人爲財死 英國在歐盟進退兩難

David Cameron’s acknowledgement that he was not greeted with a “wall of love” at last week’s EU summit demonstrated a flair for languid British understatement. In reality, the prime minister’s long-anticipated demand for a renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU has been met with a mixture of anger and incomprehension.

英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)承認，他在最近的歐盟峯會上沒有得到“友愛”，這說明他還是有一點英國式輕描淡寫的天賦的。實際上，他就英國的歐盟成員國身份重新舉行談判的要求，得到的是憤怒加不理解。人們早就料到他會提出這一要求。

The UK’s demands are doubtless inconvenient for the other EU leaders. But Mr Cameron is simply playing out the latest act in Britain’s ambivalent relationship with the rest of the European continent, a drama that has been going for centuries.

對其他歐盟國家的領導人來說，英國的要求無疑令人不快。但英國與歐洲其他國家的矛盾關係是一部持續數世紀之久的大戲，卡梅倫只是在演最新的一幕。

Britain’s debate about Europe echoes arguments that were taking place nearly 300 years ago when Sir Robert Walpole became [THE FIRST?]the first prime minister[OR IS THIS WHEN HE BECAME CHANCELLOR?]. Robert Tombs, the Cambridge historian, notes that Walpole, a Whig, believed Britain should play a “major role in Europe”, while his Tory [MIGHT HELP TO SAY HE WAS A WHIG]opponents preferred “overseas trade, not European commitments”.

英國關於歐洲的辯論，令人想起了近300年前羅伯特•沃波爾爵士(Sir Robert Walpole)成爲首任英國首相時發生的爭論。劍橋大學(Cambridge)歷史學家羅伯特•圖姆斯(Robert Tombs)指出，輝格黨人沃波爾相信，英國應該“在歐洲扮演主要角色”，同時他的保守黨對手則偏向“海外貿易，而不是致力於歐洲事務”。

As the leader of the modern Tories, Mr Cameron is the inheritor of his party’s traditional suspicion of European entanglements. Winston Churchill, the greatest of all Tory prime ministers, once told Charles de Gaulle that faced with a choice between Europe and “le grand large” (the open sea), Britain would always look beyond Europe.

作爲現代保守黨的領導人，卡梅倫繼承了該黨傳統上對是否應參與歐洲糾葛的懷疑。最偉大的保守黨首相溫斯頓•邱吉爾(Winston Churchill)曾經告訴夏爾•戴高樂(Charles de Gaulle)，在歐洲和“廣闊天地”（遠海）之間做選擇的時候，英國總是把目光投向歐洲以外。

Even Britain’s pro-Europeans have often taken a certain pride in steering clear of the worst upheavals on the European continent. Walpole boasted to the Queen in 1734: “Madam, there are 50,000 men slain in Europe this year, and not one Englishman.” Mr Cameron’s own audiences with the Queen have probably included similar sighs of relief over Britain’s ability to steer clear of the worst of the euro crisis.

甚至英國的親歐人士也往往對英國沒有陷入歐洲大陸最嚴重的動盪而感到某種程度的自豪。沃波爾曾在1734年向英國女王誇耀道：“陛下，今年歐洲有5萬人遭到屠殺，但沒有一個是英國人。”卡梅倫自己在覲見英國女王時，很可能也會同樣對英國能夠在歐元危機最嚴重時期免受影響，而長出一口氣。

The commitment to a referendum is Mr Cameron’s concession to political forces that believe, like 18th-century Tories, that Britain should look to the world beyond Europe. Global Britain, one of the organisations campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, argues: “Britain’s destiny ceased to be European centuries ago when English settlers began their transatlantic odyssey.”

公投承諾是卡梅倫向一些政治力量的妥協。這些政治力量就像18世紀的保守黨一樣相信英國應該着眼於歐洲以外的世界。致力於英國脫歐的組織之一Global Britain辯稱：“早在幾個世紀前英格蘭定居者開始跨越大西洋之旅的時候，英國的命運就不再在歐洲。”

Statements such as that make it easy to portray eurosceptics as backward-looking nostalgics. But there is also a forward-looking case to be made for Britain to take a global approach. The past few years of infighting and financial chaos have not been a compelling advertisement for the EU. The most dynamic economies in the world are in Asia and the most exciting technological developments are taking place in the US.

諸如此類的宣稱讓人很容易將歐元懷疑論者描述爲向後看的懷舊者。但英國着眼全球也有前瞻性的理由。過去幾年的內訌和金融危機可不是什麼有說服力的歐盟廣告。全球最具活力的經濟體是在亞洲，最令人興奮的技術發展發生在美國。

The real objection to the current case for Britain quitting the EU is simply that it poses a false choice between Europe and the rest of world. In reality, Britain has always attempted to be both a European and a global power.

當前真正反對英國退出歐盟的理由僅僅是，它提出了在歐洲和世界其他地區之間二選一的錯誤選擇。實際上，英國總是試圖在歐洲和全球同時稱雄。

Both Walpole and his foes turned out to be right. The Tories were correct to spot that Britain’s greatest commercial and political opportunities would lie outside Europe. The Whigs were right to believe it would be impossible to avoid European “entanglements”.

事實證明，沃波爾和他的對手都是正確的。保守黨正確地指出，英國最大的商業和政治機遇將在歐洲以外的地區。輝格黨正確地認爲，避開歐洲“糾葛”將是不可能的。

Next month Britain celebrates the 200th anniversary of victory in the ultimate European entanglement: the Battle of Waterloo. There is a eurosceptic version of Waterloo that portrays it as a British triumph over an ambitious European centraliser: Napoleon. The europhile version points out that Wellington commanded a multinational coalition and secured victory only after the late arrival on the battlefield of the Prussians.

英國將在本月慶祝在終極歐洲糾葛——滑鐵盧戰役(Batttle of Waterloo)中取得勝利200週年。歐元懷疑論者將滑鐵盧戰役描述爲英國對野心勃勃的歐洲集權者拿破崙的勝利。親歐者則指出，惠靈頓公爵只是在普魯士人後來抵達戰場之後才指揮多國聯軍獲得勝利。

The construction of winning coalitions in Europe has, so far, not been Mr Cameron’s forte. Last year, in a conference chamber a few miles from Waterloo, he went down to a heavy defeat in his effort to block the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission. On this occasion British hopes for the Germans to come to the rescue were disappointed.

迄今爲止，卡梅倫並不擅長在歐洲聯合盟友取得勝利。去年，在距滑鐵盧數英里之外的一個會議室裏，他阻止讓-克洛德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)擔任歐盟委員會(European Commission)主席的努力遭遇嚴重挫敗。這一次，英國人希望德國人出面救援的願望落空了。

If Mr Cameron sustains further defeats in his efforts to cut a new deal with the EU, those[BIG C?] who want Britain to leave Europe will be emboldened. They will argue that engagement with Europe need not entail membership of the EU. And they will add that if Britain wants to trade successfully with the rest of the world, it will do better if it frees itself from suffocating European regulation.

如果卡梅倫與歐盟締結新協議的努力再次失敗，那些希望英國退出歐盟的人將會受到鼓舞。他們將辯稱，與歐洲打交道不需要成爲歐盟成員國。他們還會接着說，如果英國希望成功地與世界其他國家開展貿易，擺脫令人窒息的歐洲監管會讓它做得更好。

Both arguments sound plausible, but both are flawed. The fact is that every other large country in Europe, bar Russia, is now a member of the EU. If Britain leaves, it will have to adapt to EU policies that it will have no hand in formulating. The price of continuing unfettered access to the EU’s single market is likely to be acceptance of the very regulations Britain’s anti-Europeans dream of escaping.

這兩種觀點聽起來貌似有理，但它們都是錯誤的。事實上，除了俄羅斯，歐洲的其他大國現在都是歐盟成員國。如果英國退出歐盟，它將不得不適應自己無法插手製定的歐盟政策。繼續自由進入歐盟單一市場的代價，可能就是接受英國反歐人士夢想逃避的那些監管。

Finally, the idea that EU regulation prevents Britain from competing in global markets is a myth. Germany exports five times more to China than Britain[SOURCE/LINK?] — despite the alleged handicap of EU membership. The real challenge of Mr Cameron’s renegotiation is one that Tory anti-Europeans barely mention: maintaining British influence within the EU while staying outside the European single currency.

最後，歐盟監管妨礙英國在全球市場競爭的觀點是天方夜譚。儘管有歐盟成員國身份的所謂桎梏，但德國對華出口仍是英國對華出口的5倍。卡梅倫重新談判歐盟成員國身份的真正挑戰是保守黨的反歐人士很少提及的：如何保持英國在歐盟內部的影響力，同時留在歐洲單一貨幣之外。

Mr Cameron certainly knows that. His challenge is to retain control of the modern Tory party while maintaining a Walpole-like determination to maintain British engagement with Europe.

卡梅倫當然知道這一點。他的挑戰在於，在像沃波爾那樣保持決心讓英國繼續與歐洲打交道的同時，保持對現代保守黨的控制。