黃金泡沫破碎 金價大跌

十一月爲堅信黃金價值的投資者帶來了新的不利消息：該月黃金價格下降6%，是6月以來單月下降最多的月份，使2013年度的黃金投資形式更爲嚴峻，也結束了長達13年的黃金市場繁榮。黃金價格今年已經下跌了25%，是自2000年以來的首次。

相比之下，兩年前黃金市場正直旺季。2011年9月，金價達到歷史最高點每盎司1921美元，十年間上漲了550%。金融危機期間投資者熱衷黃金投資，因爲一般來說股票、債券、現金走勢不利時黃金價格會上漲。

由於各國央行不斷向經濟注資，對通貨膨脹的恐慌使得黃金投資更爲誘人。但是隨着歐債危機緩和，美國及其他國家經濟出現復甦徵兆，投資者減輕了對通脹的擔憂。

人們發現更多的著名投資者已經離開黃金投資市場。美聯儲宣佈在就業和經濟增長看好的基礎上放寬債券購買，這一消息直接引發了金價的下跌。

市場開始更加追逐風險，不再保守地將資產穩定在沒有利息和紅利收益的黃金投資上，美國股票價格也創下空前新高。

荷蘭銀行的喬吉特·伯勒說：“黃金泡沫已經破碎，此前支持黃金投資的推手可能會讓貴金屬價格降得更低。我們預計會出現更大規模的拋售。”

伯勒估計，儘管有中國市場的支持，金價還是會在明年跌至每盎司1000美元，到2015年跌至每盎司800美元。

November brought More bad news for believers in the eternal power ofgold: the commodity saw its sharpest monthly price fall since June. This month's 6% drop makes 2013 a terrible year for gold, and is set to mark the end of a 13-year boom. Gold is heading for its first annual fall since 2000 after shedding a quarter of its value this year.

Things were so different in September 2011, when it hit a record price of $1,921 an ounce, a gain of more than 550% in just over a decade. Investors had piled in during the financial crisis: the price of gold traditionally rises when assets such as shares, bonds and cash are threatened.

Gold maintained its allure as central banks pumped money into their economies, raising fears of runaway inflation. But then the easing of fears for the eurozone, and signs of economic recovery in the US and other economies, steadied nerves.

There were few starker signs of the reversal of gold's fortunes than the news that Britain's second-biggest pawnbroker was melting down stock to raise money. Last week Albemarle & Bond admitted it was smelting jewellery to sell for quick cash in order to stay within its lending limits. As recently as 2011 the company went on a gold-fuelled expansion spree and declared "the age of the pawnbroker".

More famous players have also been caught out. The gold fund of John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions betting against the US housing market, is down 63% this year.

The key to the fall is the improving US economy and the response of the Federal Reserve. Gold's troubles began when the Fed said it would ease off its bond purchase programme amid encouraging news on jobs and growth.

With less need to keep money tied up in gold, which pays no interest or dividend, the markets turned "risk-on": investors scrambled for new shares in Royal Mail and other flotations, and US shares are at all-time highs.

Georgette Boele at Dutch bank ABN Amro said: "The gold bubble has burst and ... more of gold's previous supportive drivers are about to push the precious metal much lower. As such we expect additional large sell-offs."

In India, traditionally the world's biggest consumer of gold, the government has imposed punishing duty on gold purchases which has led to mass recycling of some of the 20,000 tonnes of gold stashed in Indian homes.

Consumers in China have been buying gold as they become more affluent. But Boele predicts that despite this, it will fall to $1,000 an ounce next year and $800 in 2015.