中國地方政府通過融資工具搶購土地

Local governments in some of China’s smallest cities are snapping up their own land at auctions, in a destructive cycle designed to prop up property prices but which is ravaging their own finances.

中國一些小城市的地方政府正在搶購它們自己拍賣的土地，這種破壞性循環本意是要推高房價，結果卻正在破壞它們自己的財政。

Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in at least one wealthy province, Jiangsu, which borders Shanghai, accounted for more land purchases than property developers did in 2013 — the last year for which data were available — according to research collated by Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)研究發現，在2013年（可獲得數據的最近年份），至少一個富裕省份——與上海毗鄰的江蘇省——的地方政府融資工具(LGFV)所收購的土地超過了房地產開發商所購買的土地。

The data signal that cash-strapped local governments are switching money from one pocket to another rather than booking real sales.

該數據表明，資金緊張的地方政府正在將資金從一個口袋轉移到另一個口袋，而不是記錄真實的銷售收入。

“China faces a severe fiscal challenge in 2015,” said Zhang Zhiwei, Deutsche Bank’s chief Asia economist, yesterday, as local governments are forecast to record the first contraction in revenues since 1994 and total government revenues grow by the smallest percentage since 1981.

德意志銀行首席亞洲經濟學家張智威昨日表示，“中國在2015年將面臨嚴峻的財政挑戰，”地方政府據預計將出現自1994年以來的首次收入萎縮，政府總收入將創下自1981年以來最低的百分比增速。

Deutsche Bank reviewed data for only four provinces, but concerns about the health of property markets in third-tier cities across China are mounting.

德意志銀行僅評估了4個省份的數據，但人們對中國三線城市房地產市場健康狀況的擔憂卻在日益增長。

Local government budgets, especially in smaller cities, rely on land sales, which in turn are dependent on strong property demand and prices.

地方政府預算（尤其是在中小城市）依賴土地銷售收入，從而需要房地產需求和價格保持強勁。

A glut of new building combined with tougher credit markets has cooled interest in all but the largest cities, forcing local governments to step in and prop up their own land prices.

大量新建住房進入市場，再加上信貸市場收緊，導致幾乎所有大城市的房地產市場降溫，從而迫使地方政府出手推升本地地價。

Land sales accounted for about a quarter of local government revenues on average across China but there was a “huge range”, said Debra Roane of Moody’s rating agency. “The issue is that land as a source of revenue is highly volatile.”

穆迪(Moody’s)的黛博拉•羅恩(Debra Roane)表示，平均而言，土地銷售收入佔到中國地方政府收入的大約四分之一，但不同城市差異很大。“問題在於，把土地作爲收入來源極不穩定”。

LGFVs appeared about six years ago. Created to fund Beijing-mandated stimulus projects in the wake of the global financial crisis, they quickly exacerbated concerns over rising levels of local government debt. Use of the vehicles to prop up land prices would stoke those concerns.

地方政府融資工具大約出現在6年前。它們創立的目的是爲中國政府在全球金融危機後出臺的刺激項目融資，後來很快加劇了人們對地方政府債務水平增長的擔憂。使用這些工具推升地價將會進一步加劇這些擔憂。

“Land sales are among the most polluted statistics in China,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research. Land sales to LGFVs could be a means to repay debt, move collateral or maintain the value of land locally, she said.

美奇金投資諮詢公司(J Capital Research)的楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)表示：“土地銷售情況是中國扭曲最爲嚴重的統計數據之一。”她補充稱，將土地出售給地方政府融資工具可能是償債、移除擔保或者維持當地土地價值的一種手段。

The Chinese population’s continued preference for large metropolitan areas flies in the face of Beijing’s urbanisation policies, which try to force investment, construction and home purchases to smaller cities and county seats.

中國人對大都市的一貫喜好與中國政府的城鎮化政策相悖，政府試圖讓人們在中小城鎮投資、建設和購房。