更多的刺激對中國未必是好事

Pity Chinese policy makers. They must deal with an unbalanced economy in more ways than one. China’s population ranges from the millions of rural poor to hundreds of entrepreneurial billionaires, with an expanding middle class in between. Activity growth is still dependent on fixed asset investment, and consumers, in spite of the hordes of Chinese shoppers worldwide, are not spending enough at home. Efforts to stamp out corruption are not helping.

可憐的中國政策制定者們。他們得從不止一個方面應對不平衡的經濟。中國人口中，既有數以百萬計的農村貧困人口，也有數百個身價過億的企業家，中間還有一批日益壯大的中產階層。經濟活動的增長仍依賴於固定資產投資，同時雖然全球都有中國購物者的身影，但他們在本國市場的消費不夠。反腐敗鬥爭也對提振消費沒有幫助。

And so it was that last week Premier Li Keqiang hinted that the 2014 gross domestic product growth target of 7.5 per cent – once unthinkably low – might be missed. August data confirmed a slowdown in industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Little is going right.

中國總理李克強上週暗示，2014年可能無法實現7.5%（一度被認爲低得難以想象）的國內生產總值(GDP)增長目標。8月的數據證實了工業生產、零售銷售和固定資產投資領域的放緩。幾乎沒有一項數據令人振奮。

On Wednesday the People’s Bank of China appeared to save the day. A report on , a Chinese portal, leaked news of the central bank’s move to inject Rmb500bn ($81bn) into the top five Chinese banks. The liquidity will be available for three months. Analysts expect that the loans will be rolled over – this move is the first of a new wave of stimulus measures. Hong Kong-listed H shares, after dropping 6 per cent since Mr Li’s cautious outlook, bounced 1.5 per cent in relief.

週三，中國人民銀行似乎出臺了措施，出手救市。中國門戶網站新浪網()上的一篇報道透露，央行將向中國五大銀行注入5000億元人民幣（合810億美元）流動性，期限爲3個月（中國人民銀行拒絕證實此事——編者注）。分析者預計，這批貸款將被滾轉——此舉是新一輪刺激的首個動作。香港上市的H股在李克強發佈謹慎的經濟預測後下跌6%，現在如釋重負反彈1.5%。

But in spite of this joyful jump from financial instruments, more stimulus is not necessarily a good thing for China. It perpetuates the reliance on low-grade means of pumping up growth. And it is not sustainable. China wants markets to play a more decisive role in the economy. It knows that freer markets are necessary to aid rebalancing.

然而，雖然金融工具出現喜人漲勢，更多的刺激對中國未必是好事。它延續了對促進經濟增長的低質量手段的依賴，而且是不可持續的。中國希望市場在經濟中扮演更爲決定性的角色。它知道更自由的市場對推動再平衡是必要的。

So maybe the market is wrong. In two weeks, China celebrates national holidays. Its citizens get on the road for one of the largest annual human migrations. Shops have Golden Week sales. The demand for cash jumps. So the PBOC’s move may just be as short-term as the three-month tenor implies. Craftily, with this manoeuvre, China does not need to commit either way.

也許市場反應是錯的。兩週後，中國將迎來國慶假期。中國人將踏上路途，進行每年最壯觀的人類遷徙之一。商店將展開黃金週促銷活動。對現金的需求猛增。所以，中國央行此舉可能是臨時性的，就像3個月期限所暗示的那樣。中國官方此舉巧妙避免了在刺激和不刺激之間的任何一方面作出承諾。