中國經濟政策轉變將讓誰受益

The global turbulence triggered by China’s stock market crash should not obscure a greater truth: policy shifts in Beijing are positive for developed economies. Investors should look to buy US equities on the dip.

中國股市暴跌引發了全球動盪，但這不應掩蓋一個更重大的事實：中國的政策轉變對發達經濟體有好處。投資者應考慮逢低買入美國股票。

The sharp structural slowdown in China, long predicted but wilfully ignored until now, is a catastrophe for exporters of natural resources and deflationary for most emerging markets, with the exception of Mexico and India. China and most other emerging economies are likely to see continued demand deflation in the next 12-18 months and further nominal currency depreciation. We believe the renminbi could fall another 5-10 per cent.

中國經濟出現大幅結構性放緩的可能性早在意料之中，但此前一直被有意忽視。這種放緩對自然資源出口國而言是一場大災難，並給多數新興市場（墨西哥和印度除外）帶來通縮效應。中國及其他多數新興經濟體在未來12至18個月可能會看到持續的由需求方面引發的通縮，同時名義匯率將進一步貶值。我們認爲，人民幣可能會再貶值5%至10%。

But this is ultimately good news for developed markets. Wasteful investment in China, now being wound down, has been depressing global returns for a decade. Tumbling commodity prices, by transferring income from producers to consumers, act as a tax cut for rich-country households. This is what is needed in a world lacking genuine consumer demand. These divergent trends fuse together in our “deflationary boom” outlook for the world. Our analysis suggests both the deflation and boom still have further to run, with investors likely to keep lurching between the positive and negative aspects of this pattern of growth.

但對於發達市場而言，這歸根結底是個好消息。10年來，中國的浪費性投資——現在這類投資逐步減少——一直在拉低全球回報率。大宗商品價格暴跌將收入從生產者向消費者轉移，對於富國的家庭而言，這起到了減稅的效果。這正是當前這個缺乏真正的消費者需求的世界所需要的。這些不同的趨勢融合在一起，構成了我們所說的全球“通縮繁榮”(deflationary boom)前景。我們的分析顯示，通縮和繁榮都尚無結束跡象，投資者可能會在這種增長模式的有利方面和不利方面之間搖擺不定。

The global economy thus remains in a precarious position. Much will depend, of course, on the timing and the path of the Federal Reserve’s tightening. US domestic data still justify an initial rate rise in the next few months. But the biggest uncertainty surrounds China.

因此，全球經濟仍將處於不穩定狀態。當然，這將在很大程度上取決於美聯儲(Fed)收緊貨幣政策的時間和路線。美國國內數據仍支持在未來幾個月開始加息。但最大的不確定性來自中國。

Despite botched attempts to prop up share prices and a confusing mini-depreciation of the renminbi, the leadership in Beijing seems to be on the right policy route.

儘管支撐股價的救市努力顯得笨拙，將人民幣小幅貶值的政策也令人困惑，但中國領導人的政策路線似乎是正確的。

But China’s resolve will not truly be tested until economic weakness finally spreads to the labour market over the next 12-18 months. And even if Beijing sticks to reform, it could easily fail to pull off the transition from investment led to consumption powered growth. Investment is the most volatile component of output and in China accounts for a whopping 46 per cent of GDP, so the possibility of a self-fulfilling investment led collapse is real.

然而，在經濟疲弱最終在未來12至18個月蔓延至勞動力市場之前，中國的決心不會受到真正考驗。即便中國堅持改革，也很容易無法實現經濟增長模式從投資拉動型向消費拉動型的轉變。投資是產出中最具波動性的組成部分，在中國，投資佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例高達46%，因此，具有自我實現效應的投資導致經濟崩潰的可能性是真實存在的。

A lot hinges, too, on how others respond to China’s slowdown. If Beijing sticks to the path of reform, it can pull its economy out of the doldrums after a few years of economic and financial distress. But it needs the rest of the world to accept the transformation it is attempting and what it entails. The US must welcome China into the global financial system and allow it to take its rightful place in global monetary institutions. Whether the renminbi is added to the currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right unit will be a litmus test.

這也在很大程度上取決於其他國家對中國經濟放緩的迴應。如果中國堅持改革道路，在經過幾年的經濟和金融困境後，中國有望讓經濟走出低迷。但這需要全球其他國家接受中國正在嘗試的轉型及其後果。美國必須歡迎中國進入全球金融體系，並允許中國在全球貨幣機構中佔據合理地位。人民幣是否被納入國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權的貨幣籃子，將是一塊試金石。

If it is rejected, Beijing may well redouble efforts to establish an alternative financial system centred on the renminbi, not the dollar. The US must also accept that China’s embrace of a greater role for market forces — a central aim of US international economic policy — will involve a stronger dollar.

如果遭到否決，中國很有可能會加倍努力建立一個以人民幣（而非美元）爲中心的替代金融體系。美國還必須接受一點，中國朝着讓市場力量發揮更大作用（這是美國國際經濟政策的一個主要目標）的方向邁進將意味着美元走強。

The key economy to watch in trying to assess the global response is Japan. “Abenomics”, the economic programme of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is turning into a policy disaster. It has done little to stimulate domestic demand and the Bank of Japan will be under political pressure to launch yet another round of quantitative easing. This would open a new front in the currency war and make it difficult for China and the US not to respond. After China’s depreciation, Japan is the remaining piece of the puzzle that could surprise global markets. A full-blown currency war and the eventual protectionism it would spark is the main danger for the global economy and risk assets. At present, though, this is not our main scenario.

在試圖評估全球其他國家的迴應時，一個需要關注的關鍵經濟體是日本。日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)提出的“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)振興經濟計劃正變成一場政策災難。它幾乎無助於刺激內需，而日本央行(Bank of Japan)將面臨政治壓力，迫使其推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策。這將爲貨幣戰爭開啓一條新的前線，中國和美國很難不做出迴應。在中國將人民幣貶值後，日本是有可能讓全球市場感到意外的另一個因素。全面貨幣戰爭及其將引發的保護主義是全球經濟和風險資產面臨的主要危險。不過，就目前來說，這並非我們的主要假設情景。

Recent events have understandably dented confidence in China, but investors should not let their anxieties blind them to the bigger picture: important changes are under way. Beijing’s apparent determination to clean up past excesses and to liberalise and rebalance its economy is light at the end of the tunnel. As such, false alarms about the end of the US cycle and fears that the Fed is making a policy mistake should provide buyable dips in US equities.

可想而知，最近的局勢削弱了投資者對中國的信心，但投資者不應因爲焦慮而看不到這個更重要的事實：中國正在進行重大的改革。顯然，中國正試圖整頓以往的過度現象，推進經濟自由化和再平衡，這種決心是黑暗盡頭的曙光。就此而言，有關美國週期結束的虛假警報以及美聯儲將犯下政策失誤的擔憂，應會製造一個趁低吸納美國股票的機會。