投資者在巴西遭遇困境
An Olympics gives a host nation an opportunity to promote itself as an investment destination to foreign companies. Brazil’s task is more difficult than most, despite such prime assets as samba, Pelé and a market of 200m people. The performance of earlier investments resembles that of the girl from Ipanema’s attitude to admirers: indifferent.
奧運會給了主辦國一個推介自身作爲外國企業投資目的地的機會。儘管擁有桑巴、貝利(Pelé)和2億人口的市場等優質資產，但巴西的任務仍比多數主辦國更爲艱鉅。早些時候的投資的表現就像巴西歌曲《依帕內瑪姑娘》(The Girl From Ipanema)中的姑娘對傾慕者的態度：無動於衷。
Brokers, bankers and management consultants in the financial centres of the developed world like nothing better than a new land of opportunity they can promote to clients. It is a centuries-old sales wheeze that was given focus in the early noughties by Jim O’Neill’s categorisation of the most promising emerging economies as “Brics”: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
對發達國家金融中心的經紀商、銀行家和管理諮詢顧問而言，沒有什麼東西比一塊充滿機會的新大陸更容易兜售給客戶了。這種古老的銷售招數在21世紀頭10年初再次獲得了關注——吉姆•奧尼爾(Jim O'Neill)將最有希望的新興經濟體統稱爲“金磚四國”(Bric)：巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國。
The economist, then working for Goldman Sachs, never set out to trigger an investment craze. However chief executives of multinational companies were keen to buy into Brazil or expand operations there. The problems they met offer a cautionary tale for bosses contemplating any new “Next Big Thing” presented by advisers or colleagues.
當時任職於高盛(Goldman Sachs)的經濟學家奧尼爾從未想過要引發一股投資狂潮。然而跨國公司的首席執行官們熱切地在巴西進行收購，或者把業務擴展到巴西。對於正在考慮顧問或同事兜售的新的“下一件大事”的老闆們，他們遇到的問題提出了警示。
World Bank figures suggest annual foreign direct investment in Brazil fell only by a quarter to $75bn between 2011 and 2015. That is despite an economic crisis manifested in a halving of the dollar value of the Brazilian real over the period and a 3.8 per cent contraction in output in 2015.
世界銀行(World Bank)的數據表明，在2011年到2015年間，對巴西的年度外國直接投資(FDI)僅下降四分之一，至750億美元。儘管在此期間，一場經濟危機讓巴西雷亞爾的美元價值折半，並使該國2015年經濟產出收縮3.8%。
Doubters mutter that official FDI numbers may be skewed by deposits shunted into Brazilian bank accounts by treasurers of multinationals hungry for interest rates of more than 14 per cent. A more revealing measure is that manufacturing greenfield investment fell from $25bn in 2010 to $2bn in 2015, says fDi Intelligence, an FT division. Statistics from data group Dealogic show the value of inbound takeovers fell from $68bn to $22bn over the same period.
持懷疑態度的人嘀咕，官方的FDI數據可能扭曲了，原因是跨國公司的財務主管因爲渴求逾14%的利率而把存款轉入巴西銀行賬戶。英國《金融時報》旗下部門fDi Intelligence表示，一個更能說明情況的衡量指標是，對巴西製造業的綠地項目投資從2010年的250億美元跌至2015年的20億美元。數據提供商Dealogic的統計表明，同期對巴西的收購交易價值從680億美元下滑至220億美元。
Last week, the international press ran stories on Rio’s supposedly poor state of preparedness for the games. Their business pages meanwhile reported that HSBC, the world’s seventh-largest bank, would channel some cash from the recent sale of its lossmaking Brazilian wing into a $2.5bn share buyback.
前段時間，國際媒體針對里約對奧運會糟糕的籌備情況進行了大肆報道。它們的商業版面同時報道了全球第7大銀行匯豐(HSBC)將把最近出售虧損的巴西業務所得的一部分用於25億美元的股票回購。
HSBC went into the Brazilian market in 1997. Its withdrawal was part of a broader effort to focus on core markets, particularly in Asia. But HSBC Brasil was also lossmaking. Citigroup, shrinking to fit like HSBC, has meanwhile put its Brazilian retail banking unit up for sale.
匯豐1997年進入了巴西市場。該行的退出是專注於核心市場（尤其是在亞洲）的整體努力的一部分。但匯豐巴西此前確實在虧損。花旗集團(Citigroup)也效仿匯豐進行“瘦身”，宣佈有意出售其巴西零售銀行業務。
The going has been tough elsewhere, too. Experian, the world’s biggest credit checking agency, has had a series of difficulties with Serasa, the large Brazilian counterpart it bought for $2.7bn via transactions in 2007 and 2012. Helpful credit checking regulation was watered down. Street protests disrupted trading. Recently, banks threatened to set up a rival agency. The biggest problem has been the translational impact of a falling local currency on sales and profits, which Experian reports at a group level in dollars. It has been a similar story for Diageo. The UK-based drinks giant acquired Ypióca, a maker of cachaça, a traditional Brazilian tipple, for $450m in 2012. Sales crashed 28 per cent in 2015/16. The damage was a more modest 6 per cent in constant currencies. But the ratio of 20 times earnings Diageo is thought to have paid for Ypióca now looks steep. Diageo and Experian regard their Brazilian offshoots as long-term bets on a country with a big consumer base and growing middle class.
別處的境況也變得困難起來。世界最大的徵信機構益博睿(Experian)在2007年和2012年分兩次共斥資27億美元收購的大型巴西征信機構Serasa讓其遭遇了一系列困難。有幫助的信用調查法規遭到削弱。街頭抗議擾亂了業務。最近，一些銀行威脅要設立一家與之競爭的徵信機構。最大的難題是巴西貨幣的貶值對益博睿銷售和利潤的影響，益博睿在集團層面上將這些數據換算成美元進行報告。總部位於英國的飲品巨頭帝亞吉歐(Diageo)也有相似的遭遇。帝亞吉歐2012年斥資4.5億美元收購了巴西傳統烈酒卡沙夏（或稱巴西甘蔗酒））製造商Ypióca。在2015-16年度，Ypióca的銷售下滑28%。按恆定貨幣價值計算，銷售降幅爲較小的6%。但帝亞吉歐當年據信以20倍盈利的價格買下Ypióca，現在看來過高了。帝亞吉歐和益博睿都把它們的巴西業務看作對一個擁有龐大消費羣和不斷壯大的中產階層的國家的長期押注。
HSBC and Citi were poorly positioned in the areas of banking from which they are withdrawing, according to Alessandra Ribeiro, head of macroeconomic and political analysis at Tendencias, a São Paulo consultancy. By contrast, Santander Brasil has a strong market position and was an underbidder for the unit HSBC sold to Bradesco. Ms Ribeiro forecasts Brazil’s growth will rise to 1.2 per cent next year and 2.3 per cent in 2018 before reaching a long-term trend rate of about 3 per cent. That would be a relief for inward investors. But healthier growth depends on political stability and economic reform. These can hardly be relied on given the extraordinary events of recent times, which have left president Dilma Rousseff suspended from office pending impeachment proceedings.
聖保羅諮詢公司Tendencias宏觀經濟和政治分析主管亞歷山德拉•裏貝羅(Alessandra Ribeiro)表示，匯豐和花旗在它們退出的銀行業定位糟糕。相比之下，桑坦德巴西(Santander Brasil)擁有強有力的市場地位，該行是匯豐出售給Bradesco的巴西業務的低價投標者。裏貝羅預測，巴西的經濟增長率將在明年升至1.2%，2018年升至2.3%，最終達到約3%的長期趨勢增長率。這會讓投資巴西的外來投資者鬆一口氣。但更健康的增長需要政治穩定和經濟改革。考慮到巴西近期發生的非常事態——巴西總統迪爾瑪•羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)遭暫時停職，等候彈劾程序——這一點很難指望。
As things stand, Brazil has been the Bric that has underperformed as reliably as its sports people until recently excelled. Its share of world GDP has slipped back since 2011 while China’s has surged. FDI specialists are promoting India as the Next Big Thing. Bosses should consider the travails of investors in Brazil and beware. In business, as at the Olympics, runners-up receive no gold medals.
照目前情況看來，巴西是金磚國家中的落後者這一點是沒有懸念的，就像該國運動員在直到不久以前還表現優秀一樣。自2011年以來，巴西在世界國內生產總值(GDP)中的比例下滑，而中國的比例則大幅上升。FDI專家們現在將印度作爲“下一件大事”進行宣傳。老闆們應該考慮一下投資者在巴西遭遇的困境並小心提防。在奧運會上，第二名得不到金牌，在商界也是如此。
