鋅成爲表現最佳金屬 鋅價漲至10個月高位

Zinc, which is used to galvanise steel, has emerged as the best-performing metal this year as supply cuts spur a recovery in sentiment.

鋅成爲今年表現最佳的金屬，減產帶動市場人氣回升。這種金屬被用來生產鍍鋅鋼板。

Prices for the metal rose past $2,000 a tonne on Thursday, their highest level in almost 10 months. This defies a slump in commodities from copper to iron ore and nickel, which have continued to fall over the past month amid concerns about growth in China.

週四，鋅價漲至每噸2000美元上方，這是近10個月來最高水平。這與其它大宗商品（從銅到鐵礦石和鎳）價格大跌形成反差；在市場擔憂中國經濟增長的背景下，過去一個月多數金屬價格繼續下跌。

The zinc market has benefited from action taken by mining company Glencore last year to cut production by a third, as well as the planned closures of two large zinc mines in Australia and Ireland.

鋅市場得益於礦業公司嘉能可(Glencore)去年採取的減產三分之一的行動，以及澳大利亞和愛爾蘭兩個大型鋅礦的關閉計劃。

Production of refined zinc in China is set to drop by about 6 per cent this year to 5.65m tonnes, according to constulancy CRU.

據諮詢公司CRU估計，中國今年的精煉鋅產量將下降約6%，至565萬噸。

A shortage of zinc concentrate, the raw material for making the metal, has also emerged in the country — the largest zinc consumer, according to analysts.

分析師們表示，作爲最大的鋅消費國，中國還出現了鋅精礦（提煉鋅金屬的原材料）短缺。

“The Chinese market is certainly tightening now,” Graham Deller, an analyst at CRU, said. “Especially for the Chinese smelters who are relying on imported concentrate.”

“中國市場眼下肯定趨緊，”CRU分析師格雷厄姆•戴勒(Graham Deller)表示。“尤其是對於那些依賴進口鋅精礦的中國冶煉廠來說。”

In spite of the price rise, traders and analysts remain wary about how much refined metal is sitting in warehouses not monitored by the major metal exchanges in China and London.

儘管價格上漲，但對於不受中國和倫敦主要金屬交易所監測的倉庫裏有多少精煉鋅，交易員和分析師仍持謹慎態度。

The amount of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses has fallen from some 500,000 tonnes in February to 378,725 tonnes. However, analysts caution that the drop may reflect metal moving to other locations, rather than being consumed.

倫敦金屬交易所(LME)倉庫中的鋅已從2月的大約50萬噸降至37.8725萬噸。不過，分析師們告誡稱，庫存下降可能反映了部分鋅被轉移至其他地點，而未必是被消費了。

The premium for zinc in Shanghai, the extra cost traders add to the exchange price for immediate physical delivery of the metal, has continued to fall. That would suggest ample availability of metal for consumers at current prices.

在上海，鋅的溢價（交易員爲直接實物交割這種金屬而添加至交易所價格的額外成本）持續下降。這似乎表明這種金屬在目前價位對消費者供應充足。

“Anyone in a sensible location, they can pick up the metal and provided they are prepared to pay the spot premia for the metal — they can get extra tonnage put on a lorry by the end of the week,” according to CRU’s Deller.

“在合理地點的任何人都可以拿到這種金屬——只要他們願意支付這種金屬的現貨溢價，他們在本週結束前就可以把額外的貨裝上卡車，”CRU的戴勒介紹說。

The presence of that material will mean the market will remain well supplied with refined metal until next year, he said.

他表示，這種庫存意味着，市場上精煉鋅供應充足的局面將可維持到明年。

Goldman Sachs has been one of the most bullish on the outlook for zinc. Last month the bank said it was the metal most likely to benefit from any infrastructure growth in China. A quarter of its end use demand comes from infrastructure, it said.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)是對鋅的前景最樂觀的機構之一。該行上月表示，鋅是最有可能受益於中國基礎設施發展的金屬，稱其最終使用需求的四分之一來自基礎設施建設。

The bank forecast a price of $2,100 a tonne for the next six months.

高盛預計，未來6個月鋅價將達到每噸2100美元。