凍土解凍 俄羅斯城市面臨坍塌？大綱

據俄羅斯《西伯利亞時報》報道，一項最新學術研究顯示，由於氣候變化，凍土解凍，建在俄羅斯西伯利亞永久凍土層之上的城市將在未來35年面臨坍塌的威脅。據悉，63%的俄羅斯領土位於永久凍土層之上。到了2050年，最糟糕的情況可能是這些永久凍土層地區的土地承載力減少75%至95%。這將對這些城市產生毀滅性的影響。

Towns and cities across the east of Vladimir Putin's vast empire could 'collapse' in the coming decades because of thawing permafrost.
隨着永久凍土的逐漸消融，弗拉基米爾•普京手中巨大帝國的東部城鎮在未來幾十年間可能會轟然倒塌。

Ground that was once solid is crumbling due to climate change, and the impact for buildings across Arctic and Siberian regions will be 'devastating' by 2050, says a new US-Russian report.
一篇美俄的最新報道稱，由於氣候的變化，曾經堅固的土地開始破裂，截止到2050年，北極地區和西伯利亞地區的建築將會受到毀滅性的影響。

Problems are expected even sooner in Anadyr, the capital of the extreme eastern region on Chukotka, where Chelsea tycoon Roman Abramovich once served as governor.
阿納德爾很快就會面臨難題。阿納德爾是俄羅斯東部楚科奇自治區首府，切爾西大亨羅曼•阿爾卡季耶維奇曾任區長。

Here problems can be expected by the mid-2020s, as they can in Salekhard, a town which straddles the Arctic Circle, gateway Russia's large gas supplies on the Yamal peninsula.
預計21世紀20年代中期，阿納德爾將遇到問題。橫跨北極圈的薩列哈爾德城是亞馬爾半島上俄羅斯大量天然氣供應的樞紐，它也面臨着同樣的威脅。

At risk too from a stark weakening of the 'bearing capacity' of the ground are Russia's diamond capital Yakutsk and nickel mining city Norilsk.
俄羅斯鑽石之都雅庫茨克和鎳礦開採城諾里爾斯克的土地承受能力顯著下降，也面臨危險。

The thaw has major implications for Russia since as much as 63 percent of Russian territory is underpinned by permafrost.
俄羅斯63%的領土都是靠永久凍土支撐，因此凍土消融對俄羅斯影響十分重大。

It is already hitting buildings in northern regions, making them unsafe, and has caused railway lines to become crooked, rendering them useless, reported The Siberian Times.
據《西伯利亞時報》報道，北部地區的建築物已經受到影響，十分不安全，鐵軌也因此變彎，無法再投入使用。

The analysis says a worst-case scenario could lead to a 75-95 percent 'reduction in bearing capacity throughout the permafrost region by 2050'.
分析稱，最糟糕的情況將導致“到2050年，永久凍土地區的承受能力下降75%到95%”。

The authors conclude: 'This can have a devastating effect on cities built on permafrost.'
作者們總結說：“對於建立在永久凍土上的城市來說，這會產生毀滅性影響。”

Thawing of permafrost 'can potentially lead to deformation and collapse of structures', with residential and industrial buildings at risk, but also railway lines, which are used for industrial purposes as well as passengers.
無論是居民樓還是工業建築，永久凍土解凍“可能會導致建築結構的變形和倒塌”，貨運和客運鐵路線也無法倖免於難。

'On average, the fastest changes are projected for Salekhard and Anadyr.
“從大體上預計，薩列哈爾德和阿納德爾的變化最快。”

'There the bearing capacity has potential to decrease to critical levels by (the) mid 2020s.
“21世紀20年代中期，薩列哈爾德和阿納德爾的土體承受能力可能會下降到危險水平。”

'In Yakutsk and Norilsk the critical climate-induced decrease in bearing capacity is expected around (the) 2040s.'
“雅庫茨克和諾里爾斯克由氣候變化導致的土地承受能力嚴重下降預計將出現在21世紀40年代左右。”

The study by experts from The George Washington University and specialists from the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences highlighted these four cities but the threat applies across the vast permafrost territory.
由喬治華盛頓大學專家和俄羅斯科學研究院西伯利亞分院專業人員負責的研究重點指出這四個城市，但威脅已蔓延到了俄境內的大片永久凍土。

Numerous studies show the Russian Arctic is warming at a rate of approximately 0.12C (0.216F) a year - 'significantly faster than the global average', state the authors.
大量的研究表明，俄羅斯北極地區的氣溫每年大約以0.12°C (0.216°F)的速度不斷升溫——研究作者稱，“這比全球平均升溫速度快得多”。

The scale of the thawing in each location could vary and was hard to predict precisely.
每個地區凍土解凍的程度都不同，因此很難做出精確的預測。

And 'well engineered structures' could survive, but there was a need for a change in building techniques.
“建築結構優質的大樓”不會因此倒塌，但是建築技術需要做出改變。