特朗普豪賭只會損害美臺企業利益
DonAld Trump reckons himself a master of the high-stakes gamble.
唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)自認爲是高風險賭博方面的高手。
Over the weekend, the US president-elect questioned whether his administration would respect the One China policy, by which the US acknowledges just one legitimate Chinese government.
上週末，這位美國當選總統質疑，他領導的美國政府是否還要繼續遵守一箇中國政策，即美國只承認一個合法的中國政府。
This prompted a robust response from Beijing.
這激起了北京方面的強硬迴應。
Any spat risks hurting Taiwan businesses — and US interests as badly.
中美間的任何齟齬都可能嚴重傷害臺灣企業以及美國的利益。
Until Mr Trump’s victory in November, China’s government was accepted as the one that rules on the mainland.
直至特朗普今年11月勝選，美方一直承認的是統治中國大陸的中國政府。
Earlier this Month the president-elect broke with protocol by accepting a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan.
本月早些時候，特朗普打破慣例，接聽了臺灣總統蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)打來的電話。
On that occasion, China reacted with restraint, protesting directly to Washington.
那時，中方作出了剋制的迴應，直接向華盛頓表示抗議。
Like Mr Trump’s posturing, Beijing’s reaction has escalated.
與特朗普的再次表態一樣，北京這一次的反應也已經升級。
On Monday, China hit back, its foreign ministry denouncing Trump’s comments.
週一，中方進行了回擊，中國外交部譴責了特朗普的言論。
US dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing runs deep.
美國對臺灣製造業的依賴程度很深。
Over the years, as technology companies such as Intel and Dell have invested less in production, they have outsourced to Taiwanese manufacturers.
多年來，由於英特爾(Intel)、戴爾(Dell)等科技公司在生產方面的投資減少，它們已將生產外包給臺灣製造商。
Nor does their dependence stop at Taiwan’s shores.
然而，美國企業依賴的不止是臺灣。
As relations between China and its renegade province have thawed, Taiwanese companies’ mainland-based facilities have grown.
由於中國大陸與其叛離省份的關係已經解凍，臺灣企業在中國大陸設立的工廠不斷增多。
As a result Apple, dependent on the semiconductor maker TSMC and manufacturer Foxconn (listed in Taiwan as Hon Hai), relies on mainland China too.
結果是，依賴半導體制造商臺積電(TSMC)和代工製造商富士康（Foxconn，在臺灣上市名稱爲鴻海(Hon Hai)）的蘋果公司(Apple)也要依靠中國大陸。
At end of 2015 three quarters of Foxconn’s fixed assets were across the straits.
截至2015年底，富士康四分之三的固定資產都位於中國大陸。
Disrupting these operations would not be hard for China.
干擾這些企業對於中國大陸並不難。
Failing that, its government is a past master at mobilising public opinion against foreign companies, for misdeeds real or perceived.
即使不走這條路，煽動輿論反對外資企業——無論這些企業是真的行爲不端，還是被這麼認爲——也是中國大陸政府所擅長的。
It is an unwise man who provokes such mobilisation.
只有不明智的人才會刺激這種煽動行爲。
Perhaps Mr Trump believes Taiwan is expendable in his get-tough stance on China.
或許特朗普認爲在他對中國的強硬立場中，臺灣是可以犧牲的。
Alternatively, he may think disrupting companies such as Foxconn will bring manufacturing home.
又或者，他可能認爲干擾富士康等企業就可以將製造業帶回美國。
In this game of chicken between China and Mr Trump, it is US companies that risk being run over.
在中國與特朗普之間這場懦夫博弈中，被坑的可能是美國企業。
