東非鐵路受益於中國政策抱負

A few miles outside the town of Makindu on the Nairobi-Mombasa road sits a heavily guarded compound. Only the sign outside, in red Chinese lettering, indicates that this is the project site for “section 9” of a new $4bn Chinese-built railway that will run 300 miles between the Kenyan capital and the Indian Ocean port.

在蒙內公路（蒙巴薩至內羅畢）沿線的馬金杜鎮外數英里的地方，有一個戒備森嚴的大院。只有從外面的中文紅字招牌才能看出，這是中方承建的40億美元新建鐵路“第九標段”的項目工地。這條全長300英里的鐵路將會把肯尼亞首都和蒙巴薩這個印度洋港口連接起來。

The railway is the centrepiece of an infrastructure splurge by President Uhuru Kenyatta, who faces re-election this year and whose Kenyan government has invested heavily in roads, pipelines, oil development and geothermal power.

蒙內鐵路是肯尼亞總統烏呼魯?肯雅塔(Uhuru Kenyatta)發起的基礎設施建設潮的核心，他將在今年爭取連任，其政府大舉投資於公路、管道、石油開發和地熱發電。

It is also one of China’s most important investments in east Africa and follows the opening in January of a $4.2bn, 470-mile line from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, the capital of landlocked Ethiopia, replacing the 100-year-old French-built railway. And contrary to some critics, who have voiced concerns at China’s growing presence in Africa, residents of Makindu are upbeat on the biggest infrastructure project in Kenya since independence 54 years ago.

這也是中國在東非最重要的投資項目之一。今年1月，投資42億美元、全長470英里的吉亞鐵路（從吉布地通往內陸國家埃塞俄比亞首都亞的斯亞貝巴）啓用，取代了法國人建設的已有100年曆史的鐵路。與一些對中國在非洲觸角越伸越長表示擔憂的批評相反，馬金杜居民對肯尼亞自54年前獨立以來最大的基礎設施項目感到樂觀。

“It’s very smart,” says Elizabeth Wanjiru Ngima, a housewife, referring to the elevated line and towering new station just outside town. “It’s very quick, very quiet and when you are on it you [will] feel like you are in heaven,” she adds, conceding that she has not yet ridden on the new train, which will be commissioned in June.

家庭婦女伊麗莎白?萬伊魯?恩吉馬(Elizabeth Wanjiru Ngima)在談到鎮外的高架鐵路和巍峨的新車站時表示：“它非常漂亮。”她補充稱：“它非常快、非常安靜，當你坐在上面的時候，你會感覺像是在天堂。”她承認自己還沒有坐過新火車——後者將於今年6月進行調試。

Other residents of Makindu, including the barber, counter a common complaint in Africa that Chinese do not hire local people, saying the construction company employs Kenyan labourers, guards and chefs.

馬金杜的其他居民（包括鎮上的理髮師）反駁了非洲大陸常見的一個抱怨，即中國人不僱傭當地人，他們說，這家建築公司僱傭了肯尼亞工人、保安和廚師。

In the past 10 years, China has gone from having little presence in Kenya to becoming one of its most important trading and investment partners. Thanks to shipments of rolling stock and other equipment, Kenya’s imports from China ballooned to nearly $5bn in 2016 — a threefold increase from 2010 — against $780m from the US.

在過去10年裏，中國在肯尼亞幾乎從零開始，迅速發展成爲該國最重要的貿易和投資夥伴之一。得益於鐵路車輛和其他設備的進口，肯尼亞從中國的進口在2016年飆升至近50億美元（是2010年的3倍），而從美國進口只有7.8億美元。

Kenya is on the outer reaches of China’s One Belt One Road project, through which Beijing intends to invest almost $1tn in infrastructure on the old Silk Road and as far as Africa’s east coast, in a push to improve trade links, win political influence and deploy the excess capacity of its steel and construction industries.

肯尼亞處於中國“一帶一路”項目的外圍。北京方面有意通過“一帶一路”項目，在古老的絲綢之路以及遠至非洲東海岸的境外投資近1萬億美元建設基礎設施，目的是改善貿易鏈接，贏得政治影響力，並且消化國內鋼鐵和建築行業的過剩產能。

The Nairobi-Mombasa railway is the first leg of a line intended to go all the way to Kampala in Uganda and, eventually, to Rwanda, knitting together swaths of the east African Community’s emerging trade bloc. It will replace the near-defunct British railway — dubbed the “Lunatic Line” because of the cost in lives and money it took to build — constructed in the late 19th century.

蒙內鐵路是一條國際鐵路的第一段，這條鐵路隨後將延伸至烏干達的坎帕拉，最終抵達盧旺達，將新興的東非共同體(East African Community)貿易集團的大片地區連接起來。屆時它將取代19世紀末由英國人建設的、如今近乎荒廢的鐵路——當年由於建造鐵路導致的巨大生命和成本代價，那條鐵路有“神經病鐵路”之稱。

“The entire Africa continent can be connected by Chinese rail, so this Kenya rail is a kind of prototype for all future projects,” says Wang Dehua, a professor at Shanghai Institute for International Studies. “It is a big strategic move for our country.”

上海國際問題研究院(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)教授王德華表示：“整個非洲大陸都可以用中國鐵路連接起來，因此這條肯尼亞鐵路是未來所有項目的某種原型。對我們國家來說，這是一個重大的戰略舉措。”

China is providing Kenya with financing for roughly 90 per cent of the Nairobi-Mombasa project. The railway is being built by state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation, which will operate it for the first five years, and financed by China’s Eximbank. Of $3.6bn in financing, $2bn is a 15-year loan at Libor plus 360 basis points. The remaining $1.6bn is on concessional terms of 2 per cent interest, repayable over 20 years, according to the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University.

中國爲蒙內鐵路項目提供了大約90%的融資。蒙內鐵路由國有的中國路橋公司(China Road and Bridge Corporation)承建——該公司還將負責頭5年的運營——並獲得中國進出口銀行(Exim Bank of China)的融資。據美國約翰?霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)的“中非研究倡議”(China-Africa Research Initiative)介紹，在36億美元的融資中，有20億美元是15年貸款，利率爲倫敦銀行同業拆借利率(Libor)加360個基點。其餘16億美元是2%的優惠利率貸款，分20年償還。

The loans, which have pushed Kenya’s debt above 50 per cent of output, have raised concern that Mr Kenyatta’s government might be building a white elephant. Critics say the railway will cost significantly more per mile than equivalent projects in Ethiopia and Morocco, raising suspicion that much has been creamed off by unscrupulous politicians.

這些貸款使得肯尼亞的債務升至相當於GDP的50%以上，還引發人們擔心，肯雅塔領導的政府可能在建設華而不實的東西。批評者們表示，該鐵路每英里成本顯著高於埃塞俄比亞和摩洛哥的同類項目，令人懷疑有很多錢被不擇手段的政客們侵吞了。

Kwame Owino, executive director of the Institute of Economic Affairs, complains over the lack of transparency of a project he says was negotiated in secret.

肯尼亞經濟事務研究所(Institute of Economic Affairs)的執行總監誇梅?奧維諾(Kwame Owino)抱怨稱，這個祕密談判達成的項目缺乏透明度。

“It’s clear that Kenya got the short end of the stick,” he says. “This is a very expensive piece of infrastructure whose specifications have been overstated.”

他說：“肯尼亞顯然吃虧了。這是非常昂貴的基礎設施，它的技術指標被誇大了。”

Mr Owino adds that the advertised improvement in speed — just four hours from coast to capital, compared with double that by truck — is not important when it comes to cargo. “The economic benefits for Kenya are exaggerated.”

奧維諾補充稱，就貨運而言，被大肆宣揚的速度提高並不重要——從海岸到首都只需4個小時，而卡車運輸需要8個小時。“給肯尼亞帶來的經濟效益被誇大了。”

China has not been exactly open about the railway. At Makindu, the Financial Times was politely referred to the Chinese embassy in Nairobi, which refused a request for an interview. Still, China Road and Bridge has sought to head off criticism by employing nearly 20,000 local workers. It has also made concessions to environmentalists by building underpasses for wildlife to cross the section of railway that passes through Tsavo National Park.

中國方面對這條鐵路的情況不是很願意公開。在馬金杜，英國《金融時報》的採訪要求遭到禮貌拒絕，讓記者去找中國駐內羅畢大使館，而後者拒絕接受採訪。然而，中國路橋公司尋求通過僱傭近2萬名當地工人來反駁批評。該公司還對環保主義者做出讓步，爲野生動物建造了地下通道，讓它們得以穿越經過察沃國家公園(Tsavo National Park)的那段鐵路。

Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based investment consultant, reckons the economic benefits could be higher than sceptics think if the rail makes Kenya a more efficient transport conduit for east African trade.

內羅畢投資顧問阿里-汗?撒特徹(Aly-Khan Satchu)認爲，如果蒙內鐵路使肯尼亞成爲效率更高的東非貿易通道，經濟效益可能超出懷疑者的預期。

China, not always known for its soft-power skills, may even be learning a few tricks, he says, for example by training Kenyan women to be train drivers.

他說，並不總是以軟實力聞名的中國甚至學會了一些技巧，例如培訓肯尼亞婦女當火車司機。

Whatever the criticisms about China’s investment drive in other parts of Africa, they are not evident on the streets of Nairobi.

無論非洲其他國家如何抨擊中國的投資努力，在內羅畢的街頭上看不到這類跡象。

“We heard that the British gave billions of shillings to build roads but they never got built,” says Lillian Wamuyu, who helps run slum schools in the capital. “But if you see two Chinese working, you know that road will be done in two months.”

在首都幫助運營貧民學校的莉蓮?瓦木峪(Lillian Wamuyu)表示：“我們聽說，英國人拿出數十億先令建造公路，但它們從未建成。但如果你看到兩個中國人幹活，你就知道，那條公路將在兩個月後建成。”