標，是通過將短期貸款轉換成長期債券，降低償債成本並延長還款期。

But the plan hit a snag last month when two provincial governments were forced to postpone bond auctions in the face of weak demand from banks, who balked at the low yields.

然而上個月這一計劃卻遭遇了小小的挫折。當時，由於銀行對過低收益率不滿而導致的銀行需求疲軟，兩個省政府被迫推遲債券拍賣。

The latest rules say that the new local bonds must not carry yields of more than 30 per cent above prevailing yields on Chinese central government bonds with matching maturities. Chinese treasuries yield 3.2 to 3.5 per cent for maturities of one to 10 years.

最新規定表示，新地方債收益率上限不得高於發行日前1至5個工作日相同待償期記賬式國債收益率平均值上浮的30%。目前，中國1到10年期的國債收益率在3.2%到3.5%之間。

The yield cap will not apply to the Rmb600bn in new local bonds that will be auctioned this year outside the debt swap program.

對於此次地方債務置換計劃以外拍賣的6000億人民幣的新發行地方債券，這一收益率上限並不適用。

Beyond the issue of yields, market watchers were also concerned that Rmb1tn in new bonds, if sold in the open market, would suck liquidity out of China’s financial system, choking off the flow of funds to other borrowers.

除了收益率的問題，市場觀察人士還關注這樣一個問題：1萬億元人民幣的新債券，一旦在公開市場出售，會吸收中國金融體系中的流動性，從而阻礙資金流向其他借款方。

Under the latest guidelines local governments will negotiate directly with individual creditors to swap maturing loans for newly issued bonds. As such, no cash payments will change hands so liquidity will be unaffected.

根據最新的指導意見，地方政府將直接與特定債權人協商，將到期貸款置換成新發行債券。這樣，置換過程中不會涉及現金換手，從而讓流動性不受影響。

Private placements will be used to refinance bank loans as well as maturing debt from non-bank financial institutions like trust companies, securities brokerages and insurers, the guidance said.

該指導意見還表示，這種定向承銷方式除了可用於銀行貸款的再融資，還可用於信託、證券、保險等非銀行類金融機構的再融資。