中國股市之雙城記:上海,深圳冰火兩重天

Chinese equity markets are displaying echoes of Dickens as investors in mainland stocks are experiencing the best of times and the worst of times.

中國股市令人想起狄更斯(Charles Dickens)的作品。內地股票投資者既經歷着最好的時代，又經歷着最壞的時代。

This tale of two cities plays out between Shenzhen, whose composite index is Asia’s new star performer, and Shanghai, the better known and more established of China’s mainland markets.

這出“雙城記”在深圳和上海之間展開。深證綜指(Shenzhen Composite)現在的表現使之成爲亞洲股市新的明星股指，而上海股市則是內地更知名、更成熟的股票市場。

Following the recent rout in global emerging markets, the Shenzhen composite – home to China’s small-caps index – is up 13.8 per cent this year, outpacing gains in the next best Asian market, the Philippines.

在全球新興市場近期暴跌之後，深證綜指今年迄今上漲13.8%，增幅高於亞洲表現第二佳的市場——菲律賓。深市也是中國中小板指數的誕生地。

The move is not a reflection of new-found confidence in China. The Shanghai Composite remains Asia’s most unloved index, having fallen 8.6 per cent this year, partly due to the perception that it is a proxy for China’s old economy.

這種變化並不意味着投資者對中國重拾信心。上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)仍是亞洲最不受歡迎的股指，今年已下跌8.6%，這在一定程度上是因爲人們將它視爲中國舊經濟的代表。

Financials, energy and materials companies account for about 70 per cent of the Shanghai market, mostly state-owned enterprises. While many analysts believe the most recent data suggest China’s economy is stabilising, it has not been enough to alter the view that the country will need to embark on a big restructuring of its entire economic model, away from investment and towards consumption. Investors are already making the switch.

金融、能源和原材料類公司佔據上海股市約七成，其中大多數是國有企業。儘管許多分析師認爲最近的數據表明中國經濟企穩，但這不足以改變原有的觀點，即中國需要開始大幅重組整個經濟模式，從促投資向促消費轉移。投資者已經開始調整方向。

Though China’s markets are largely closed to foreign investors, a similar story has played out within Hong Kong. The H-share market – mainland companies listed offshore – has fallen almost 15 per cent this year. Yet the GEM board, a small-caps index of Chinese companies, has risen 8.5 per cent.

儘管中國市場在很大程度上不對外國投資者開放，但類似的場景同樣在香港上演。H股市場——由離岸上市的中國內地公司組成——今年跌幅近15%。但由中國公司組成的小盤股指數香港創業板指數(Gem)卻上揚8.5%。

“It has a lot to do with the relative traction within the economy. Big-caps are reflecting a global scepticism towards China, and that growth is slowing,” says Jake Lynch, who covers Asian small-caps at Macquarie. “There is a lot of talk about more friendly policies towards private companies . . . perhaps the market is also latching on to that.”

“這與經濟內部的相對吸引力有關。大盤股反映出全球對中國的懷疑，以及中國的增長在放緩，”麥格理(Macquarie)研究亞洲小盤股的傑克•林奇(Jake Lynch)表示，“現在很多人在討論對私有公司採取更友好的政策……或許市場聽取了這些信息。”

Much of the negative drag, both in H shares and Shanghai, has come from the banking sector, the biggest on both indices. China’s 2008 stimulus package pushed banks into lending huge amounts of cash for infrastructure and construction projects. As that debt comes due, many believe that the country’s banks will need a bailout once non-performing loans begin to stack up.

H股和上海股市的主要阻力來自銀行板塊，它也是兩個市場規模最大的板塊。中國2008年的刺激計劃導致銀行放出大量貸款，用於基建和建築項目。在許多人看來，當這些貸款到期時，隨着不良貸款開始累積，中國的銀行將需要紓困。

In June, fears about the banking system spread when the People’s Bank of China refrained from adding new liquidity into money markets, causing a jump in interbank lending rates. Financial shares tumbled as a result, leaving many banks trading at a price-to-book ratio below one, an indication that the market did not have faith in the value of a company’s stated assets.

6月份，中國央行(PBoC)拒絕爲貨幣市場注入新的流動性，致使銀行間拆借利率飆升，這導致外界對銀行體系的擔憂大肆蔓延。金融股因此暴跌，許多銀行市賬率不到1倍，這表明市場不信任銀行公佈的資產價值。

By contrast, Shenzhen’s three separate boards – which together make up the composite index – are virtually financials free.

相比之下，組成深圳股市的三大板塊幾乎不包含任何金融股。

Its main board features property stocks, such as China Vanke, and consumer-related companies such as electronics manufacturer ZTE. The rest of the market consists of small and medium-sized enterprises on its SME board, and high-growth companies on the GEM board. Together they carry some weight – Shenzhen has a total capitalisation of $1.34tn, recently overtaking Australia’s ASX 200.

主板包含萬科集團(China Vanke)等地產股，以及電子產品生產商中興(ZTE)等消費品公司。深市還包括中小型企業組成的中小企業板，以及高增長公司組成的創業板。它們加起來頗有分量——深市總市值達1.34萬億美元，近期超過了澳大利亞的ASX 200指數。

While the resurgent property market has helped, Shenzhen’s strength is largely a reflection of the scramble within China to invest in companies still capable of delivering rising profits. That is clearest on Shenzhen’s ChiNext index – home to small, fast-growing technology, media and healthcare companies. It is up more than 65 per cent this year, outpacing gains almost anywhere else in the world, amid a gold rush from Chinese retail punters.

雖然復甦的房地產市場起到了作用，但深市的強勢主要反映出中國國內投資者在爭相投資仍有能力提升利潤的公司。最明顯的例子是深市創業板(ChiNext)指數，它由快速增長的小型技術、媒體和醫療類公司組成。由於中國散戶投資者紛紛涌入，創業板指數今年已經上漲逾65%，漲幅超過世界上幾乎所有其他指數。

“Retail investors like to play small-caps because they feel it’s easier to have growth,” says Heather Hsu, strategist at CLSA Fortune. “Due to a lack of good quality names to invest in, they are willing to pay a premium.”

“散戶投資者喜歡投資小盤股，因爲他們認爲小盤股更容易增長。”財富里昂證券(CLSA Fortune)的策略師許蕙蕙表示，“由於缺乏可以投資的優質股，他們願意支付溢價購買小盤股。”

That willingness is certainly clear when it comes to valuations. The Shenzhen composite trades at about 20 times earnings, compared with just nine times for the Shanghai market. The ChiNext is even punchier, on a price to earnings ratio of 45, its highest level since 2010.

從估值來看，這種意願無疑十分強烈。深證綜指市盈率約爲20倍，而上海股市僅有9倍。創業板更加搶眼，市盈率爲45倍，是2010年以來的最高值。

With earnings growth forecast to be over 50 per cent this year, some analysts say there is some justification for the heady prices. But others have their doubts.

由於今年的預期盈利增長超過50%，一些分析師認爲，股價高漲是有理由的。但另一些人心存疑慮。

“It seems like it has a bubble; valuations are extremely high”, says Chen Li, head of China equity strategy at UBS Securities. “Clearly, there could be a big decrease.”

瑞銀證券(UBS Securities)主管中國股票策略的陳李表示：“看上去有泡沫，因爲估值已達到極高。很明顯，股價可能將大幅下降。”

Shifts in investment habits have also played a part in Shenzhen’s rise. Over the past seven years, total assets under management at Chinese mutual funds has stayed roughly the same. Yet the number of active funds has more than doubled, according to Mr Chen, meaning that each fund is smaller in size.

投資習慣的轉變也促成了深市的上揚。在過去7年，中國共同基金管理的總資產大體維持不變。但陳李表示，活躍的基金數量翻了一番還多，這意味着每隻基金的規模縮小了。

That change has enabled some funds to look towards smaller stocks, having previously been restricted to large, liquid equities, such as the state-owned companies listed in Shanghai.

這種變化讓一些基金能投資更小型的股票。它們之前只能投資流動性高的大型股，例如在上海上市的國有企業股票。

And Chinese funds often have a very limited performance horizon. Many portfolio managers are judged on a quarterly or monthly basis, giving extra incentive to take riskier, short-term bets.

而且，中國基金的業績通常被放在一個很短的週期內衡量。許多投資組合經理的業績評估是按季度或月度，因此增加了他們進行短期冒險賭博的動力。