日本負利率政策爲何陷入困境
There is no easy way to translate the phrase “shoot yourself in the foot” into Japanese. That is a pity. Six months ago the Tokyo government privatised the Japan Post Bank — a financial group with more than Y200tn of assets — by selling Y12tn worth of shares to the public.
我們很難把“搬起石頭砸自己的腳”譯成日文。這令人遺憾。6個月前，日本政府將日本郵政銀行(Japan Post Bank)私有化，將價值12萬億日元的股票出售給公衆。這家金融集團擁有逾200萬億日元的資產。
The hope was that this would finally tempt ordinary investors — the so-called Mrs Watanabes of Japan — to embrace equity ownership, encouraging households to abandon cash and assume asset risk, boosting growth.
日本政府希望此舉將最終吸引普通投資者（所謂的渡邊太太(Mrs Watanabes)）投資股票，鼓勵家家戶戶放棄現金，願意承受資產風險，從而推動增長。
That, however, was before the Bank of Japan’s introduction in January of negative interest rates — which this week tipped yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds below zero. This will hit JPB harder than any other institution, since almost half its portfolio is held in such bonds. Unsurprisingly then, its share price plunged more than 20 per cent below the initial public offering level . Instead of teaching Mrs Watanabe the joys of equity risk, the JPB policy has left her burnt.
然而，那是日本央行(Bank of Japan)今年1月推出負利率之前的事情；負利率最近導致日本10年期政府債券收益率降至零以下。這對日本郵政銀行的衝擊將超過其他任何金融機構，因爲該行投資組合中的幾乎一半資產是此類債券。難怪該行股價大跌至低於首次公開發行(IPO)發行價逾20%的水平。日本政府對該銀行的處置沒有讓“渡邊太太”享受到股市風險的樂趣，反而燒傷了她。
Many outside Japan will be tempted to dismiss this as a local peculiarity. That would be a mistake. The lesson from this saga is that it is not just investors being pushed into an Alice-in-Wonderland financial world by today’s wild central bank monetary experiments. Governments, too, are being tipped into peculiar policy contradictions, raising questions about whether negative rates will do what they are intended to do, in Japan as elsewhere.
日本以外的很多人很容易將這視爲個案。這麼認爲就錯了。這個故事帶給我們的教訓是，被如今瘋狂的央行貨幣實驗推入“愛麗絲夢遊仙境”般金融世界的不僅僅是投資者。政府也正被帶入奇特的政策矛盾，這引發了有關負利率能不能收到預期效果的質疑——在日本以及其他國家。
To understand this, take a look at the mechanics of Japan’s experiment. When the BoJ introduced negative rates, officials argued they would boost growth because the shock would finally force companies and investors to do something productive with their mountains of idle cash or bank deposits.
要理解這點，看一看日本貨幣政策實驗的作用機制吧。當日本央行提出負利率時，官員們辯稱，負利率將推動增長，因爲這種衝擊將最終迫使企業和投資者利用他們閒置的鉅額資金或銀行存款，做一些富有成效的事情。
That sounds sensible, but since officials also feared that negative bank rates would cause depositors to stuff cash under the mattress, they took a leaf from Switzerland’s book and designed policies to ensure retail accounts are not subject to negative rates. The only deposits with negative rates are those held at the central bank itself by big institutions — about Y10tn of assets.
這聽上去合情合理，但官員們還擔心，銀行負利率將導致儲戶把錢藏在枕頭底下，因此他們借鑑瑞士的經驗，從政策設計上確保散戶賬戶不適用負利率。唯一面對負利率的存款是大型金融機構存放在日本央行的存款，資產規模約爲10萬億日元。
Now, if that Y10tn pot belonged to companies or banks, there might be a clear transmission mechanism to the “real” economy. But Brian Waterhouse, an analyst at Asia-focused brokerage CLSA, estimates that Y8tn emanates from none other than JPB , which is not allowed to make loans. Of course, if the company responded to negative rates by buying risky Japanese assets, such as equities and bonds, it could still create indirect sources of credit though at present it does not seem to be doing so.
如果這10萬億日元資金屬於企業或銀行，那就可能會有一個向着“實體”經濟的清晰傳導機制。但關注亞洲的里昂證券(CLSA)分析師布賴恩•沃特豪斯(Brian Waterhouse)估計，這其中有高達8萬億日元來自日本郵政銀行，而該行被禁止發放貸款。當然，如果該行通過買入日本高風險資產（例如股票和債券）對負利率做出迴應，它仍能創造間接的信貸來源，儘管目前該行似乎並沒有這麼做。
Instead, JPB managers, like other asset managers, seem more inclined to put money overseas. In theory, that could provide another type of transmission mechanism: an important, if unstated, reason for the BoJ’s introduction of negative rates was the hope that it would weaken the yen. Sadly even this policy has backfired: in the past month the yen has strengthened by 7 per cent against the dollar, which, in turn, has undermined the credibility of the central bank.
相反，與其他資產管理者一樣，日本郵政銀行的管理者似乎更傾向於將資金投向海外。理論上，這可能會提供另一種傳導機制：日本央行引入負利率的一個重要（但沒有明說的）原因是希望此舉令日元貶值。遺憾的是，就連這個政策也弄巧成拙：過去一個月，日元兌美元升值7%，這進而破壞了日本央行的可信度。
Maybe this is a temporary setback. And some BoJ officials think there will be other transmission channels. In particular, they hope that the shock of negative rates will force Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to introduce equally radical structural reforms to the corporate world and labour markets. In particular, the BoJ is urging companies to raise wages in order to fight deflation and find uses for spare corporate cash.
或許這是暫時的挫折。日本央行一些官員認爲，還會出現其他傳導渠道。尤其是，他們希望負利率的衝擊將迫使日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)在企業界和勞動力市場推行同樣激進的結構性改革。尤其是，日本央行正敦促企業提高薪資，以抗擊通縮並充分利用企業的閒置資金。
Even this idea seems contradictory. In a world of negative rates, it is hard to see why companies would suddenly feel inspired to raise salaries sharply. Watching government bond yields turn negative has made business leaders more, not less, fearful.
即便是這種想法似乎也是矛盾的。在負利率世界裏，很難想象企業會突然覺得受到鼓舞而大幅加薪。看到政府債券收益率變爲負值，已經讓企業高管變得更擔心（而不是放心）了。
Of course, for the incorrigible optimist, it is possible to see a silver lining: as Jesper Koll of Wisdom Tree asset managers points out, the fact that policy is failing might yet force the Abe government to act. Mr Koll expects to see even more radical fiscal measures soon, in the form, for example, of “cash handouts to low-income pensioners” and assistance to mothers. “Helicopter money could become a real possibility,” he says.
當然，不可救藥的樂觀主義者可能會看到一縷希望之光：正如資產管理公司Wisdom Tree的傑斯珀•科爾(Jesper Koll)所指出的那樣，政策失靈的事實仍有可能迫使安倍政府採取行動。科爾預計很快就會出現更多激進的財政舉措，例如“向低收入養老金領取者發放現金”以及向母親提供補助。他表示：“‘直升機撒錢’可能會變成一件真正有可能發生的事情。”
Perhaps so, but without such a gesture from Mr Abe’s team, the sad message is that Japan and its central bank seem stuck. Consider it a lesson in the need for concerted government action.
或許如此，但在安倍團隊沒有表態的情況下，令人悲哀的信息是，日本和日本央行似乎正陷入僵局。把這視爲一個需要政府協調行動的教訓吧。
According to Hiroshi Nakaso, deputy BoJ governor, it is a sign that monetary policy alone “is not a panacea” when deflation hits. Either way, global investors should look at JPB and wince. So should poor Mrs Watanabe.
日本央行副行長中曾宏(Hiroshi Nakaso)表示，這表明，在通縮出現時，貨幣政策本身“不是萬能藥”。不管怎樣，全球投資者應該關注日本郵政銀行的案例，然後知難而退。可憐的“渡邊太太”也應如此。
