年秋季CATTI口筆譯真題及答案（網友回憶版）
2011年秋季CATTI全國翻譯資格考試於昨天結束，很多同學急於知道考試文章的來源出處，小編收集整理網友回憶的考試真題來源如下，供大家參考。
三級口譯《口譯實務》
漢譯英真題：駐巴基斯坦大使劉健在第十屆“漢語橋”世界大學生中文比賽巴基斯坦賽區決賽上的講話
女士們，先生們！
早上好！
我非常高興出席今天在這裏舉行的第十屆“漢語橋”世界大學生中文比賽巴基斯坦賽區決賽。我想對巴國立現代語言大學和伊斯蘭堡孔子學院爲此次比賽做出的各項細心周到的安排表示感謝。我還想向參賽選手們表示祝賀。你們非凡的語言天賦、流利的漢語水平和對中國文化的理解令我印象深刻。我相信，你們一定能在決賽 中脫穎而出，創造佳績。誕生於2002年的“漢語橋”世界大學生中文比賽至今已經吸引了來自全世界70多個國家的上萬名學生參賽，極大推動了中文普及並掀起了一股學習漢語的熱潮。我們應當爲它喝彩。
在今天這個場合，我想就語言談一些個人看法。
語言是技能。掌握一門語言無疑是多了一項交流溝通的技能，對個人事業發展有好處。由於中巴特殊的“全天候”戰略伙伴關係，巴基斯坦學生學習漢語擁有更爲 有利的條件。中國總理溫家寶去年底的成功訪問極大豐富了兩國人文交流的內涵。在《聯合聲明》中，雙方同意全面拓展人文交流，重點加強中文和烏爾都語教育。 中方今年將邀請100名巴基斯坦高中生赴華參加“漢語橋”夏令營，並繼續向伊斯蘭堡孔子學院提供獎學金。中方還將自今年起，在三年之內向巴方提供500名 政府獎學金名額。可以說，你們學習漢語正逢其時。
語言是橋樑。第13任中國駐巴大使張春賢能夠說一口流利的烏爾都語。我知道我的很多同事對學習烏爾都語懷有濃厚的興趣。我還知道，很多巴基斯坦朋友會說 漢語，其中就有巴國立現代語言大學和伊斯蘭堡孔子學院的校友。我們爲他們驕傲。今天，我還想特別提及伊斯蘭堡孔子學院的學生。去年溫總理來巴，我們在巴中 友誼中心舉辦了這樣一場活動，就是兩國總理與爲中巴友誼做出突出貢獻人士座談。座談會臨近結束的時候，伊斯蘭堡孔子學院學員朱雷和14歲女孩拉比亞分別用 中文和英文深情並茂地朗誦了一首題爲“巴中友誼”的詩。在場觀衆深受感染，有人不禁落淚。這就是語言直通心靈的力量。
語言是窗戶。它不僅僅是一套符號系統，更是傳達文化內涵的重要載體。有人曾說，“語言是思想的服裝”，“文字是思想的符號”。學習漢語，就像爲中華文化 開了一扇窗。透過它，你可以看到中國人的生活方式、行爲準則、價值觀念、國家心理和民族性格，可以探尋過去幾十年來中國經濟社會取得巨大成就的背後動因。
語言是樂趣。寓教於樂也許正是“漢語橋”取得成功的重要原因。作爲一名外交官，我不僅在你們的國家工作，還在你們的國家生活。生活需要有樂趣。兩週前， 我從當地英文報紙上得知，著名烏爾都語作家、詩人阿卜杜爾•哈米德先生因病辭世。巴國立語言研究機構主席稱，“哈米德先生的去世意味着巴浪漫詩歌黃金時代 的終結”。包括我在內的很多中國人都是詩歌愛好者。然而，由於我不懂烏爾都語，雖身在巴基斯坦，卻難以欣賞文學巨匠的作品，“寶山空回”實爲憾事。我常常 在想，如果我懂烏爾都語，在這兒的常駐生活會更加有趣和充實。
最後，我真誠的希望越來越多的巴基斯坦朋友發現學習中文不僅有趣而且有益。中國使館將一如既往的提供力所能及的支持。
謝謝大家！
英譯漢真題（節選）：Calls for Recognizing Least Developed Countries as ‘Vast Reservoirs’ of Untapped Potential
There are few better places to hold the first major development conference of the decade. Here in Istanbul, cultures converge and continents connect. You provide a bridge between North and South, East and West. We are here to continue building a bridge, a bridge we started to build four decades ago.
In 1971, the international community identified 25 Least Developed Countries: the poorest and weakest members of our global family, those in need of special attention and assistance. Today there are 48 LDCs, home to nearly 900 million people, 12 per cent of the global population, half of whom live on less than $2 a day.
They suffer disproportionately from largely preventable diseases. They are most vulnerable to natural disasters, environmental change and economic shocks. They are the least secure. Eight of the United Nations 15 peacekeeping operations are in least developed countries. In the past decade those nations have produced some 60 per cent of the world’s refugees.
The facts are plain. We live in an unbalanced world, an unfair world. With 12 per cent of the global population, LDCs account for just 1 per cent of world exports, and less than 2 per cent of global direct investment. Recent years have seen a transformation of the global economic landscape.
Since the 2001 Brussels Programme of Action was adopted, many LDCs have benefited from this changing environment. But others have seen little progress or have even slid back. We risk a splintered world economy, a widening gap between haves and have-nots, between those who have hope and those who do not.
This cannot continue.
I have painted rather a bleak picture. But there is another one, a landscape of opportunity. It is this outlook that I want to present to you today. It is time to change our mindset. Instead of seeing LDCs as poor and weak, let us recognize these 48 countries as vast reservoirs of untapped potential. Investing in LDCs is an opportunity for all.
First it is an opportunity to relieve the world’s most vulnerable people of the burdens of poverty, hunger and needless disease. This is a moral obligation. Second, investing in LDCs can provide the stimulus that will help to propel and sustain global economic recovery and stability. This is not charity, it is smart investment. Third, it provides a massive opportunity for South-South cooperation and investment. The world’s rapidly emerging economies need both resources and markets. LDCs can provide both — and are increasingly doing so. Fourth, the LDCs represent a vast and barely touched area for enterprise, for business.
We have here, this week, all the ingredients for success, for a genuine partnership for development. You have worked hard in your preparations. You have reviewed the impact of the Brussels Programme of Action. You know what worked, and what did not, what should have been done and what still needs to be done.
Your negotiations for a new programme of action are on track. The issues are complex. Some are contentious. All are interlinked. I urge you to be ambitious and forward-looking. Deliver an Istanbul Programme of Action that will help the maximum number of LDCs to graduate from this category in the shortest time.
I would like to close, ladies and gentlemen, by highlighting some broad areas where we can reap the maximum benefits for LDCs and the global economy.
First, productive capacity. Most LDCs are rich in resources. All have young and vibrant populations. These men and women need decent jobs, education, training, so they can make the most of their country’s assets — minerals and other commodities, farmland, rich stores of biodiversity and tourism potential.
However, enhanced productive capacity will only be achieved with a dynamic and thriving private sector. One of the most significant aspects of this Conference is the enthusiastic engagement of the business community. Let us ensure that business has the right environment to thrive. It is no coincidence that the three countries that have graduated from the LDCs also score high on governance and democratic principles.
Let me now turn to the issue of aid. Official development assistance (ODA) to LDCs has nearly tripled in the past decade. But it remains below agreed targets. Yes, it is true that we live in times of austerity. But as I have said, assistance to LDCs is not charity, it is sound investment. Many also argue that current aid places too little emphasis on economic infrastructure and productive sectors. Furthermore, many LDCs are still saddled with unsustainable debt burdens. I urge lenders to revisit this issue.
Let me now turn to agriculture, which employs as much as 70 per cent of workers in LDCs. This is perhaps the most important sector for development. We need to invest more in smallholder farmers and the infrastructure they need. This means transferring appropriate technologies, supporting climate change adaptation and protecting ecosystems. We need to invest, too, in basic social protection and safety nets.
Global food prices are at new record levels. LDCs face a real prospect of a new crisis in food and nutrition security. In many LDCs, the poor spend more than half their incomes on food. More than 40 per cent of children in LDCs have had their growth and development stunted by malnutrition. A country that cannot feed its children cannot thrive.
My final point concerns trade. The international community has failed to follow through on global commitments in the Monterrey Consensus and the Doha Declaration on Financing for Development. I call again for a successful conclusion to the Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations. There is little point in helping LDCs to grow food and other commodities, manufacture products and develop services if they cannot trade fairly in the global marketplace.
The United Nations system will continue to prioritize LDC issues throughout its programmes. We will work diligently with all partners to help implement the new Istanbul Programme of Action.
A measure of any society is how well it looks after its least fortunate. The same is true of the international community. Now is not the time to turn our backs, but to increase our support.
The past two decades saw spectacular progress among emerging economies. The LDCs are poised to be the next wave of development achievement. Let me emphasize again, ladies and gentlemen: I am not arguing for charity, but investment. The returns can be profound — not just for the people living in LDCs, but for all people — for the global economy. Success for the LDCs is ultimately success for all.
Let us try our best to make this world harmonious, balanced and better for all.
三級筆譯 《筆譯實務》
英譯漢真題：Managing Globalization: The trouble with water
來源地址：《紐約時報》（2006年）
This month, the United Nations Development Program made water and sanitation the centerpiece of its flagship publication, the Human Development Report.
Claims of a "water apartheid," where poor people pay more for water than the rich, are bound to attract attention. But what are the economics behind the problem, and how can it be fixed?
In countries that have trouble delivering clean water to their people, a lack of infrastructure is often the culprit. People in areas that are not served by public utilities have to rely on costlier ways of getting water, such as itinerant water trucks and treks to wells.
Paradoxically, as the water sources get costlier, the water itself tends to be more dangerous. Water piped by utilities - to the rich and the poor alike - is usually cleaner than water trucked in or collected from an outdoor tank.
The problem exists not only in rural areas but even in big cities like Manila and Jakarta, said Hakan Bjorkman, program director of the UN agency in Thailand. Further, subsidies made to local water systems often end up benefiting people other than the poor, he added.
The agency proposes a three-step solution. First, make access to 20 liters, or 5 gallons, of clean water a day a human right. Next, make local governments accountable for delivering this service. Last, invest in infrastructure to link people to water mains.
The report says governments, especially in developing countries, should spend at least 1 percent of gross domestic product on water and sanitation. It also recommends that foreign aid be more directed toward these problems.
Clearly, this approach relies heavily on government intervention, something Bjorkman readily acknowledged. But there are some market-based approaches as well.
By offering cut-rate connections to poor people to the water mainline, the private water utility in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, has steadily increased access to clean water, according to the agency's report. A subsidy may not even be necessary, despite the agency's proposals, if a country can harness the economic benefits of providing clean water.
People who receive clean water are much less likely to die from water-borne diseases - a common malady in the developing world - and much more likely to enjoy long, productive, taxpaying lives that can benefit their host countries.
So if a government is trying to raise financing to invest in new infrastructure, it might find receptive ears in private credit markets - as long as it can harness the return. Similarly, private companies may calculate that it is worth bringing clean water to an area if its residents are willing to pay back the investment over many years.
By further opening up water infrastructure to investors, globalization might actually help people to get the clean water they need. But globalization could also make the problem harder to solve by creating a world market for water.
"As competition for water intensifies within countries, the resulting pressures will spill across national borders," the report predicts.
Some water supply basins are shared between as many as 19 countries, and 800 million people get their water from sources that originate outside their countries' borders. Without cooperation or regulation, that competition for water is likely to be won by wealthier bidders.
In the meantime, some local solutions are being found. In Thailand, Bjorkman said, some small communities are taking challenges like water access upon themselves.
"People organize themselves in groups to leverage what little resources they have to help their communities," he said. "That's especially true out in the rural areas. They invest their money in revolving funds and saving schemes, and they invest themselves to improve their villages."
It is not always easy to take these solutions and replicate them in other countries, though. Assembling a broad menu of different approaches can be the first step in finding the right solution for a given region or country.
漢譯英真題：（來源未知）
即使遇到豐收年景，對中國來說，要用世界百分之七的耕地養活全球五分之一的人口仍是一項艱鉅的任務。
中國政府面臨許多挑戰，最嚴峻的挑戰之一就是耕地流失。過去幾年中，平均每年有66.7萬公頃耕地被城市擴建、工業發展以及公路建設工程佔用，另有1萬平方公里的耕地被沙漠吞噬。
中國北方地區地下水位下降，農民不得不改種耐旱、地產作物，甚至撂荒。同時，農業基礎設施損耗嚴重，三分之二的灌溉設施需要整修。
由於農民爲增加收入而改種經濟作物，農業生產方式正在轉變。過去十幾年，全國水果和蔬菜種植面積平均每年增加130萬公頃。因此，水稻、玉米及小麥產量急劇下降。中國已由糧食淨出口國變爲糧食淨進口國。
中國政府把農業改革視爲頭等大事，投入大量資金用於提高小麥和稻米的收購價以及改進農田灌溉基礎設施。近年來，農產品的價格穩步上升，中國政府採取此項措施以提高農民種糧的積極性。
二級筆譯《筆譯實務》
英譯漢原題：
第一篇：Study Finds Hope in Saving Saltwater Fish
來源地址：《紐約時報》（2009年）
Can we have our fish and eat it too? An unusual collaboration of marine ecologists and fisheries management scientists says the answer may be yes.
In a research paper in Friday’s issue of the journal Science, the two groups, long at odds with each other, offer a global assessment of the world’s saltwater fish and their environments.
Their conclusions are at once gloomy — overfishing continues to threaten many species — and upbeat: a combination of steps can turn things around. But because antagonism between ecologists and fisheries management experts has been intense, many familiar with the study say the most important factor is that it was done at all.
They say they hope the study will inspire similar collaborations between scientists whose focus is safely exploiting specific natural resources and those interested mainly in conserving them.
“We need to merge those two communities,” said Steve Murawski, chief fisheries scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “This paper starts to bridge that gap.”
The collaboration began in 2006 when Boris Worm, a marine ecologist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and other scientists made an alarming prediction: if current trends continue, by 2048 overfishing will have destroyed most commercially important populations of saltwater fish. Ecologists applauded the work. But among fisheries management scientists, reactions ranged from skepticism to fury over what many called an alarmist report.
Among the most prominent critics was Ray Hilborn, a professor of aquatic and fishery sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. Yet the disagreement did not play out in typical scientific fashion with, as Dr. Hilborn put it, “researchers firing critical papers back and forth.” Instead, he and Dr. Worm found themselves debating the issue on National Public Radio.
“We started talking and found more common ground than we had expected,” Dr. Worm said. Dr. Hilborn recalled thinking that Dr. Worm “actually seemed like a reasonable person.”
The two decided to work together on the issue. They sought and received financing and began organizing workshops at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, an organization sponsored by the National Science Foundation and based at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
At first, Dr. Hilborn said in an interview, “the fisheries management people would go to lunch and the marine ecologists would go to lunch” — separately. But soon they were collecting and sharing data and recruiting more colleagues to analyze it.
第二篇：On fire
As I mentioned last week, I’ve recently returned from Australia. While I was there,I visited a eucalyptus forest that, in February, was the scene of an appalling wildfire. Perhaps naively, I had expected to find that many trees had been killed. They hadn’t. They had blackened bark, but were otherwise looking rather well, many of them wreathed in new young leaves. This prompted me to consider fire and the role it plays as a force of nature.
Fossil charcoals tell us that wildfires have been part of life on Earth for as long as there have been plants on land. That’s more than 400 million years of fire. Fire was here long before arriviste plants like grasses; it pre-dated the first flowers. And without wanting to get mystical about it, fire is, in many respects, a kind of animal, albeit an ethereal one. Like any animal, it consumes oxygen. Like a sheep or a slug, it eats plants.
Sometimes, it merely nibbles a few leaves; sometimes it kills grown trees. Sometimes it is more deadly and destructive than a swarm of locusts.
The shape-shifting nature of fire makes it hard to study, for it is not a single entity. Some fires are infernally hot; others, relatively cool. Some stay at ground level; others climb trees. Moreover, fire is much more likely to appear in some parts of the world than in others. Satellite images of the Earth show that wildfires are rare in, say, northern Europe, and common in parts of central Africa and Australia. Once a fire gets started, many factors contribute to how it will behave. The weather obviously has a huge effect: winds can fan flames, rains can quench them. The lie of the land matters, too: fire runs uphill more readily than it goes down. But another crucial factor is what type of plants the fire has to eat.
It’s common knowledge that plants regularly exposed to fire tend to have features that help them cope with it — such as thick bark, or seeds that only grow after being exposed to intense heat or smoke.
漢譯英真題：王慶：過度儲蓄的優點
王慶(摩根士丹利大中華區首席經濟學家)
最新情況：2007年下半年以來，中國經濟的發展確實非同尋常。隨着全球金融危機的爆發，中國經濟從2008年一季度“過熱”的結束到四季度“硬着陸” 的開始，經歷了一個爲期6個月的短週期。中國通過前所未有的強力政策，終於成爲第一個從“大衰退”中復甦的主要經濟體。面對當前的強勁復甦，越來越多的人 開始關注這些“超級寬鬆”的貨幣和財政政策的潛在後果以及相關的退出戰略。
結論：我們認爲，高儲蓄率對於理解中國經濟的各種現象的演化和內在聯繫起着極爲重要的作用。高儲蓄率主要是中國人口政策下的人口結構、經濟快速增長背景 下家庭消費習慣改變緩慢等長期因素作用的結果。在“過度儲蓄優點”的影響下，中國已經並可能繼續保持高增長、低通脹，而且只要繼續保持高儲蓄率，就足以抵 御來自外部的衝擊。在這一背景下，揮之不去的資產價格上漲壓力可能成爲中國經濟的一個常態現象，而非特例，從而成爲政策制定者面臨的最大、也是經常化的宏 觀經濟挑戰，而爲了最大限度地防範資產價格破裂所造成的系統性風險，“降低槓桿率”很可能成爲經濟政策的一個重點。
因此，中國將有必要實施嚴格的房貸抵押制度，限制股票市場的保證金交易，嚴格執行銀行資本充足率要求，非對稱開放外部資本賬戶管制，引導資本流出，控制資本流入，防止對人民幣匯率的單邊下注導致熱錢的涌入。
近期政策影響：我們認爲，當前的政策態勢在年底之前當基本保持不變，並在2010年初隨着銀行新增貸款增長率的正常化(從2009年的9.5萬－10萬 億元降至2010年的7萬－8萬億元)，而轉向中性。在明年年中之前，不大可能出現上調存款準備金率及基準利率以及人民幣升值等緊縮政策。
中國的高儲蓄率實際上是一個資產配置的問題
中國的國民儲蓄約佔GDP的55%，其中19%爲家庭儲蓄，11%爲政府儲蓄， 25%爲企業儲蓄。國民儲蓄只能用於三種用途：境內有形資產、境外有形資產和境外金融資產。境內有形資產主要通過國內固定資產投資的方式形成；境外有形資 產的形成途徑爲中國居民的境外直接投資，或以併購方式獲得現有境外有形資產的所有權；境外金融資產的形成途徑爲中央銀行的官方外匯儲備積累，或跨境自由流 動機制(即無資本賬戶控制)下的私人投資。
一個反覆出現的宏觀主題：高投資、高增長、低通脹
高儲蓄爲促進國內投資的快速增長提供了充足的資金，而高投資反過來又促進了經濟的快速增長。在其他條件不變的情況下，國內高儲蓄支撐的高增長通常會導致 緊縮壓力，而非通脹壓力。具體而言，實施初期的投資項目是總體需求的一部分(即需求曲線向右平移)，因而通常會增長價格上漲的壓力，但是投資最終將導致產 能的擴大，從而大幅增長供給(即供給曲線向右平移)。
在一個高儲蓄的環境中，任何通脹壓力都不可能持續很久。因爲高儲蓄率造成充裕的資金供應，從而使通過投資產生的供給面反應變得極爲迅速。
境外金融資產的主要表現形式是外匯儲備
中國的境外金融資產的主要表現形式爲中央銀行的外匯儲備，約佔中國境外總資產的70%。這主要是因爲資本賬戶的管制導致國內居民不能自由進行境外投資。 不過，以官方外匯儲備形式體現的境外金融資產並不真正反映國內私人儲蓄在境外使用的情況，因爲國內的流動性(即如果沒有資本賬戶管制，則可能已由私營部門 投資於境外有形資產或金融資產所對應的那部分儲蓄)正是由央行的外匯儲備積累而創造的，但卻被限制在中國國內。
揮之不去的資產價格上漲壓力
一方面，央行外匯儲備的積累創造了大量的國內流動性，同時金融投資的需求又很強勁。另一方面，國內資本市場不夠發達，證券化投資產品不足。在中國，85% 的金融中介是通過銀行系統完成的，證券市場只佔10%，而債券市場基本就不存在。
資本市場供需不平衡的趨勢是中國股市估值偏高的一個重要原因。作爲一個貼現機制，目前規模尚小的中國股市揹負了爲整個經濟的“光明未來”進行定價的“沉重包袱”，因此很容易在短期內滋生泡沫，尤其是在投資者的情緒變得亢奮之時。
中國的高儲蓄是一個人口代際現象
高儲蓄率主要是中國的計劃生育政策下的人口結構、經濟快速增長背景下家庭消費習慣改變緩慢等長期因素作用的結果。
“計劃生育政策”以人爲的形式在較短時間內大幅降低了中國的人口撫養比。在其他國家，老齡化是一個自然過程。儘管家庭收入隨着整體經濟增長而迅速增加，但個人消費習慣可能需要好幾年甚至好幾十年才能改變。這是爲什麼“文化因素”常常被認爲是高儲蓄率的原因。
國有企業缺乏社會保障和公司治理等其他結構性因素，雖然對中國的高儲蓄率也有所貢獻，但它們要麼影響甚微，要麼只是上述長期影響因素的間接反應。例如，私人企業佔中國工業企業利潤的70%以上，而私人企業的儲蓄行爲實際上是個人儲蓄行爲的一種延伸。
總體情況：資產價格上漲壓力成爲常態
我們認爲，在“過度儲蓄優點”的影響下，中國已經並可能繼續保持高增長、低通脹，而且只要繼續保持高儲蓄率，就足以抵禦來自外部的衝擊。在這一背景下， 揮之不去的資產價格上漲壓力可能成爲中國經濟的一個常態，而非特例，從而成爲未來幾年政策制定者面臨的最大、也是經常化的宏觀經濟挑戰。
首要政策重點：降低槓桿率同時着眼於最大限度地防範系統性風險
在中國這樣“過度儲蓄”的經濟體，管理資產價格的持續上漲壓力，可能在未來幾年內成爲比控制傳統的CPI上漲或促進經濟增長更重要的政策目標。不過，由 於傳統的貨幣政策工具並非最合適的資產價格上漲管理工具，所以當前的緊迫任務是最大限度地防範資產價格破裂帶來的系統性風險。在低槓桿率下，資產價格破裂 造成的損失要小得多。
“降低槓桿率”很可能成爲經濟系統的一個重要政策目標。因此，將有必要實施嚴格的房貸抵押制度，嚴格限制股票市場的保證金交易，嚴格執行銀行資本充足率要求。
此外，防止對人民幣匯率的單邊下注也十分重要，因爲強烈的人民幣升值預期將導致熱錢的涌入，這是境外投機者使用的另一種槓桿形式。同樣，有必要非對稱開放資本賬戶控制，引導資本流出，控制資本流入。
通過合格國內機構投資者(QDII)以及合格國內散戶投資者(QDRI)的投資活動，開放對外資本賬戶，當有助於滿足國內儲蓄者直接擁有境外金融資產的 需求，從而放緩中央銀行外匯儲備積累及國內流動性創造的速度。不過，對資本流入(特別是短期投資)的控制應當繼續維持或逐步取消。否則資本的流入將會對國 內儲蓄導致的嚴重資產價格上漲壓力起到推波助瀾的作用，並使政策博弈進一步複雜化。
結構性改革日程：放鬆價格管制，發展資本市場
在宏觀風險和系統性風險得到控制之後，應重點採取有助於提升投資質量的結構性改革措施。儘管“過度儲蓄”有助於產生高增長、低通脹等重要數據，但“過度 儲蓄”所創造的資本應當得到有效的配置。因此，放鬆對利率、能源價格及其他重要自然資源商品價格的管制已經不容拖延了。
同時，政府應進一步加快國內資本市場(包括股市和固定收益證券市場)，增加證券化產品的供應以滿足不斷增長的投資機會需求，緩解資產價格上漲的壓力。
促進消費措施效果如何？
自從危機爆發以來，通過降低儲蓄率促進國內消費已經成爲一個政策重點。不過，如果中國的高儲蓄率是一個人口代際現象，在我們看來，實質降低國民儲蓄率的 政策空間將十分有限。尤其是加強社會保障系統以及國有企業的公司治理可能有助於降低家庭儲蓄率，但不會有效降低國民儲蓄率。
任何旨在促進消費的結構性改革可能都會比較溫和，效果也將十分有限。如果採取激進的政策措施強行降低儲蓄率，而無視其人口代際本質，則將適得其反，使得福利體系過於慷慨，超過中國這樣人均收入仍然很低的國家的承受能力。
事實上，我們認爲，就這一問題討論的任何相關政策建議都應被視爲針對收入差距而採取的措施，而非着眼於增加整體消費水平。
