銅價因中國信貸刺激政策強勁反彈
This year’s comModities slouch is playing catch up.
今年以來表現一直低迷的大宗商品正出現起色。
Copper has suddenly burst into life, surging 14 per cent this month to above $5,500 a tonne as investors pick apart widely held assumptions about the underlying dynamic for a metal used in everything from wiring to power grids.
本月，由於投資者不再相信之前關於銅的潛在走勢的普遍假設，銅突然迸發活力，飆升14%至每噸5500美元上方。銅被用於從線纜到電網的極爲廣泛的用途。
The concern over a wall of supply from projects commissioned in the aftermath of the financial crisis is fading just as more optimistic views on demand in China and the US emerge.
對金融危機後上馬項目的巨大供應的擔憂正在消退，人們開始看好中美的需求。
Even Goldman Sachs — the most consistently negative voice on copper over the past couple of years — has turned more positive, conceding the 23m-tonne-a-year market will be broadly balanced this year.
甚至過去兩年內對銅發表最堅定負面看法的高盛(Goldman Sachs)也變得更爲樂觀，承認這個每年2300萬噸的市場今年將大致達到平衡。
Others are more bullish, forecasting deficits of up to 400,000 tonnes in 2017 if Chinese demand holds up.
還有人則更爲樂觀，預計如果中國需求保持堅挺的話，2017年供應缺口高達40萬噸。
If prices can stay above $5,500, or march higher, that will be a huge boost to miners such as Anglo American, Glencore and Freeport-McMoRan, helping them generate extra cash to pay down debts and eventually restart dividend payments.
如果銅價能夠保持在5500美元上方或者更高，會對英美資源集團(Anglo American)、嘉能可(Glencore)和自由港邁克墨倫(Freeport-McMoRan)等礦業公司產生極大提振，幫助它們產生額外現金償還債務，並最終重啓分紅。
“The pick-up in Chinese demand has left the market tighter than we previously expected,” Goldman said.
高盛表示：“中國需求上升讓市場供應比我們早先預期的更爲緊張。”
Until this month copper had been a laggard, climbing only 5 per cent compared with a 55 per cent surge for zinc and 17 per cent rise for aluminium. While many have attempted to pin copper’s recent bounce on the hazy infrastructure plans of US president-elect Donald Trump, sentiment had already started to shift before the US elections.
就在本月前，銅的表現還落後於其他金屬，僅僅上漲了5%，而鋅和鋁分別上漲了55%和17%。儘管許多人試圖將銅最近的反彈歸因於美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)提出的模糊的基礎設施計劃，但在美國大選前，市場情緒已經開始轉變。
One reason is China, where demand has been running at a much faster pace than expected this year, thanks to Beijing, which has been stimulating the economy with credit.
一個原因是中國——由於中國政府一直通過信貸刺激經濟，中國今年的需求增長速度遠超預期。
Another concerns supply. During the first half of the year there were few problems at major deposits. That changed abruptly during the third quarter, when several of the world’s biggest copper miners including BHP Billiton and Freeport reported weak results and cut production guidance for 2017.
另一個原因是供應方面的擔憂。在今年上半年，主要礦山幾乎沒什麼問題。但在第三季度情況突然發生變化，當時包括必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和自由港在內的多個全球最大的銅礦發佈了疲弱的業績報告，並削減了2017年的產量指引。
Copper is a difficult commodity to produce, and for that reason, analysts normally price in a 4 to 5 per cent loss of mining output each year due to disruptions. Until September, outages had run well below that level, amplifying angst about a glut of supply.
銅是一種很難生產的大宗商品，因此分析師通常會考慮每年因生產中斷造成4%-5%的產量損失。截至今年9月前，產量損失遠低於這一預計水平，加劇了對供大於求的擔憂。
That has now changed, and there are an increasing number of signals indicating a tightening copper market. Inventories of refined metal held in London Metal Exchange warehouses have fallen 36 per cent since the end of September, and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks have also come down.
現在這種情況有所改變，越來越多的跡象顯示銅市場供應趨緊。倫敦金屬交易所(LME)的精煉銅庫存自9月底以來下降36%，上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)的銅庫存也下降了。
There has also been a surprise drop in the fees charged by smelters and refiners to process dry feedstock, or copper concentrate as it is known, into anodes and eventually cathodes.
冶煉商和精煉商將幹原料（即銅精礦）加工爲陽極銅、以及最終加工爲陰極銅收取的費用也令人意外地出現了下降。
When treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) fall, it is a sign material is insufficient in this part of the copper supply chain.
當銅精礦的粗煉和精煉費用(TC/RC)下降的時候，就表明在銅供應鏈這個部分的原料不足。
In recent years the annual negotiations between Freeport and China’s Jiangxi Copper have served as a benchmark for the rest of the market. Most analysts were expecting fees to rise this year, but they actually fell with the two sides agreeing terms of $92.50 per tonne and 9.25 cents per pound.
在最近幾年，自由港與中國江西銅業(Jiangxi Copper)的年度談判已成爲市場其他從業者的基準。大多數分析師之前預計今年費用將會上漲，但價格實際上下降了，雙方同意的價格爲粗煉費每噸92.50美元和精煉費每磅9.25美分。
“The concentrate market is not as oversupplied as people think,” says one senior copper trader.
一位高級銅交易員表示：“銅精礦市場並非像人們認爲的那樣供應過剩。”
For traders and mining executives, falling stocks and TC/RCs jar with the narrative of oversupply peddled by some of the big investment banks and metals consultancies.
對交易員和礦業高管來說，庫存和粗煉及精煉費用下降，與一些大型投行和金屬諮詢公司宣揚的供應過剩說法不符。
They say the peak of copper mine supply growth is behind the industry. One executive told the Financial Times he expected increases from eight major mines of 290,000 tonnes to be offset by declines of 400,000 next year.
他們說，銅礦供應增長的頂峯還未到來。一位高管向英國《金融時報》表示，他預計8家主要礦商29萬噸的產量增長將被明年40萬噸的產量下降抵消。
While output will pick up in 2018 and 2019, there are few big projects poised to come on stream. This is because miners have cut spending on exploration and new projects during the five-year downturn in commodity markets.
儘管產量將在2018年和2019年回升，但未來很少有大型項目準備投產。這是因爲礦商在大宗商品市場5年低迷期間削減了勘探和新項目上的支出。
On the demand side, the impact on copper from the Trump White House is not yet clear. Even if there is a big infrastructure-led stimulus push, it is unlikely to materialise in the physical copper market until 2018, although investors may start taking positions before then.
在需求方面，特朗普入主白宮對銅的影響還不明朗。即便有基礎設施主導的大型刺激方案，在2018年前也不太可能影響到現貨銅市場，儘管投資者可能在此之前開始建立頭寸。
Analysts at UBS estimate a 10 per cent lift in US demand for copper would see its global share rise to 9 per cent, equating to 180,000 tonnes per annum of additional demand. That is only equivalent to a 1.5 per cent move in China.
瑞銀(UBS)分析師估計，美國對銅的需求上升10%將會讓其在全球需求中的份額升至9%，相當於每年額外增加需求18萬噸。這只是相當於中國需求上升1.5%。
Ultimately it will be Chinese demand that will be the biggest influence on the copper price. And here there are reasons for optimism. At the Asia Copper Week conference in Shanghai earlier this month, the mood among delegates was better than it had been for several years, according to analysts.
最終，中國需求將是銅價的最大影響因素。這方面人們有理由樂觀。分析師們表示，在本月早些時候於上海召開的“亞洲銅業周”(Asia Copper Week)會議上，參會代表們的情緒比過去幾年樂觀。
“Overall sentiment was solid, with most Chinese players . . . expecting good demand for next year (3-5 per cent) on sustained government stimulus policies,” said Macquarie analysts.
麥格理(Macquarie)分析師表示：“整體情緒穩固，大多數中國從業者……預計在持續的政府刺激政策下，明年需求強勁（增長3%-5%）。”
