國際金融協會 新興市場復甦難持續

This year’s recovery in emerging market economies has continued in the second quarter, according to the latest EM growth tracker from the Institute of International Finance, an industry group.

全球性金融業協會——國際金融協會(IIF)發佈的最新新興市場增長追蹤報告顯示，今年新興市場經濟體的復甦勢頭在第二季度持續。

It shows GDP growth across emerging markets edging up 0.1 percentage points to 3.4 per cent in April at a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate, putting growth across EMs 0.4 pp above its 12-month moving average.

報告顯示，4月整個新興市場經過季節調整的季度環比GDP增長率年率比3月上升0.1個百分點，至3.4%，這讓整個新興市場的增長率比其12個月移動平均值高0.4個百分點。

If confirmed, the data show EM economies continuing to rebound from a low reached in the first quarter of 2015, when aggregated actual GDP growth fell to 2.5 per cent a year, according to the IIF.

如果該報告得到證實，那就表明新興市場經濟體繼續從2015年第一季度的低點反彈——當時IIF的數據顯示，新興市場GDP實際總體年度增長率降至2.5%。

Are EMs on the road to recovery? The idea that EMs are cyclical, to the extent of moving in line with commodity prices, certainly has its followers. But the IIF’s analysts do not buy that.

新興市場正走在復甦的路上嗎？當然有人支持新興市場增長跟隨大宗商品價格走勢呈現週期性波動的觀點。但IIF的分析師不這麼認爲。

Hung Tran, the IIF’s director for capital markets, said that EMs had indeed been enjoying a rebound, but doubted it would last.

IIF資本市場總監洪川(Hung Tran)表示，新興市場確實處於反彈之中，但他懷疑這種反彈能否持續。

“What we have been seeing is a short-term cyclical rebound helped along by developed market central banks and by the People’s Bank of China,” he said. “But the long-term structural headwinds are still there and getting stronger.”

他說：“我們看到的是短期的週期性反彈，它是發達市場央行和中國人民銀行(PBOC)促成的，但長期的結構性阻礙仍然存在，而且變得越來越強。”

He said that the pick-up in economic activity across EMs had been driven by rising commodity prices, driven in turn by demand from China on the back of total credit expansion in China of more than 40 per cent in the first quarter.

洪川表示，整個新興市場經濟活動回暖受到大宗商品價格上漲的推動——在中國第一季度整體信貸增長40%的背景下，中國需求推動了大宗商品價格的上漲。

“The story is the same,” he said. “The debt overhand has only got bigger. The PBoC and other central banks can provide short-term support here and there but without tackling structural issues they won’t address the real challenge. The bumpy road ahead doesn’t exclude the kind of short-term pick-up we have seen in the past few months.”

他說：“故事是一樣的。債務積壓只會越來越嚴重。中國人民銀行和其他央行可以提供這樣那樣的短期支持，但如果沒有解決結構性問題，它們將解決不了真正的挑戰。未來道路崎嶇並不意味着不會出現我們過去幾個月看到的那種短期回暖。”

The IIF’s EM growth tracker is built from data in three categories: business surveys, hard data and financial variables.

IIF的新興市場增長追蹤報告基於如下3類數據：企業調查、硬數據以及金融變量。

Financial variables showed the strongest growth in April, driven by rising prices for oil and metals and for EM equities and bonds.

4月金融變量顯示出最強的增長，這是受到石油和金屬價格以及新興市場股票和債券價格上漲的推動。

Among hard data, trade was the main source of strength, the IIF said, driven by better export growth in Argentina and Indonesia. But the picture was uneven: those two countries plus Brazil and Thailand were the only four out of 10 monitored by the IIF to see growth in merchandise exports over the past three months.

IIF表示，在硬數據當中，貿易是主要的增長源泉，受到阿根廷和印尼出口增長上升的推動。但新興市場情況並不一致：在IIF觀察的10個國家當中，只有阿根廷、印尼、巴西和泰國這4個國家在過去3個月的商品出口出現增長。

Industrial production was flat: it was positive in China, though less so than previously, while IP in EM ex-China continued to slow, also less so than previously.

工業生產保持不變：中國出現增長，儘管幅度沒有以前那麼大，同時不包括中國在內的新興市場工業生產繼續放緩，幅度同樣不如先前那麼大。

Business surveys tracked downwards in April, undoing half of their recovery in March.

4月企業調查數據下行，抹掉了3月一半的漲幅。