民衆發現日本巧克力悄然漲價了

Times are hard for Japanese with a sweet tooth as the country beMoans the latest side effect of Abenomics: a surge in the price of chocolate.

對於喜愛甜食的日本人來說，現在的日子有點不好過，該國正抱怨安倍經濟學(Abenomics)的一個最新副作用：巧克力價格飆升。

Over the past two weeks, all three of Japan’s largest confectioners — Meiji, Morinagaand Lotte — have announced sharp increases in the price of any sweet that uses cocoa.

過去兩週，日本三大糖果製造商——明治(Meiji)、森永(Morinaga)和樂天(Lotte)均宣佈大幅上調所有以可可粉爲原料的產品的價格。

The price rises reflect the yen’s latest slide, taking it from Y120 to Y125 against the dollar since mid-May, a move with decidedly mixed consequences for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus.

此番漲價反映出日元匯率的最新下跌行情，自5月中旬以來，日元兌美元匯率已從120日元兌1美元跌至125日元兌1美元，對於日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)推出的經濟刺激計劃而言，這必然會產生好壞不一的結果。

A weaker currency should help exporters, while higher inflation is one of Mr Abe’s main goals. Economists worry, however, that rising prices for imported food will drain Japanese consumers of cash and confidence, hampering the recovery of domestic demand.

匯率下跌應會幫助出口商，而通脹上升是安倍晉三的主要目標之一。然而，經濟學家擔心，進口食品價格上漲將損耗日本消費者的現金和信心，從而阻礙內需的回暖。

Deploying very similar language in their press releases, each confectioner said it had done its best to absorb the cost of imported raw materials, but was now having to pass the costs on to customers.

這三家糖果製造商在新聞發佈會上使用了非常類似的措辭，它們都表示，已盡全力消化進口原材料的成本，但現在不得不將成本轉嫁給消費者。

At Lotte, the prices of its eight best-selling chocolates are up 10 per cent; the largest increase at Meiji is 11.9 per cent on its Banana Chocco product.

樂天的8種最暢銷的巧克力價格上漲10%；明治價格漲幅最大的是其香蕉巧克力(Banana Chocco)產品，上漲11.9%。

Nor is it just chocolates. The price of everything from curry to cup noodles is on the up, with food inflation running about 2 per cent, compared with the flat level of core goods prices.

漲價的不僅僅是巧克力產品。從咖喱到杯麪的所有產品都在漲價，日本的食品通脹率爲2%左右，而核心商品價格卻未見上漲。

“We are certainly hearing more companies increasing prices in line with increasing import costs relating to the yen,” said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)首席日本外匯策略師山田秀佑(Shusuke Yamada)表示：“我們確實聽到有更多企業在漲價，以應對以日元計價的進口價格上漲。”

“But the ability of the companies to raise prices is also because the deflationary mindset of Japan is disappearing, so companies are more confident passing the rising costs of raw materials on to customers.”

“但企業之所以能夠漲價還因爲日本的通縮觀念在消失，因此企業有更多的信心將不斷上漲的原材料成本轉嫁給消費者。”

Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, said companies tend to use the yen as a convenient excuse for price rises aimed at boosting their margins.

瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)駐東京首席經濟學家白川弘道(Hiromichi Shirakawa)表示，企業往往會利用日元作爲漲價的便利藉口，而它們漲價是爲了提高利潤率。

“The Bank of Japan may want to argue the phenomenon shows a rising expected inflation rate,” he said. “In reality, it seems to us, this is not about expected inflation as much as companies wanting to get some money back.”

“日本央行(Bank of Japan)可能希望辯稱，這種現象顯示出通脹預期日益上升，”他表示，“實際上，在我們看來，這與其說關乎通脹預期，不如說是因爲企業想收回一些現金。”

The bump in food prices will help keep headline inflation above zero through the summer — with propaganda benefits, at least, for Japan’s central bank. The economic effect will depend on whether the boost to exports outweighs the hit to consumption.

食品價格上漲將有利於在今年整個夏季將整體通脹率保持在零以上，至少對於日本央行而言，這具有宣傳效應。其經濟效應將取決於對出口的提振是否超過對消費的衝擊。

Mr Shirakawa thinks the benefits will be modest, because sluggish global demand means low export prices are offsetting the boost from a weaker currency. Meanwhile, it will be harder to raise consumption, with wage increases for Japanese workers absorbed by higher prices at the supermarket.

白川弘道認爲，匯率下跌對經濟的好處將較微弱，因爲全球需求乏力意味着低出口價格正抵消日元走軟所帶來的提振作用。與此同時，日本勞動者的薪資上漲被超市漲價吸收，提高消費的難度將加大。

“I think the average Japanese will feel they are getting somewhat poorer,” he says.

他表示：“我認爲，日本普通人會感到自己變窮了。”

Analysts at Nomura argue that Japanese households are well able to tolerate a weaker yen but that the speed of yen depreciation makes a big difference.

野村(Nomura)分析師稱，日本家庭具備很強的能力忍受日元貶值，但日元貶值的速度會有很大影響。

“While it takes some time for the yen depreciation’s positive impact on exports to be felt by the domestic economy, the prices of imported energy and domestic consumer prices rise much more quickly, effectively reducing real income levels of Japanese households,” noted economist Tomo Kinoshita in a report.

經濟學家木下智夫(Tomo Kinoshita)在一份報告中指出：“國內經濟需要一段時間才能感受到日元貶值對出口的積極影響，但進口能源和國內消費者物價上漲的速度要快得多，這事實上降低了日本家庭的實際收入水平。”

With Japan’s economy trundling forward, the path of the yen is likely to depend greatly on how fast the US moves towards a rise in interest rates, and whether China manages a soft landing for its economy.

隨着日本經濟緩慢向前，日元匯率的走勢可能會在很大程度上取決於，美國邁向加息的步伐有多快，以及中國是否能實現國內經濟軟着陸。

“The yen is getting to the point where the dollar rally has been driven by technical factors and could stall at any time,” said Mr Yamada.

山田秀佑表示：“日元兌美元匯率即將到達這樣一個點，即一直受到技術因素推動的美元升值可能會隨時停止。”