投資者應區別對待新興市場國家

It is hardly surprising that global growth scares hit emerging markets More powerfully than developed markets. By the end of last week, share prices in developed markets had recovered most of their losses, while global emerging market equities were down 1.7 per cent and Asian markets, usually the most resilient, had dropped 0.9 per cent. Earlier in the week emerging market assets had reacted in a more contained way, but that “reflected the fact that they had already weakened meaningfully, so positioning was arguably lighter”, wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.

全球增長放緩引發的恐慌對新興市場造成的衝擊大於對發達市場造成的衝擊，這一點並不出人意料。到上週末，發達市場股市已收復了大部分失地，而全球新興市場股市下跌了1.7%，通常最抗壓的亞洲市場股市下跌了0.9%。高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師寫道，本週早些時候，新興市場資產的反應較爲剋制，但那“反映出一個事實：它們已然經歷了幅度不小的下跌，所以頭寸調整可以說不那麼劇烈了”。

Emerging market currencies have been ailing for a while and are down more than 5 per cent for the year. While emerging market investment-grade debt has held up better, it has done so because of slowing growth and more disinflationary and deflationary pressures.

新興市場貨幣已經疲軟了一段時間，今年以來已貶值逾5%。儘管新興市場投資級債券相對而言更加堅挺，但這是因爲經濟增長日益放緩、通脹減速(disinflation)和通縮的壓力有所增大。

There are structural as well as cyclical reasons to continue to be gloomy about emerging market prospects – particularly in Asia. At the same time, though, investors should adopt a more nuanced view. While emerging markets are not about to decouple from the rest of the world, the divergence in performance within that overly broad category may become more dramatic.

我們可以找到與結構和週期相關的理由，來支持繼續看淡新興市場、尤其是亞洲新興市場的前景。但與此同時，投資者也應更加細緻地看待問題。儘管新興市場不會與世界其餘地區脫鉤，但在這個覆蓋範圍極廣的資產類別中，不同地區的表現差異或許會變得更爲顯著。

Asia in particular has to reinvent itself. Its export-led growth model is unlikely to work as well in future as it has for the past decade. Asian exports peaked in 2011 and since then manufacturers’ pricing power has grown weaker. Most importantly, China is shifting to a more domestic demand-led model. In recent years Chinese exports had big spillover effects for the rest of the region via supply-chain linkages, but those are starting to dwindle, according to Andrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. Moreover China’s market share has stabilised, suggesting that trade gains will be more a zero-sum game.

亞洲尤其需要重塑自我。它的出口拉動型增長模式在未來不太可能像在過去10年裏那麼有效。2011年，亞洲的出口達到頂峯。自那以來，製造商的定價能力變得越來越弱。最重要的是，中國開始轉向更加依賴國內需求拉動增長的模式。高盛駐香港的安德魯•蒂爾頓(Andrew Tilton)表示，近年來，中國的出口通過供應鏈紐帶對亞洲其餘地區產生了很大的溢出效應，但這些效應已開始減弱。此外，中國的市場份額已穩定下來，這意味着對貿易收益的爭奪將更多地變成一場零和遊戲。

At the same time developed markets are growing more slowly. Worryingly, the US “will no longer be the consumer of first resort for emerging markets, given its improved competitiveness and reduced energy dependence”, notes Shweta Singh, senior economist at Lombard Street Research. Also the cost of credit in the world is rising, making Asian-style debt-fuelled growth more expensive. Financial conditions are tightening for emerging market companies as spreads widen and local currencies drop.

另一方面，發達市場的增長正變得更加緩慢。朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的高級經濟學傢什韋塔•辛格(Shweta Singh)指出，令人擔憂的是，美國“將不再是新興市場的首要消費者，因爲美國的競爭力提高了，對能源的依賴下降了”。此外，全球信貸成本正在升高，也推高了亞洲那種債務驅動型增長的成本。隨着息差擴大、本幣貶值，新興市場企業的資金環境正在趨緊。

Still, the impact of big macro trends differs among countries. For example one of Morgan Stanley’s favourite currency trades these days is to go long on the Indian rupee against the Indonesian rupiah. The Morgan Stanley trade partly reflects the beneficial effect that falling oil prices have on India’s current account and inflation, as well as the two countries’ differing dependence on US dollar funding. But, more profoundly, the trade reflects a general reversal in the relative fortunes of commodity importers and exporters. That reversal is taking place against a backdrop of a slowing China, which in turn is leading to lower demand for coal, iron, and oil.

不過，這一重大宏觀趨勢對不同國家產生的影響並不相同。例如，近期摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最青睞的外匯交易之一，是做多印度盧比、做空印尼盾。這在一定程度上反映出了油價下跌對印度經常賬戶和通脹產生的有益影響，還反映出這兩個國家對美元融資的依賴程度不同。但意義更爲深刻的是，該交易反映出了大宗商品進口國與出口國之間命運對比的總體逆轉。這一逆轉的大背景是：中國經濟增長放緩，導致煤炭、鐵和石油需求降低。

In large part thanks to lower oil prices, India’s current account deficit is at its lowest in six years. By contrast Indonesia’s deficit more than doubled to 4.3 per cent of GDP in the second quarter. A more benign environment could lead to a sustained virtuous circle in India, in which lower inflation promotes a stable currency and makes it possible in turn for the central bank to cut interest rates.

主要得益於油價降低，如今印度的經常賬戶赤字處於6年來的最低水平。相比之下，印尼今年二季度的赤字增加了一倍多，達到了國內生產總值(GDP)的4.3%。更有利的大環境可能導致印度出現持久的良性循環——通脹水平降低有助於維持幣值穩定，進而爲印度央行降息提供可能性。

India has already accumulated a sizeable war chest of about $315bn in reserves, compared with about $110bn for resource-rich Indonesia. And India is far less reliant on US dollar funding. Indonesia depends on foreigners to take 37 per cent of the debt issued in its local debt market. “Soft commodity prices, an uncomfortable current account deficit and rising real interest rates have conspired to drive Indonesia’s GDP growth down from a peak of 6.5 per cent to a lower growth channel of 5.0-5.5 per cent for 2014-2016,” Morgan Stanley says.

印度已積攢下了規模可觀的外匯儲備，金額約爲3150億美元。與之相比，資源富國印尼的外匯儲備爲1110億美元左右。另外，印度對美元融資的依賴程度要低得多。而印尼在國內債市發行的債務，37%被外資買走。摩根士丹利表示：“在疲軟的大宗商品價格、令人頭疼的經常賬戶赤字以及不斷升高的實際利率的共同作用下，印尼的GDP增長率已從6.5%的峯值下滑至較低的增長通道，2014至2016年的年增長率將爲5.0%至5.5%。”

Divergence and relative shifts in fortunes are also likely in Latin America. Mexico appears to have stronger short-term prospects than Brazil or Chile, since 80 per cent of its exports go to the US, Ms Singh adds. A strong dollar also helps Mexico. But a world where emerging markets are battened on by their rich neighbours is unlikely to return.

這種分化和相對命運的轉換很可能也會出現在拉美。辛格補充道，墨西哥的短期前景看來要強於巴西或智利，因爲墨西哥對美出口佔該國總出口的80%。美元堅挺也幫助了墨西哥。但是，那個新興市場靠其富裕鄰國發跡的時代很可能一去不復返了。