中國信貸擴張催生投資泡沫 雞蛋期價飆升

HONG KONG — China is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into its economy in a new effort to support growth. Some of it is going into roads and bridges and other big projects that will keep the economy humming.

香港——中國新採取的保增長舉措，是向經濟領域注入數以千億美元計的資金。一些資金正在流向會讓經濟保持發展勢頭的路橋建設等大型項目。

And some of it is going into eggs.

還有一些正在流向雞蛋。

China’s latest lending deluge has sent money sloshing into unexpected parts of the economy. That includes a financial market in Dalian where investors can place bets on the future productivity of the country’s hens.

中國的最新一輪信貸擴張，已經讓資金進入某些出人意料的經濟領域。其中包括大連的一個金融市場，在那裏，投資者可以押注於中國母雞未來的生產力。

Egg futures have surged by as much as one-third since March, the sort of move that would be justified if investors believed China’s chicken flocks were headed for an unfortunate fate.

自三月以來，雞蛋期價已經飆升了三分之一。而只有投資者認爲中國的雞羣即將遭遇災難，這種漲幅才稱得上合理。

But the market’s usual participants say the flocks are fine. In fact, the actual price of eggs in the country’s markets has fallen from a year ago, according to government statistics.

但該市場的資深參與者表示，雞羣的情況還不錯。事實上，中國政府的統計數據顯示，與一年前相比，該國雞蛋的實際市場價已經有所下降。

The reason for the unusual jump in egg futures, they say, is China’s tendency to experience investment bubbles when the government steps up spending and lending. China’s previous efforts to bolster growth unexpectedly sent money into real estate and the stock market — markets that had unexplained rises followed by striking drops.

他們說，雞蛋期價之所以出現不同尋常的飆升，是因爲當中國政府擴大支出、放鬆信貸時，常常會催生投資泡沫。中國此前的保增長舉措曾讓資金出人意料地流進房地產和股票市場，致使二者毫無道理地上漲，隨後又遭遇大跌。

“Many commodities prices have gone up crazily,” said Du Shaoxing, a futures trader in Guangzhou, in southern China. “We surely hope for a more stabilized trend where futures can reflect economic fundamentals. The way in which recent commodity prices went up is worrisome.”

“很多大宗商品的價格都瘋狂上漲，”中國南方城市廣州的期貨交易員杜紹興（音）說。“我們肯定希望其走勢更加穩定，從而可以反映中國經濟的基本面。大宗商品價格最近的這種漲法令人擔憂。”

China’s latest bubble illustrates the potential risks of its newest effort to spur growth. The Chinese economy is already burdened with too much debt, economists say. And sometimes, stopgap measures to help the economy create long-term problems.

中國新涌現的投資泡沫，反映出刺激經濟增長的最新舉措所具有的潛在風險。經濟學家稱，中國經濟已經揹負了太多債務負擔。有時候，一些權宜之計會導致經濟領域產生長期問題。

China is the world’s biggest producer of eggs, but it is not clear whether the investment surge in eggs will have an impact on real-world prices. Jumps in the futures prices on commodities markets can take months to trickle down to the real world, and if the commodities surge subsides, then the price of eggs in local markets may not budge.

中國是世界上最大的雞蛋生產國，但目前尚不清楚雞蛋期價飆升是否會對實際市場價產生影響。在大宗商品市場上，期價可能要經過好幾個月時間纔會傳導到現實世界，而且如果大宗商品價格飆升熱潮消退，當地市場的雞蛋價格也許不會出現變化。

Eggs are not the only commodity suddenly out of kilter. Domestic prices and trading volumes on steel, garlic, cotton, iron ore and other items have all soared. This despite the fact that China’s economic slowdown has hurt demand for many items. Officials at Chinese commodities markets are now taking steps to cool speculative fervor to avoid crashes, and prices have begun to ease.

雞蛋並非唯一一種突然進入非常態的大宗商品。鋼材、大蒜、棉花、鐵礦石等交易品種的國內價格和交易量都大幅飆升。這種局面是在中國經濟增長放緩導致多種商品的需求有所下降的情況下出現的。爲避免崩盤，中國主管大宗商品市場的官員正想方設法給投機狂潮降溫，目前價格已經趨於穩定。

By mid-April, the frenzy made Shanghai futures contracts in steel rebar, the rods used in construction to reinforce concrete, the most actively traded in the world — overtaking trading volumes of two major oil futures contracts, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude, that have helped set oil prices for decades, analysts at Citigroup said in a report last week.

花旗集團(Citigroup)分析師在上週的一份報告中稱，截至4月中旬，這種狂潮讓上海期貨交易所的螺紋鋼期貨合約交易量超過了美國西德克薩斯中質原油（West Texas Intermediate，簡稱WTI）和布蘭特原油(Brent)期貨合約交易量，使其成爲了全球最活躍的期貨交易品種。螺紋鋼是建築業中用於加固混凝土的鋼筋條，而西德克薩斯中質原油和布蘭特原油這兩大原油期貨合約，數十年來一直在影響原油的定價。

“There is very little rational or fundamental basis for why prices have gotten as out of hand as they have, or why volumes are so high, other than just irrational exuberance,” said Alex Wolf, an emerging markets economist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, who previously worked as an American diplomat based in Beijing and Taipei.

“價格如此失控，交易量如此之大，卻沒有什麼合理的依據或基本面支撐，只能說這是非理性繁榮的結果，”愛丁堡標準人壽投資公司(Standard Life Investments)致力於新興市場研究的經濟學家亞歷克斯·沃爾夫(Alex Wolf)說。沃爾夫曾任美國駐北京和臺北的外交官。

Economists blame Beijing’s new efforts to shore up its economy. Government officials increased lending by state-controlled banks and offered other support measures in the first few months of the year as economic growth slowed and longtime drivers like manufacturing and exports showed continued weakness.

經濟學家對中國振興經濟的新舉措提出了批評。今年前幾個月，在經濟增長有所放緩，製造業、出口等長期以來的經濟驅動器持續呈現疲軟態勢之際，政府官員通過國有銀行擴大了信貸規模，並採取了其他一些支持性措施。

Saad Rahim, the chief economist at Trafigura, one of the world’s biggest traders of metals and oil, calculates that China added about $1 trillion in new liquidity in the first quarter of the year — an amount that would be roughly equal to the entire quarterly economic output of Germany during the same period.

據全球最大的石油和金屬貿易商之一托克集團(Trafigura)的首席經濟學家薩阿德·拉希姆(Saad Rahim)估計，中國在今年第一季度新增了大約1萬億美元的流動性——該數額基本相當於德國當季的經濟總產出。

“This kind of scale is unprecedented and some of it will leak into speculative investments,” Mr. Rahim said.

“這種規模是史無前例的，其中一部分會進入投機性投資領域，”拉希姆說。

In the short term, the new lending may be good news for global growth, if it works. China’s first-quarter growth came in at 6.7 percent, about where economists had expected, despite some indications that growth had weakened further.

從短期來看，這部分新增貸款如果能發揮作用，對全球經濟增長而言或許是好消息。中國第一季度的經濟增長率是6.7%，基本符合經濟學家此前的預期，儘管有跡象顯示，經濟增速已經進一步放緩。

But in turning to its old playbook, China risks adding to its already fast-growing pile of debt, which by some estimates is nearly 300 percent of gross domestic product.

中國在重演故伎之時，冒着讓快速增長的債務負擔變得更加沉重的風險。據估計，該國總債務佔GDP的比重已經接近300%。

The problems are most acute when it comes to China’s corporate borrowers, which have gorged on cheap credit in the years since the global financial crisis. In a report released in April, the International Monetary Fund found that nearly 600 companies had almost $400 billion of debt that was considered at risk, accounting for 14 percent of total corporate borrowing in China.

問題最嚴重的是中國的企業借款人，在全球金融危機爆發以來的許多年裏，它們獲得了大量廉價信貸資金。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)今年4月發佈的一份報告顯示，發放給近600家企業的大約4000億美元信貸資金被認爲存在風險，佔中國企業借款總額的14%。

But the renewed push for credit-fueled growth shows that policy makers’ concerns about China’s debt burden appear to have been set aside for now. By delaying efforts to wean itself off cheap credit, China may be setting itself up for some problems related to debt and industrial overcapacity.

但重新推出的以信貸推動經濟增長的舉措表明，中國的政策制定者目前似乎已經把對債務負擔的擔憂放在了一邊。通過緩行旨在減少對廉價信貸資金的依賴的一些措施，中國或許正在爲自己製造某些與債務和工業產能過剩有關的問題。

There are few places for China’s money to go. The country has tightened already stringent limits on how much money its people can send or invest abroad. Its stock market is still recovering from a crash last year. And its property market remains saddled with a glut of apartments in many cities.

中國的資金沒有太多去處。當局已經近一步收緊了對中國人向海外匯款或進行海外投資的限制。去年崩盤的中國股票市場目前還在恢復當中。此外，很多城市裏過剩的公寓樓仍舊仍舊在拖累中國房地產市場。

A property market bubble arose from the huge stimulus that Beijing deployed after the 2008 financial crisis, which set off a building boom.

在2008年的金融危機爆發後，北京推行的大規模經濟刺激措施掀起了一輪建設熱潮，催生出了房地產泡沫。

Stocks overtook property in investor interest last year. A raging bull market that was cheered on by official news outlets like People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s newspaper, skidded to a halt in June.

去年，股票接替房地產成爲投資者的新寵。一波兇猛的大牛市在共產黨喉舌《人民日報》等官方媒體加油打氣之下應運而生，但卻在去年6月戛然而止。

As for eggs, Chen Jie, who works in the futures department at Hubei Shendan Healthy Food, the biggest egg company in China, said in a phone interview that “there is definitely speculative capital in the market.”

至於雞蛋，中國最大蛋產品企業湖北神丹健康食品有限公司期貨部門的陳杰（音）接受電話採訪時說，“這一市場上肯定存在投機性資本。”

Her company supplies eggs to KFC and McDonald’s restaurants, and sells them at more than 10,000 supermarkets across China, including those of chains like Walmart, Carrefour and Metro.

她所在的公司是肯德基(KFC)和麥當勞(McDonald)餐廳的雞蛋供應商，還把雞蛋銷往中國各地超過1萬家超市，其中包括沃爾瑪(Walmart)、家樂福(Carrefour)、麥德龍(Metro)等連鎖超市。

Hubei Shendan uses the futures market to hedge its bets against swings in actual egg prices. An abnormally volatile futures market makes that job more difficult.

湖北神丹利用期貨市場來對衝雞蛋現貨價格波動帶來的風險。期貨市場出現異常波動，讓他們的工作變得更困難了。

“The reason we are in the egg futures market is because the big swings in egg prices will affect our profitability, and a good futures market will help us in that regard,” Ms. Chen said.

“我們之所以進入雞蛋期貨市場，是因爲波幅巨大的雞蛋現貨價格會影響我們的盈利能力，一個好的期貨市場在這方面會對我們有所幫助，”陳杰說。