國際投資者如何看待中國牛市

Direct quotas to invest in China have been unexpectedly revived as foreign investors select tried-and-tested ways to ride theequity bull run in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

直接投資於中國內地股市的資金額度意外大幅增長，因爲境外投資者選擇經過實踐檢驗的方式來參與上海和深圳的牛市。

Bankers and lawyers had expected the introduction of the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect, the first direct market link between mainland China and the outside world, launched six months ago this week to lower interest in using existing systems. In these, investors either apply for their own permission from Beijing — a lengthy process — or pay to use someone else’s quota, such as their bank’s.

銀行家和律師們本來預計“滬港通”的推出將會降低投資者使用現有機制的興趣。“滬港通”於半年前的本週啓動，是首個將中國內地與外部世界連接起來的市場機制。而在直接投資額度機制下，投資者要麼自己向中國政府申請額度（這是一個漫長的過程），要麼花錢使用其他人的額度，比如他們所在銀行的額度。

But China’s surging stocks have produced a scramble for exposure to the gains, particularly from foreign fund managers who may not be benchmarked to China itself, but risk underperforming if they don’t find ways of following the rally and any spillover effects.

但中國內地股市飆升吸引投資者紛紛涌入，尤其是外國基金公司，它們可能還沒有以中國市場爲基準，但如果不設法跟隨中國股市上漲並分享溢出效應，它們的業績就可能落後於他人。

In spite of a correction last week, Shanghai has still risen 76 per cent in the past six months while Shenzhen has added 80 per cent. Hong Kong has gained 16 per cent, helped by a recent rally that was supported by record trading volumes.

儘管上週出現了回調，但上海市場在過去6個月裏仍上漲了76%，同時深圳市場上漲了80%。在創紀錄交易量的幫助下，香港市場最近大漲，半年來累計上漲了16%。

The Stock Connect’s limited range of 300 companies and overseas investors’ ongoing issues with ownership of the shares they buy has left many preferring to rely on the use of quotas instead.

“滬港通”機制所涵蓋的公司數量有限，而且境外投資者購買的股票還存在所有權問題，這讓許多投資者仍願意使用配額機制。

“When Stock Connect was about to start, the expectation was there would be less demand for quotas, but we’ve seen no curtailment yet,” says Michael Chan, head of BNY Mellon’s Asia-Pacific asset servicing business.

紐銀梅隆(BNY Mellon)亞太資產服務業務主管Michael Chan表示：“在‘滬港通’即將啓動之際，人們預期直接投資額度需求將會下降，但我們迄今沒有看到任何需求下降的情況。”

China’s qualified foreign institutional investor scheme — QFII, pronounced “kew-fie” — has been in place for more than a decade with few significant changes to its structure apart from a gradual increase of total approvals, which were standing at $72bn in late March.

中國的合格境外機構投資者(QFII)項目已經推出了十多年，除了獲批額度總額逐步增加以外一直沒有大的改變——今年3月底總額度爲720億美元。

There is also a Rmb330bn ($53bn) RQFII scheme, allowing approved users to use offshore renminbi for onshore investments.

此外中國還有一項總額度爲3300億元人民幣（合530億美元）的人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)項目，RQFII牌照持有者可用離岸持有的人民幣投資中國內地市場。

In March, Fidelity was granted a tripling of its QFII quota to $1.2bn, making it the first non-government institution to be approved for more than $1bn — a move seen as a further broadening of the scheme.

今年3月，富達(Fidelity)獲得的QFII額度增加兩倍至12億美元，從而成爲首個獲批逾10億美元投資額度的非政府機構，此舉被視爲中國政府進一步擴大該項目的跡象。

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been working frantically to address problems raised by international fund managers, who have had concerns over the legal status of investments held through Stock Connect and their ownership of those shares at various points during the trading cycle.

香港交易所(Hong Kong Stock Exchange)一直致力於解決國際基金公司提出的問題，後者擔憂通過“滬港通”持有的投資的法律地位以及交易週期內不同時點所購股份的所有權問題。

“Stock Connect is being used by banks and mostly new users — hedge funds and smaller asset managers who may not have had access before. That will change as it develops,” says Stephane Loiseau, head of Société Générale’s cash equities and execution services business in Asia.

法國興業銀行(Société Générale)的亞洲股票現貨和執行服務業務主管斯特凡納•盧瓦索(Stephane Loiseau)表示：“目前在使用‘滬港通’的主要是銀行以及新用戶——之前未能進入內地市場的對衝基金和規模較小的資產管理公司——這種情況將會隨着該項目的發展而改變。”

Another issue is the different holidays in Hong Kong and the mainland. These mean the northbound trading link — the pipe through which foreigners buy — is closed on Shanghai holidays as well as Hong Kong ones. It is also closed on the days before a Hong Kong holiday since trades are settled the following day. In total that adds up to 28 days with no access even though six of them are not market holidays in Hong Kong.

另一個問題是香港和內地的節假日差異。這意味着滬股通——也就是境外投資者購買內地股票的渠道——在上海和香港兩地的節假日都會關閉。此外，由於交易在第二天進行結算，滬股通在香港節假日休市的前一天也會關閉。全年總計有28天投資者無法通過該渠道投資，儘管其中6天並非香港的休市時間。

“This is one of the big drawbacks and should have been taken care of before Stock Connect opened,” says Nicole Yuen, head of greater China equities at Credit Suisse, who also felt the ownership issues should have been cleared up before the link opened.

“這是一個重大缺陷，本應在滬港通啓動前解決，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)大中華地區證券部主管袁淑琴(Nicole Yuen)表示，她還認爲所有權問題也應在滬港通啓動前解決。

“We’re at the cusp of China opening up and it isn’t just about opening the doors, it has to be done right. There’s a balance needed between access to China and doing that with the core values of Hong Kong and international markets.”

“我們處在中國改革開放的節點上，不僅要打開大門，還要處理得當。在打開中國的入口和在這一進程中保證香港和國際市場的核心價值之間，需要取得一個平衡。”

Longer term, however, market participants expect more investors, institutional and other, to use Stock Connect as it expands. A link with the Shenzhen exchange, home to many tech groups and start-ups, is expected later this year.

然而，更長期來看，市場參與者預計隨着滬港通不斷拓展，將有更多機構投資者和其他投資者使用這一投資渠道。與深圳交易所的連通渠道預計將於今年晚些時候開放。深交所是許多科技集團和初創公司的上市地。

“People are looking at Stock Connect and going ‘well, people are coming in, China is opening up and we need to get in there before the rush’,” says Mark Shipman, a partner at Clifford Chance who specialises in structuring investment funds.

“人們正在觀察滬港通，並且這樣思考‘投資者正在進入，中國正在開放，我們需要在熱潮到來前進入’，”高偉紳律師事務所(Clifford Chance)專注結構性投資基金業務的合夥人馬克•希普曼(Mark Shipman)說。

The Stock Connect also offers investors the sort of virtually anonymous access to China they get elsewhere — unlike QFII, where approvals mean investors are known and their trading decisions tracked.

滬港通還爲投資者提供了他們在其他地方可以獲得的那種幾乎匿名的投資渠道。這一點與QFII不同，獲准QFII資格意味着投資者會爲外界所知，交易決策也會被追蹤。

Mr Loiseau described China as “a trend, not just a hot topic”.

興業銀行的盧瓦索形容中國代表着“一種趨勢，並不僅僅是一個熱門話題”。

“If you’re an investor in Club Med, now you know about Fosun [which bought the French holiday group in February],” he says. “Not every Chinese asset is listed in New York like Alibaba — investors have to come to Hong Kong and China eventually.”

“如果你是地中海俱樂部(Club Méditerranée)的投資者，你現在知道復星（Fosun，今年2月收購了這家法國度假村集團）了，”他說，“並不是每一項中國資產都像阿里巴巴(Alibaba)那樣在紐約上市——投資者最終必須到香港和中國內地來。”