看好朝鮮 吉姆·羅傑斯的投資指南不適合膽小者

HONG KONG — China was an economic backwater when Jim Rogers began traveling its dusty byways more than three decades ago. Still, Mr. Rogers, a former partner of George Soros, saw its promise.

香港——三十多年前，吉姆·羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)開始在中國塵土飛揚的偏僻小路上旅行時，它還是一個閉塞落後的國家。不過，喬治·索羅斯(George Soros)的這位前合夥人看到了它的希望。

Today, Mr. Rogers, 74, doles out advice to China’s rising investor class at financial seminars, where he often draws a crowd. Part of his message involves another unloved market, where he sees promise despite authoritarian leadership and international sanctions: North Korea.

如今，74歲的羅傑斯在金融研討會上向中國不斷增長的投資階層提供建議，他經常能吸引很多觀衆。他的部分信息涉及另一個不被看好的市場：朝鮮。儘管那裏實行獨裁統治，遭到國際制裁，但他在那裏看到了希望。

“It’s very exciting. The kid has been opening up North Korea,” Mr. Rogers said in an interview, referring to Kim Jong-un, the country’s ruler.

“這非常令人興奮。這孩子一直在開放朝鮮，”羅傑斯在接受採訪時提到該國統治者金正恩(Kim Jong-un)時說。

But North Korea can be a murky place to tread — as Mr. Rogers’s experience shows.

但朝鮮可能是一個晦暗不清的地方，羅傑斯的經歷表明了這一點。

A Hong Kong company called Unaforte that is involved in several North Korean businesses named Mr. Rogers as a shareholder a year ago, according to a corporate filing. Investing in a North Korean business like that would probably violate American sanctions if it happened now, though experts say it was legal at the time.

與朝鮮幾家公司有業務聯繫的香港旺福特有限公司(Unaforte)的備案文件顯示，一年前，它將羅傑斯列爲股東。如果是現在，投資這樣一家朝鮮公司很可能違反美國的制裁規定，不過專家們認爲在當時是合法的。

Mr. Rogers said he gave Unaforte $100 as a token of good will but never expected that it would name him as a shareholder. Asked about his stake in the company in October, he interrupted an interview with The New York Times to call Unaforte and told the English-speaking sister of its founder that the company had agreed he could not be a shareholder.

羅傑斯稱，他給了旺福特100美元，作爲善意的象徵，但從沒期望成爲股東。去年10月，他在接受《紐約時報》採訪時被問及他在該公司的股份，他打斷採訪，給旺福特致電，告訴其創始人會講英語的妹妹，該公司曾同意他不能被列爲股東。

Speaking into his phone, Mr. Rogers said, “I know I have told you, ‘Never, never, never.’”

羅傑斯對着電話說，“要知道我已經告訴過你，‘絕不，絕不，絕不。’”

Unaforte no longer lists Mr. Rogers as a shareholder in its filings but will not release shareholder records that might show more details about the shares given to Mr. Rogers. Officials at Hong Kong’s corporate registry said they were investigating whether Unaforte is complying with the city’s disclosure laws. Unaforte did not respond to emailed questions for comment.

在公司申報文件中，旺福特不再將羅傑斯列爲股東，但它沒有公佈股東記錄，而那也許能顯示羅傑斯持股的更多詳情。香港公司註冊處的官員表示，他們正在調查旺福特是否遵守該市的披露法律。旺福特沒有回覆要求置評的電子郵件。

Investing in North Korea is not for the faint of heart. Many countries heavily restrict what foreign companies and investors can do there. With records in North Korea inaccessible to most outsiders, claims there cannot be easily verified. Intrepid overseas investors have little choice but to work through middle men, often based in China.

膽小的人不適合在朝鮮投資。許多國家嚴格限制外國公司和投資者在朝鮮的行爲。大部分外來者無法獲得朝鮮的相關記錄，所以其權利的主張在那裏很難得到覈實。膽大的國外投資者別無選擇，只能通過中國的中間人。

“A lot of times there are these very, very murky series of transactions that need to occur where you may not know who your partners are,” said J. R. Mailey, a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins’s U.S.-Korea Institute in Washington, who has studied fraudulent investment in North Korea.

“很多時候，在很多需要發生的非常陰暗的交易中，你可能不知道自己的商業夥伴是誰，”華盛頓約翰·霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)美韓研究所的訪問學者J·R·麥利(J. R. Mailey)說。麥利研究過朝鮮的欺詐投資案例。

Others who saw promise in North Korea have retreated. One firm that counted as an investor a high-profile North Korea bull, James Passin, ended a joint venture there in January because of tightened American sanctions.

其他曾在朝鮮看到希望的人已經撤退。今年1月，迫於美國加強制裁，一家將高調看好朝鮮的詹姆斯·帕辛(James Passin)列爲投資人的公司最終關閉了在朝鮮設立的一家合資公司。

Still, for some, the attraction can be considerable. Asia’s fast-growing economies are now well-trod ground, leaving fewer opportunities to get in early and make it big.

不過，對有些人來說，朝鮮的吸引力是巨大的。亞洲快速增長的經濟體現在都已經過深度開發，沒有留下多少早期進入並做大的機會。

“The country is like an El Dorado that lures people in,” Mr. Mailey said. “They’re willing to risk everything because the payout is so high.”

“這個國家像埃爾多拉多一樣誘惑着人們，”麥利說，“他們願意冒各種險，因爲回報豐厚。”

In interviews, Mr. Rogers said his relationship with Unaforte was distant. He said he spoke at investor events held in mainland China by Unaforte and companies controlled by its founder, Zhao Chunhui, about North Korea, among many other subjects. “I make speeches for hundreds of people,” Mr. Rogers said. He declined to disclose the amount of his speaking fees.

在採訪中，羅傑斯稱自己與旺福特關係疏遠。他說，他在旺福特及其創始人招春暉控制的多家公司在中國內地舉辦的投資活動中談到過朝鮮等很多話題。“我面向數百人發言，”羅傑斯說。他拒絕透露演講費金額。

Mr. Zhao appeared to see his relationship with Mr. Rogers differently. In Chinese-language marketing materials and on social media, Mr. Zhao called himself “Jim Rogers’s business partner in China.” A fund promoted at speaking engagements organized by Mr. Zhao or his businesses referred to Mr. Rogers as a shareholder.

招春暉似乎對自己與羅傑斯的關係有不同看法。在中文營銷材料和社交媒體上，招春暉稱自己是“吉姆·羅傑斯的中國合夥人”。招春暉或其公司組織的演講活動中推介的一個基金將羅傑斯列爲股東。

The fund and Unaforte posted photos of Mr. Rogers signing and posing with a document titled “shareholder contract” online, announcing in Chinese that Mr. Rogers had become a shareholder. One advertising banner featuring Mr. Rogers reads, “Be a shareholder along with Jim Rogers.”

該基金和旺福特在網上發佈了羅傑斯簽署一份名爲《股東合同》的文件並與其合影的照片，還以中文宣佈羅傑斯已成爲股東。一個印有羅傑斯肖像的廣告橫幅寫道：“和羅傑斯一起做股東。”

Chinese corporate records show no evidence that Mr. Rogers owns shares in the fund, called Gold Quantum.

中國的公司記錄沒有證據表明，羅傑斯持有這個名爲金量子(Gold Quantum)的基金的股份。

Then there was Unaforte’s share allocation to Mr. Rogers. The American investor said he gave Unaforte $100 as a gesture of good will. “It was a token investment once upon a time,” Mr. Rogers said.

然後就是旺福特分配給羅傑斯的股份問題。這位美國投資者稱，他給了旺福特100美元，作爲善意的表示。“它是從前的一次象徵性投資，”羅傑斯說。

Unaforte then made Mr. Rogers a shareholder. According to a Hong Kong filing, it allocated Mr. Rogers shares representing a stake of more than 1 percent in Unaforte.

旺福特從而把羅傑斯變成了股東。根據香港的一份文件，它給羅傑斯分配了逾1%的股份。

While the stake is valued at $19,000 on paper, its true value is not clear. On its website, which went offline after The Times began to ask about its businesses, Unaforte said it operated a bank and was building an office park there, and said it owned a stake in a gold mine. Outside of North Korea, the website listed a jewelry-making operation in the Chinese city of Guangzhou and in Italy, a real estate investment in Italy and retail jewelry operations in Hawaii.

雖然這些股份的紙面價值爲1.9萬美元，但它的真正價值並不清楚。旺福特在自己的網站上聲稱它在朝鮮經營一家銀行，並在修建一個辦公園區，還說它擁有一個金礦的股份。該網站聲稱，在朝鮮之外，該公司在中國廣州市和意大利經營珠寶製作業務，在意大利投資房地產，在夏威夷經營珠寶零售業務。在《紐約時報》開始詢問該公司的業務後，該網站下線。

The shares were allocated to Mr. Rogers in February 2016, one month before the American government tightened sanctions on North Korea, effectively barring its citizens from any business that might benefit the government there.

這些股票是2016年2月分配給羅傑斯的，就在美國政府加緊對朝鮮的制裁之前一個月——那些制裁嚴厲禁止美國公民經營任何可能使朝鮮政府獲利的業務。

“It’s not clear to me that anything Rogers did is illegal,” said Joshua Stanton, a Washington-based lawyer who follows United States sanctions imposed on the country and has helped draft some of them. “It would be now.”

“我不確定羅傑斯之前的行爲是否違法，”華盛頓律師喬舒亞·斯坦頓(Joshua Stanton)說。他熟悉美國對朝鮮的制裁，並幫助起草了其中一些。“但是放到現在，肯定是違法的。”

Mr. Rogers said he sent a letter to Unaforte asking that it return his $100 and take back an unspecified number of shares. It was dated March 17, 2016, a day after President Obama signed an executive order imposing new sanctions on North Korea.

羅傑斯稱，他給旺福特發了一封信，要求退還他的100美元，並收回未說明具體數字的股份。發信日期是2016年3月17日，就在奧巴馬總統簽署了對朝鮮實施新制裁的行政法令之後一天。

A copy of the letter that Mr. Rogers shared with The New York Times was stamped by Hong Kong tax authorities on Sept. 29, the day after The Times first asked Unaforte about Mr. Rogers’s stake in the company. Mr. Rogers said Unaforte told him it delayed getting the stamp because one was required only before the end of the company’s fiscal year, which was Sept. 30.

羅傑斯與《紐約時報》分享的那封信的副本上有香港稅務機關9月29日蓋的章，就在時報首次向旺福特詢問羅傑斯在該公司的持股情況之後一天。羅傑斯稱，旺福特對他說，它延遲蓋章是因爲只要在公司財政年度於9月30日結束之前蓋章即可。

Mr. Rogers, who does not read Chinese, also said he asked Mr. Zhao to remove mentions of him as a shareholder, and said companies in China and elsewhere often claim falsely to be associated with him. “We have a never-ending battle with things like this all over the world, as do others,” he said in an email.

羅傑斯不懂中文。他還表示，他曾要求招春暉刪除將他列爲股東的內容，他還說，中國和其他地方的公司經常錯誤地聲稱與他有關係。他在接受郵件採訪時說，“我們和其他人一樣，在與世界各地的此類情況進行無盡的鬥爭。”

Mr. Rogers said he was comfortable with other statements by Mr. Zhao’s companies about him. His Chinese-speaking staff members reviewed them, he said, and “my guys are extremely protective of my name.” Mr. Zhao’s companies removed some references to Mr. Rogers following inquiries.

羅傑斯表示，他對招春暉的公司對他的其他陳述感到滿意。他說，他懂中文的工作人員審查了那些陳述，“我的人非常保護我的聲譽。”招春暉的公司按要求刪除了一些提及羅傑斯的內容。

Unaforte is one of a generally quiet group of companies that use China as a jumping-off point to invest in North Korea. Such companies sometimes come under official scrutiny from the United States and China alike.

旺福特是以中國爲跳板在朝鮮投資的多家公司之一。這些總體低調的公司有時受到美國和中國的官方審視。

Its sole director is the 44-year-old Mr. Zhao, who also goes by Willam Zhao.

該公司唯一的董事是44歲的招春暉，他的英文名是威廉·招(Willam Zhao)。

Documents show Mr. Zhao is a Chinese national but also a citizen of the Dominican Republic. He has identified himself on one of his social media accounts as the chairman of First Eastern Bank, which is incorporated in the North Korean special economic zone of Rason and which Unaforte says it operates.

文件顯示招春暉是中國國民，但也是多米尼加共和國公民。他在一個社交媒體賬戶上稱自己是第一東方銀行(First Eastern Bank)的董事長，該銀行位於朝鮮羅先(Rason)經濟特區，旺福特稱該銀行在其旗下。

Mr. Zhao also has an office in Guangzhou, for the mainland-registered Unaforte company. When visited by a Times reporter last fall, that office featured a poster of Mr. Zhao arm in arm with Mr. Rogers.

招春暉在廣州也有一個辦事處，也就是在內地註冊的旺福特公司。去年秋天，時代記者造訪該辦事處時，那裏掛着招春暉和羅傑斯挽着手臂的海報。

In an interview, Mr. Rogers said he did not recall how he first met Mr. Zhao. “He seems to be doing a lot in North Korea,” Mr. Rogers said. “He says it’s profitable.”

羅傑斯在接受採訪時表示，他不記得自己最初是怎麼認識招春暉的。“他似乎在朝鮮有很多生意，”羅傑斯說，“他說很賺錢。”