離岸人民幣跌破八個月低點

Global investors are souring on the yuan, sending the currency in offshore markets to its weakest level in More than eight months Wednesday, in line with its falling onshore counterpart as China continues its campaign to send it lower.

全球投資者正在摒棄人民幣，週三離岸市場人民幣跌至八個多月以來的最低水平，與本地市場走勢一致，主要因爲中國仍在致力於推低人民幣。

As money managers bailed out of the offshore yuan, freely traded outside China, it fell as low as 6.1497 to the U.S. dollar. That marks a drop of more than 1% since mid-February, when Beijing begun steering the onshore currency lower to shake off speculators placing one-way bets on its gains.

隨着投資經理們紛紛拋棄離岸人民幣，離岸市場美元兌人民幣一度升至6.1497元，意味着自2月中旬以來離岸人民幣的累計跌幅已經超過1%。中國政府於2月中旬開始引導本地市場人民幣走低，以趕走那些押注人民幣單邊升值的投機者們。

Traders are focused on the daily reference rate, which the People's Bank of China has been setting weaker in recent sessions. The tightly controlled onshore currency is then allowed to trade within a band that runs 1% above and below that figure. Wednesday's daily reference rate was set at 6.1343, compared with 6.1327 Tuesday; a higher number means a weaker yuan.

交易員們關注於每日的匯率中間價。近幾個交易日中國央行一直在調低人民幣中間價。國內人民幣市場受到嚴格管控，美元兌人民幣只能在中間價上下各1%的區間內浮動。週三，央行將美元/人民幣中間價設在6.1343元，高於週二的6.1327元。

'The weaker fixings over the course of this week have seen the market taking the view that we are likely to see more weakness in the near term--and as a result, there is no justification for the CNH [offshore yuan] to be trading at a premium,' said Khoon Goh, a currency strategist at ANZ Bank in Singapore. The offshore yuan, formerly trading at a substantial premium to the onshore yuan, has moved into a slight discount, he said, a result of the surprisingly weak fixings.

澳新銀行(ANZ Bank)駐新加坡外匯策略師Khoon Goh說，本週以來央行逐步下調了人民幣中間價，令市場認爲短期內人民幣可能進一步走低；因此，離岸人民幣也沒有溢價的理由了。以前，離岸人民幣匯率總是較本地人民幣匯率高出很多，但最近由於央行設定的人民幣中間價出乎意料地低，離岸人民幣轉而略微低於本地水平。

'We've seen quite a substantial unwind of [offshore yuan] positions' by investors, he said. 'And we're seeing further cleanups in positioning, which has caused the CNH to weaken more.'

他說，投資者們已經解除了相當多的離岸人民幣頭寸，目前投資者正在進一步解除這一頭寸，進而推動離岸人民幣繼續下跌。

In recent years, the view that the yuan will get nothing but stronger has encouraged an increasing number of investors to place bets on the one-way trade using the offshore yuan, analysts say. The high demand is the reason the offshore yuan has typically traded at a premium.

分析師們指出，近幾年來，在“人民幣將單邊上漲”的觀點推動下，越來越多的投資者利用離岸人民幣押注這一單邊走勢。這種旺盛需求正是離岸人民幣匯率通常高過本地的原因。

As the offshore yuan begins to react to the weakening in the onshore yuan, says Geoff Kendrick, head of Asian currencies and rates at Morgan Stanley, one worry is that it is 'getting close to the 6.15-6.20 danger zone,' which would trigger losses for billions of dollars' worth of leveraged bets.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亞洲貨幣和利率主管肯德里克(Geoff Kendrick)表示，隨着離岸人民幣開始對本地人民幣的跌勢做出反應，一個令人擔心的情況是離岸美元/人民幣匯率正逼近人民幣6.15-6.20元這一危險區間，可能會造成槓桿式押注損失數十億美元。

If the currency weakens from these levels, he said, the offshore yuan risks an accelerated fall further.

他說，若上述區間被突破，那麼離岸人民幣就有進一步加速下跌的風險。