Lex專欄 H股重現魅力
Tarting up window displays is not just for shop keepers. Fund managers, too, often dress up their portfolios at the end of each quarter, buying good performers to make their holdings appear prettier. So as Asia rallied yesterday — near the end of the year’s first quarter — index strength could be dismissed as predominantly cosmetic.
會精心佈置櫥窗陳設的可不僅僅是店主。基金經理也會在每個季度的末尾“盛裝打扮”各自的投資組合，買入業績優良的股票，讓所持股票的陣容看上去更漂亮。因此，在亞洲股市昨日（第一季度接近尾聲）上揚之際，有人也許對指數的強勁不以爲意，視其爲主要是“妝容”所致。
But that is not the whole story. Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and comprising the ‘H’ share index (HSCEI) led the region, up nearly 4 per cent. This should not be surprising: the HSCEI has been a laggard.
但這並不是事情的全部。在香港上市、組成H股指數（香港恆生中國企業指數(HSCEI)）的中國公司表現最爲突出，上漲近4%。這不應讓人意外：H股指數近來是落後者。Since last June, northern siblings Shanghai and Shenzhen have gained 86 and 77 per cent, respectively. H shares are up just one-fifth. Domestic buyers in Shanghai and Shenzhen have clearly been More bullish about China than the foreign buyers of H shares.
自去年6月以來，中國內地的滬深股市分別上漲了86%和77%。而H股上漲幅度僅爲五分之一。滬深股市上的國內投資者顯然比H股的外國投資者更加看好中國。
So H shares look like a good bargain. The HSCEI trades on 8 times 2016 earnings, for growth of 11 per cent. For companies with both A and H shares, moreover, the Hong Kong lines are one-quarter cheaper. Large companies such as oil major PetroChina as well as financials including Bank of China at discounts of 10 to 20 per cent drag down the average. Even after rallying nearly one-fifth yesterday, H shares in Shanghai Electric and China Railway Construction (a beneficiary of China’s New Silk Road infrastructure plans) are still one-third and one half the price of their A share alternatives.
因此H股看上去是一筆合算的買賣。目前H股公司股價是2016年預期盈利的8倍，而預期盈利增幅達到11%。此外，在內地和香港兩地上市的公司，其H股股價相對便宜四分之一。石油巨頭中石油(PetroChina)等大公司股票以及中國銀行(BoC)等金融股的折價幅度達10%到20%，拉低了平均水平。即使昨日H股上漲近五分之一，但上海電氣(Shanghai Electric)和中國鐵建（China Railway Construction，中國“新絲綢之路”基礎設施建設計劃的受益者之一）的H股股價也分別只有A股的三分之一和一半。There are other reasons for the rally. Zhou Xiaochuan, People’s Bank of China governor, has reiterated the country’s commitment to growth as deflationary fears rise. This is likely to mean more monetary easing: since last November, China has cut rates twice.
還有其他原因促成了股價上漲。中國央行(PBoC)行長周小川重申，在通縮恐懼上升之際，中國仍致力於保持增長。這可能意味着貨幣政策的進一步寬鬆：中國自去年11月以來已兩次下調利率。Hopes that A shares might join the MSCI indices this year gives further bullish impetus. HSBC forecasts that foreign holdings in mainland markets will increase more than threefold by 2020. This is already under way: last week Fidelity received permission from China’s regulator to triple its A share investments.
今年，中國A股有望加入摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)相關指數，這也提供了上漲動力。據匯豐(HSBC)預測，到2020年，境外對中國內地股票的持有量將增加兩倍以上。這一趨勢已然開始：上週，富達(Fidelity)得到中國監管當局的許可，A股投資額度提高兩倍。More importantly for Hong Kong, last Friday China’s securities regulator said it would loosen restrictions on mainland institutions investing in Hong Kong through Stock Connect. This should funnel mainland liquidity into discounted Hong Kong shares.
對香港而言更重要的是，中國證監會上週五表示，將放鬆對內地機構通過“滬港通”投資港股的限制條件。這應當會引導內地資金購買價格較低的H股。China’s A shares are becoming more important for foreign institutional investors. Cheaper H shares look much more appealing.
對境外機構投資者而言，中國A股正變得更加重要。較便宜的H股看上去吸引力大得多。
