中國微刺激政策顯成效 或推更多措施

China's May economic data brought some pleasant surprises, with the government's 'mini-stimulus' measures credited with producing a Modest turnaround after the sluggish start to the year.

中國5月份的經濟數據給市場帶來一些意外驚喜，因爲政府的微刺激政策促使經濟在年初開局不利後略有起色。

Many analysts said the data show signs the economy is stabilizing, but others said there's trouble ahead and that more support for the economy - on top of the stepped-up tax breaks and railway spending already announced - will be needed. The biggest risk to Growth is the sagging property sector.

許多分析師們表示，數據顯示出經濟正在企穩的跡象，但是其他人則認爲未來還有麻煩，需要出臺更多經濟扶持政策，而之前政府已經加大了對小微企業的稅收扶持力度並宣佈了鐵路投資項目。中國經濟增長面臨的最大風險就是房地產行業滑坡。

'The worst is not over, we believe,' Standard Chartered economists wrote in a note to clients. 'We maintain our call that actual activity growth is likely to slow further in the third quarter.'

渣打集團(Standard Chartered)經濟學家在研究報告中表示，他們認爲最糟糕的時期尚未過去。他們依舊認爲實際的經濟活動可能在第三季度進一步放緩。

China's industrial output grew 8.8% year over year in May, up slightly from 8.7% in April. Growth in electricity output also gathered pace, rising 5.9% year over year after a 4.4% gain in April. Nominal retail sales were stronger, and there was an uptick in the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index.

中國5月份工業增加值同比增長了8.8%，增幅略微高於4月份的8.7%。發電量增幅也擴大，由4月份的4.4%增加至5.9%。名義零售額增幅擴大，此外官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)也上升。

Barclays -0.92% economists wrote they were raising their second quarter growth forecast to 7.4% - from 7.2% previously - noting 'upside risk' to their full-year prediction of 7.2% growth. Meanwhile, Nomura raised its economic growth forecast for the year to 7.5% - in line with the government's target - from an initial forecast of 7.4%.

巴克萊(Barclays)的經濟學家寫道，他們把中國第二季度經濟增長率預期由之前的7.2%調高至7.4%，並稱他們的全年增長率預期7.2%有上調的可能性。此外野村把中國今年的經濟增長率預期由最初預計的7.4%調高至7.5%，與政府的目標一致。

China's saw first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 7.4% year on year, down from 7.7% in the last quarter of 2013.

中國第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長了7.4%，增幅低於2013年第四季度的7.7%。

'The slight improvement in the activity data in May was mainly due to the mini-stimulus,' Lu Ting, economist at bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note to clients. 'We expect Beijing to roll out more targeted measures in the coming months.'

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)經濟學家陸挺在研究報告中表示，5月份經濟活動數據略微改善，主要受惠於微刺激政策。他還表示，他們預計中國政府未來幾個月將推出更多有針對性的措施。

Barclays noted that the 'Li Keqiang Index' - a set of indicators the Chinese premier reportedly thinks give a truer picture of the economy than GDP - also suggests growth bottomed in March and is improving now. The index tracks new loans, electricity production and railway cargo.

巴克萊指出，“李克強指數”（據報道是中國總理李克強認爲比GDP更能真實反映經濟狀況的一系列指標）也表明經濟增長狀況已經在3月份見底，現在正在改善。該指數追蹤新增貸款、發電量和鐵路貨運量。

In addition to the rail spending and tax breaks, Beijing has warned local governments to spend money that has been allocated for approved projects - or risk losing it.

除了鐵路投資和稅收優惠外，北京方面還警告地方政府把撥給已批項目的經費花出去，否則可能收回預算。

Local governments 'must speed up spending on infrastructure construction projects and make spending materialize as soon as possible,' the Finance Ministry said last month.

財政部上個月稱，地方政府必須加快基建工程及其資金進度。

Government spending was up 24.6% in May from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said. In April, fiscal spending rose 1.1% from a year ago, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on official data.

財政部稱，5月份政府支出較上年同期增長了24.6%。據《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)根據官方數據計算，4月份財政支出同比增長了1.1%。

The central bank also has told some banks they could lend more of their deposits, letting city commercial banks and rural financial institutions hold less of their deposits in reserve. The move pointedly omitted the big five banks.

中國央行也告訴一些銀行，它們可以把更多存款用於放貸――央行下調了城市商業銀行和農村金融機構的存款準備金率。這一舉措刻意地遺漏了五大銀行。

On Monday, Industrial Bank and China Minsheng Bank - both among China's top 10 financial institutions - said they had been approved for a cut in their reserve requirement, signaling that more than just the smallest financial institutions have been included in the easing measure.

週一，均在中國前十大金融機構之列的興業銀行(Industrial Bank)和民生銀行(China Minsheng Bank)雙雙表示，它們獲准下調了存準率，這表明寬鬆措施覆蓋的不只是最小的那些金融機構。

'They've done quite a lot so far,' said Tim Condon, economist at ING, referring to government measures to boost the economy.

荷蘭國際集團(ING)經濟學家康登(Tim Condon)談論政府提振經濟的舉措道，他們迄今爲止已經做了許多。

He called it 'very encouraging' that Beijing seems to have averted a more pronounced slowdown in economic growth. But that can't be said for the property sector, which he described as in 'a pretty cold shower.'

他說北京似乎已經避免了經濟增長出現更大幅度的放緩，稱這非常鼓舞人心。但對於房地產業卻不能這麼說，他稱房地產業洗了一個冷水浴。

Analysts suggest that more loosening measures may be aimed at this key sector, which is an important driver of growth and accounts for 16%-25% of GDP if related industries like steel and cement are included in the tally.

分析人士表示，政府可能針對這一重要行業採取更多的放鬆措施。房地產業是經濟增長的重要推動力，如果將鋼鐵和水泥等相關產業都計算在內的話，房地產業佔GDP的16%至25%。

China currently is seeing a correction in its housing market, which is plagued by excess supply in many cities outside Beijing and Shanghai, and tighter credit.

中國的樓市目前正在進行調整，並且面臨信貸收緊。北京和上海以外的很多城市都存在供應過剩的問題。

Property sales were down 7.8% year over year in May, after falling 6.9% in April. That dragged fixed asset investment down on the month: It grew 17.2% over a year ago, its slowest gain since January 2002 and down from 17.3% in April.

5月份房屋銷售面積較上年同期降7.8%，4月份降6.9%。房屋銷售下滑拖累了當月固定資產投資：5月份固定資產投資較上年同期增長17.2%，爲2002年1月以來的最低增幅，低於4月份的17.3%。

The central bank already has told commercial banks to make funds available for mortgage lending.

中國央行已經要求商業銀行爲抵押貸款投放提供資金。

Local governments also have started to relax some of the curbs on purchases of multiple homes imposed as part of an effort to keep prices from spiraling higher. The city of Shenyang in the northeast quietly told real-estate agencies that it will not enforce curbs on home purchases in certain parts of the city - though officials have been shy about formally confirming their stance.

地方政府也開始放寬對購置多套房的部分限制措施，限購措施是防止房價飆升的努力的一部分。瀋陽市悄悄告訴房地產中介，將不會對該市部分地區的購房實施限制，不過官員們一直不願正式證實他們的立場。

'Moderation in property investment will remain as the major threat to the country's recovery,' said Zhang Fan, economist at CIMB Securities. Otherwise, he said, the economy appears to be stabilizing.

聯昌國際證券(CIMB)經濟學家張帆表示，房地產投資的放緩將依然是中國復甦面臨的主要威脅。他說，除此之外，經濟似乎正在企穩。

'We expect more local governments will soften their restrictions for the property sector,' he said.

他說：“我們預計更多地方政府將放鬆對房地產業的限制。”