蘇格蘭不應與英國匆匆"離婚"

This is the worst possible time for Britain to consider leaving the EU – or for Scotland to break with Britain.

眼下可能是英國最不該考慮退出歐盟(EU)的時候，也是蘇格蘭最不該脫離英國的時候。

The EU is an unfinished project of European states that have sacrificed part of their sovereignty to form an ever-closer union based on shared values and ideals. Those shared values are under attack on multiple fronts. Russia’s undeclared war against UKraine is perhaps the most immediate example but it is by no means the only one. Resurgent nationalism and illiberal democracy are on the rise within Europe, at its borders and around the globe.

歐盟是歐洲國家一個尚未完成的項目。這些國家犧牲了部分主權，以求構建一個建立在共同價值觀和理想基礎上的、日益密切的聯盟。這些共同的價值觀正在多方面遭遇攻擊。俄羅斯對烏克蘭的不宣而戰也許是最直接的例子，但它絕不是唯一的例子。在歐洲的內部、邊緣乃至世界各地，民族主義和不自由的民主(Illiberal Democracy)正在重新擡頭。

Since world war two the European powers, along with the US, have been the main supporters of the prevailing international order. Yet, in recent years, overwhelmed by the euro crisis, Europe has turned inward, diminishing its ability to play a forceful role in international affairs.

二戰以來，歐洲強國和美國一直是現行國際秩序的主要支柱。然而，近些年來，在歐元區危機的重壓下，歐洲開始把注意力轉向自身，逐步弱化了其在國際事務中發揮有力影響的能力。

To make matters worse, the US has done the same, if for different reasons. Their preoccupation with domestic matters has created a vacuum that ambitious regional powers have sought to fill.

更糟糕的是，美國也出現了同樣的轉變，儘管它是出於別的原因。被內部事務纏身的它們留下了一個真空，而野心勃勃的地區性強國企圖填補這個真空。

The resulting breakdown of international governance has given rise to a plethora of unresolved crises around the globe. The breakdown is most acute in the Middle East. The sudden emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or Isis, provides the most gruesome example of how far it can go and how much human suffering it can cause.

國際治理由此出現的垮塌，在全球催生了大量有待解決的危機。這種垮塌在中東表現得最爲尖銳。伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國(ISIS)的突然崛起，就提供了一個最觸目驚心的例子，來證明這種垮塌能發展到何種地步、以及會有多少人因此而蒙難。

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, military conflict has spread to Europe. Two radically different forms of government are competing for ascendancy. The EU stands for principles of liberal democracy, international governance and the rule of law. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin maintains the outward appearance of democracy by exploiting a narrative of ethnic and religious nationalism to generate popular support for his corrupt, authoritarian regime.

隨着俄羅斯入侵了烏克蘭，軍事衝突已蔓延到歐洲。兩種根本上不同的政體正在爲取得支配地位而相互競爭。歐盟擁護自由民主、國際治理及法治原則。在俄羅斯，弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)總統則在利用族羣和宗教民族主義敘事，來博得民衆對其腐敗威權政權的支持，維持一種表面上的民主。

As a major power and global financial centre, Britain ought to be centrally involved in crafting a European response to this threat. But like the US and the EU itself, Britain has also been distracted by internal matters. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron has been persuaded by anti-European zeal – not least within his own party – to put UK membership in the EU to a vote in 2017.

面對這一威脅，歐盟需要拿出對策，作爲一個主要強國及全球金融中心，英國應在制定這一對策方面發揮核心作用。但正如美國及歐盟自身一樣，英國的精力也被其內部事務分散了。英國首相、保守黨人戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)在國內強烈的反歐盟情緒——尤其是他所在政黨內的反歐盟情緒——的影響下，已承諾將英國是否留在歐盟內的問題交由2017年的公投解決。

A poll on Scottish independence is only days away. Just when Britain should be confronting grave threats to its way of life, it is preoccupied with divorce of one type or another. Divorce is always messy. A vote for Scottish independence would weaken – in political and economic terms – both a truncated UK and Scotland. An independent Scotland would be financially unstable, especially if threats to renege on debt repayments were carried through.

如今，距蘇格蘭獨立公投只剩幾天時間了。就在英國本應該應對其生活方式受到的重大威脅時，它頭腦中想的卻全是這樣或那樣的“離婚”。離婚永遠都是混亂不堪的。如果公投得出支持蘇格蘭獨立的結果，會從政治和經濟兩方面削弱殘缺不全的聯合王國以及蘇格蘭自己。新獨立的蘇格蘭在金融方面將是不穩定的，尤其是在關於債務違約的威脅兌現的情況下。

For Scotland and the rest of the UK to enter into a currency union without a political union, after the euro crisis has demonstrated all the pitfalls, would be a retrograde step that neither side should contemplate.

對蘇格蘭和聯合王國的剩餘部分來說，在沒有政治聯盟的情況下建立貨幣聯盟將是一種倒退，歐元區危機已向人們展示了這樣做的各種弊端，雙方都不應考慮這樣的選擇。

Yet without it, an independent Scotland could not benefit from the low interest rates that a strong pound has brought. These considerations ought to outweigh whatever possible benefits independence might bring.

然而，如果不建立貨幣聯盟，獨立後的蘇格蘭就無法從強勢英鎊帶來的低利率中受益。這些因素應該會壓倒獨立帶來的任何潛在好處。

Yes, there are significant policy differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK. There is a more left-leaning approach to many issues, notably education, north of the border. But Scotland would be better placed to attain its political goals as part of a united Britain that is part of the EU.

沒錯，蘇格蘭與英國其他地區的政策有很大不同。在很多問題上——尤其是教育——蘇格蘭的政策更爲左傾。不過，如果蘇格蘭是統一的英國的一部分，而英國又是歐盟的一部分，那麼蘇格蘭將能夠更好地實現其政治目標。

The same applies to a British exit from Europe. Policy differences can be mediated. A divorce would weaken the UK. Those who call for separation seem to have forgotten that Britain currently enjoys the best of all possible worlds. Being part of the EU but not part of the euro allows the UK to enjoy the trading benefits without the currency constraints.

同樣的道理也適用於“英國退歐”問題。政策差異是可以調和的。“退歐”會削弱英國。那些呼籲“退歐”的人似乎忘了，英國眼下享有的局面正是所有可能局面中最有利的一種。英國是歐盟成員國、卻不是歐元區國家，這讓英國能夠享有貿易上的好處、卻不必受到貨幣方面的限制。

Furthermore, Britain has always played a balancing role between hostile blocs. Its absence would greatly diminish the weight of the EU in the world.

此外，英國一直在敵對陣營間扮演平衡角色。英國的缺席將極大地削弱歐盟在全球的影響力。

The EU has proved to be the best guarantor of peace and human security since the end of the second world war. The importance of preserving the shared values underpinning a whole way of life far outweighs any possible advantages of independence. The difficult times we are facing call for increased unity, not divorce.

事實已經證明，歐盟是二戰結束以來和平與人類安全的最佳保障。比起獨立帶來的任何潛在好處，維護支撐着一整套生活方式的共同價值觀要重要得多。我們正面臨一個艱難的時期，這要求我們加強團結，而不是鬧離婚。

Only if Britain fails to resolve its differences with the EU, and if the pro-European Scots (having voted to remain within the UK) thus find themselves unwillingly excluded from Europe in 2017, would there be just cause for Scots to call for a new referendum. If it comes to that, Scotland will be in a different position – one that could legitimise a split.

如果蘇格蘭人公投支持蘇格蘭留在英國內，而英國卻沒能解決其與歐盟的分歧，那麼到了2017年時，這些親歐盟的蘇格蘭人會不情願地發現，自己被排除在歐盟之外。只有在那種情形下，蘇格蘭人要求舉行新的公投纔是正當的。若真到了那一步，蘇格蘭的處境將截然不同，屆時蘇格蘭脫離英國將是合情合理的。

But to vote for independence from the UK now would be to prematurely surrender Scottish leverage in London, and Britain’s leverage in the world.

現在就舉行獨立公投，會過早地讓蘇格蘭在倫敦喪失影響力、讓英國在世界喪失影響力。