新興市場投資再度升溫

Investors in emerging markets took fright when Donald Trump won the US election, pulling tens of billions of dollars from investment funds over fears that the new president’s policies would usher in a wave of problems for the asset class.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得美國大選後，新興市場投資者感到害怕。由於擔心這位新總統的政策給該資產類別帶來一波問題，他們從相關投資基金撤出了數百億美元。

Half a year later, investors have shrugged off concerns about a so-called Trump slump. They are Moving back into emerging markets in an attempt to generate returns in the low-yield environment and exploit strong economic growth in countries from India to Colombia.

半年後，投資者拋棄了對所謂“特朗普低迷”的擔憂。他們重新回到新興市場，企圖在低收益環境獲得回報，並從新興市場國家（從印度到哥倫比亞）的強勁經濟增長中獲利。

Emerging market funds registered their 10th straight week of inflows in the week ended May 24, the same week Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of China, the biggest country in the asset class. But emerging markets — which are home to 80 per cent of the world’s population — are not for the meek. Witness the carnage that occurred in 2008 when the MSCI emerging markets index, which includes more than 20 countries such as Russia, South Africa and the Czech Republic, lost more than half its value in one year.

在截至5月24日的那個星期，新興市場基金錄得連續第10周資金流入，即便穆迪(Moody's)在同一周下調了中國（該資產類別中最大的國家）的主權信用評級。但是，佔世界人口80%的新興市場不適合膽小者。2008年發生的那一輪崩盤就是例證。當時，涵蓋俄羅斯、南非、捷克等逾20個國家的MSCI明晟新興市場指數(MSCI Emerging Markets index)在一年內失去一半以上價值。

Emerging markets also haemorrhaged money in 2011, and again in 2013, 2014 and 2015, after investors withdrew from the asset class when the US Federal Reserve said it would wind down its bond-buying programme. This sell-off accelerated on the back of a fall in prices for oil and other commodities, which are important industries in many emerging markets.

新興市場也分別在2011年、2013年、2014年和2015年遭遇資金“失血”，最後一次是因爲美聯儲表示要逐步縮減債券購買計劃後，投資者撤出這一資產類別，而石油及其他大宗商品價格的下跌，加快了這輪拋售，因爲這些行業對許多新興市場國家十分重要。

Last year, however, investors gradually returned to emerging markets, leading to a turnround in performance and an 11.2 per cent gain in the MSCI emerging markets index.

然而，投資者去年逐漸返回了新興市場，使行情止跌回升，MSCI明晟新興市場指數上漲11.2%。

More than $100bn has flowed into funds investing in emerging markets in the 12 months to the end of March as investors attempt to tap into demographic shifts ushering in much larger middle classes with money to spend. This compares with redemptions of $35bn the previous year, according to Morningstar, the data provider.

根據數據提供商晨星(Morningstar)的說法，在截至3月底的12個月裏，逾1000億美元資金流入了投資新興市場的基金，原因是投資者試圖獲益於人口結構轉變，後者催生了規模龐大得多、手中有錢可花的中產階級。這與此前一年350億美元的贖回形成了對照。