金價漲不漲? 中國黃金數據缺口引發猜測
A 500-tonne gap in China’s gold consumption data is fuelling talk that the central bank took advantage of weak prices last year to bulk up its holdings of the precious metal.
中國黃金消費數據中存在一個500噸的缺口，這一信息支持了有關中國央行去年利用金價走弱之機增持黃金的說法。The last time the Chinese central bank said it increased its gold holdings was nearly five years ago, in early 2009. Officials have since then repeatedly insisted that they do not view gold as a useful asset for diversifying the country’s $3.8tn Mountain of foreign currency reserves.
中國央行上次公示增加黃金儲備，還是在將近5年前的2009年初。自那以後，中國官員一直堅稱，他們不認爲黃金資產能對中國3.8萬億美元的海量外匯儲備起到使其多元化的作用。But the latest official figures show that China imported and produced far more gold in 2013 than its citizens bought. This chasm suggests that the central bank was a buyer in the gold market last year in spite of its protestations to the contrary, say analysts.
但最新官方數據顯示，2013年中國進口和生產的黃金遠遠超過中國公民的購買量。分析師表示，這一巨大缺口意味着，去年中國央行在黃金市場上扮演了買方角色——儘管其聲明的內容與此相反。
The China Gold Association published data on Monday showing that Chinese demand for gold surged 41 per cent to 1,176 tonnes last year, making it all but certain that China overtook India as the world’s biggest consumer of bullion.
週一，中國黃金協會(China Gold Association)發佈的數據顯示，去年中國的黃金需求量猛增41%，至1176噸。中國因此幾乎肯定已超越印度，成爲世界最大的黃金消費國。Yet Chinese import and production volumes were even stronger. China imported 1,158 tonnes of gold via Hong Kong, more than double its 2012 total. Domestically, production of bullion rose 6 per cent to 428 tonnes. On top of that, China also imported gold directly through Shanghai, though these numbers have not been published.
然而，中國的黃金進口量和產量增勢更爲強勁。中國經由香港進口了1158噸黃金，是2012年進口總量的兩倍多。中國國內的黃金產量增長了6%，至428噸。除此以外，中國還經由上海直接進口了黃金，儘管相關數據並未公佈。Adding up the reported and estimated figures, Na Liu of CNC Asset Management calculated that China’s “apparent gold consumption” exceeded 1,700 tonnes in 2013, more than 500 tonnes higher than reported.
CNC資產管理公司(CNC Asset Management)的劉納把公佈的和估計的數字加總到一起，得出的計算結果是，2013年中國“貌似可能的黃金消費量”超過1700噸，比公佈的數字高出逾500噸。“We would not be surprised to hear the People’s Bank of China announce a new, significantly higher figure, if it chooses to do so,” Mr Na said. The PBOC has said that its gold reserves have been steady at 1,054 tonnes since April 2009.
劉納表示：“如果中國央行選擇公佈新的黃金儲備數據，而這一數據大幅升高，我們不會感到意外。”中國央行表示，2009年4月以來其黃金儲備一直穩定在1054噸。But central bank buying is only one of the explanations for the chasm between China’s apparent and actual gold consumption.
不過，就中國看上去的黃金消費量與官方公佈的消費量間的巨大缺口而言，中國央行的買入行爲只是其中的一種解釋。Liu Xu, an analyst with Capital Futures in Beijing, said that companies in the jewellery market may have also built up their gold stocks and that commercial financial institutions such as banks have also been adding to their holdings. Neither would show up in the gold demand data, which measures final consumption.
北京首創期貨(Capital Futures)分析師劉旭表示，珠寶市場的企業可能也增加了黃金庫存，而銀行之類的商業金融機構也一直在增持黃金。以上兩者都不會出現在黃金需求數據中，因爲這一數據考察的是黃金的最終消費。“It’s not only about increases in official holdings. It’s more accurate to say that every level of society, from individuals up to banks, has been allocating more to gold,” Mr Liu said. “Wealth is expanding and people have limited investment channels, so gold is attractive.”
劉旭表示：“這個問題不僅僅與官方增持有關。更準確的說，從個人到銀行的社會各個層面都在增持黃金。人們的財富在增長，投資渠道卻十分有限，因此黃金是很有吸引力的。”Moreover, the Chinese jewellery industry has also grown quickly and exports of finished products would not necessarily be captured by the gold data.
此外，中國珠寶業的發展也十分迅速，黃金成品的出口未必在黃金數據中得到體現。Speculation has been mounting in recent months that the Chinese central bank might announce updated figures for its gold holdings, but Mr Liu said the recent rebound in prices could lead it to remain quiet, for fear of sparking a jump in the market.
最近幾個月，投機活動不斷加劇，爲此中國央行可能會公佈最新的黃金儲備數據。但劉旭表示，金價近期的反彈可能會令中國央行保持沉默，以免引發金價暴漲。Even if the Chinese central bank’s gold holdings were twice as large as officially reported, they would still account for roughly 2 per cent of the country’s official reserves, well below the norm in more developed economies.
即使中國央行的黃金儲備量是官方先前公佈的數字的兩倍，其在中國官方儲備中也仍然只佔2%左右，而這一比例遠低於較發達經濟體的常見水平。
