中國鐵路外交在拉丁美洲頻繁受挫
LUCAS DO RIO VERDE, Brazil — The ambitions are dizzying, some of the grandest in Latin America since thousands of laborers perished building railways through the forbidding jungles of Brazil more than a century ago.
巴西貝爾德河畔盧卡斯——它們堪稱逾一個世紀前成千上萬的鐵路建設勞工喪生於險惡的巴西叢林以來拉丁美洲最宏大的一些項目，其中的萬丈雄心令人目眩。
China has sought to build a “dry canal” in the form of a railway across Colombia, linking the Caribbean to the Pacific. Chinese investors announced another huge venture in Honduras, two ports and a 375-mile railroad from sea to sea. Then this June, China announced yet another megarailway — nearly 10 times as long — across Brazil and Peru, stretching from one coast of South America to the other.
中國希望打造一條“陸上通道”，通過穿越哥倫比亞的鐵路線來把加勒比海和太平洋連接起來。中國投資者還宣佈將在洪都拉斯進行大型工程，用兩座港口和一條375英里長（約合600公里）的鐵路線將這兩片海域打通。到了今年6月，中國宣佈了又一個超級鐵路項目，是前述長度的近10倍。它將穿越巴西和祕魯，貫通南美的東西海岸。
But across the region, one large Chinese rail venture after another has come crashing against the hard realities of Latin American politics, resistance from environmental groups, and a growing wariness toward China. While China boasts of its rail initiatives around the world, it has often been stymied here in Latin America, reflecting how even China’s formidable ambitions have limits.
然而，在這片大陸的各個地方，中國一個接一個的大型鐵路項目開始遭遇拉丁美洲冰冷的政治現實、環境團體的抵制，以及對中國越來越深的警惕。儘管中國總是誇耀它在世界各地的鐵路項目，但在拉丁美洲卻頻繁受阻，由此折射出，即便是中國的勃勃雄心也會面臨限制。
Now, new worries over China’s economic growth are raising more doubts about the blitz of what China calls its “railroad diplomacy,” as parts of Latin America reel from their dependence on China.
眼下，在拉丁美洲的不少地區頭疼於自身對中國的依賴之際，對中國經濟增長狀況的新擔憂令其口中的“鐵路外交”攻勢遭受了更多的質疑。
The enormous twin-ocean railroad across Brazil and Peru, in particular, “will be a crucial test of China’s mettle as a global power and the potential for greater acquiescence in South America to the designs that China has on our resources,” said José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, a Brazilian scholar.
尤其是規模龐大的穿越巴西和祕魯的兩大洋鐵路計劃，“將成爲一次關鍵的考驗，衡量的是中國作爲一個全球大國的本事，以及中國對南美資源的籌謀會得到我們更大接受度的可能性，”巴西學者若澤·歐斯塔基奧·迪尼茲·阿爾維斯(José Eustáquio Diniz Alves)表示。
“We’re experiencing the downside of our overreliance on China now that the opaque Chinese economy is in flux,” he added. “Imagine what will happen if this railway somehow advances, bringing with it environmental devastation and even more leverage for China in our affairs.”
“鑑於撲朔迷離的中國經濟目前處於不穩定狀態，我們正在經歷對它過度依賴的負面影響，”他還說。“假如這條鐵路得以推進，會對環境帶來毀滅，給中國送上插手我們事務的更大籌碼。想象一下，那會是怎樣一番情形？”
More than 100 years ago, Americans were among the foreigners who rolled into the heart of South America with ambitious plans to build railways. The ruins of their grand designs for the Brazilian Amazon, called the Devil’s Railway because of the thousands of workers who died building it, are a testament to the dangers of relying too heavily on commodity exports.
一百多年前，美國等外部勢力懷着修建鐵路的雄心開進了南美腹地。他們對巴西亞馬孫叢林的這一宏偉藍圖被稱爲“魔鬼鐵路”(Devil’s Railway)，得名於因此消逝的成千上萬條生命。它的遺蹟說明了過於依賴大宗商品出口的危險性。
Officials slowly abandoned the railroad, parts of which are now swallowed by jungle, after rubber prices collapsed generations ago. These days, China is the one suffering an array of setbacks in railroad projects across the region, at a time when the demand for Latin America’s commodities — like soybeans, iron ore, copper and oil — has slowed.
數十年前橡膠價格崩盤之後，官方逐漸遺棄了這條鐵路，部分路段如今隱沒在了叢林裏。到了現在，當拉丁美洲大宗商品——大豆、鐵礦石、銅和石油等——面臨需求放緩之時，在穿越該地區的鐵路項目上遭遇重挫的變成了中國。
Last November, Mexico abruptly canceled a Chinese-led bid to build a $4.3 billion high-speed rail system after accusations that the Mexican government had favored contractors who were part of the consortium.
去年11月，墨西哥突然取消了中國中標的高鐵建設項目，此前，有人指控該國政府偏袒了中標方當中的承包商。該項目涉及43億美元的投資。
In Honduras, two years have passed since Chinese investors announced the railway linking the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific. Yet Miguel Servellón, an official with the state agency promoting the project, said it was “still a long way from happening,” listing obstacles like a complex environmental approval process.
在洪都拉斯，中國投資者兩年前就宣佈要修建一條連接加勒比海和太平洋的鐵路。但在負責促進該項目的官方機構任職的官員米格爾·塞韋利翁(Miguel Servellón)稱，“離動工還有很長的路要走”，並列舉了面臨的障礙，如複雜的環境審批程序。
In another project aimed at finding an alternative to the Panama Canal, the Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, said four years ago that Colombia and China had a plan that was “quite advanced” to build a railway linking the Pacific to the Caribbean. But the mood has changed considerably since then.
四年前，哥倫比亞總統胡安·曼努埃爾·桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)稱，哥倫比亞和中國製定了一個“相當成熟”的計劃，打算修建一條連接太平洋和加勒比海的鐵路。該項目意在找到一條替代巴拿馬運河的通道。但時至今日，人們的情緒已經有了很大的改變。
“It’s a subject that was mentioned in 2011 and subsequently had minimal relevance,” said Daniela Sánchez, the director of the Colombia-China Chamber of Commerce.
“那是2011年提到的事情，後來幾乎銷聲匿跡，”哥倫比亞-中國商會(Colombia-China Chamber of Commerce)會長達妮埃拉·桑切斯(Daniela Sánchez)說。
In Venezuela, Chinese companies actually broke ground on a 290-mile high-speed railway, part of a grandiose plan by President Hugo Chávez, to “rebalance” the population away from the coast.
在委內瑞拉，中國公司修建一條290英里長的高鐵的項目的確動工了。該項目是委內瑞拉總統烏戈·查韋斯(Hugo Chávez)爲將人口從沿海地區“轉移”而制定的宏偉計劃的一部分。
But while Venezuela’s government boasted that passenger service would start in 2012, the project has been fraught for years with work stoppages and money shortfalls on the Venezuelan side. The Chinese authorities say that more than half of the railway has been built, though Venezuelan news media reported in June that work camps on the route had been abandoned.
委內瑞拉政府曾誇口稱，將在2012開通客運服務，但多年來，該項目一直深受停工和委內瑞拉資金不足的困擾。中國當局稱項目已完工過半，而委內瑞拉新聞媒體6月報道稱，沿線的工地已被廢棄。
“The process would be faster if we had abundant capital,” Liang Enguang, deputy general manager of the China Railway Engineering Corporation’s Venezuelan unit, told reporters.
“如果我們有充足的資金，進程就會更快，”中國鐵路工程總公司委內瑞拉分公司副總經理樑恩廣（音）對記者表示。
An even bigger project floated by a Chinese telecommunications tycoon, a 172-mile canal across Nicaragua, intended as a rival to the Panama Canal, has been met with broad skepticism about its feasibility as well as protests by farmers living along the proposed route.
中國的一家電信巨頭還提出了一個更大的項目，即修一條172英里長的運河貫穿尼加拉瓜，使其與巴拿馬運河競爭。但該項目遭到了生活在規劃線路沿線的農民的抗議，其可行性也廣受質疑。
Despite the obstacles, China has pressed ahead with the twin-ocean railway across Brazil and Peru, building on trade between China and Latin America that surged to $285 billion in 2014, from $12 billion in 2000, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund.
儘管面臨阻礙，中國仍在以中國與拉美的貿易爲基礎，推進貫通巴西和祕魯的兩洋鐵路項目。來自國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的數據顯示，中國與拉美之間的貿易額已從2000年的120億美元，增至2014年的2850億美元。
Lucas do Rio Verde, a farming outpost of 70,000 people, could find itself almost in the middle of the proposed 3,300-mile route, raising hopes that it could be transformed into a major agricultural shipping hub.
貝爾德河畔盧卡斯是一個偏遠的農業城鎮，有7萬人。它可能會發現自己幾乎處在這條3300英里長的規劃線路的中間位置。這激起了一些人的希望，以爲這座城市可能會變成一個主要的農產品運輸中心。
But in the shadows of the grain silos towering over soybean fields and the meat-processing plant here, the responses have often involved more shrugging than jumping for joy.
但在聳立在大豆田旁邊的糧倉及肉製品加工廠投下的陰影裏，人們的反應往往更多的是滿不在乎，而非歡欣雀躍。
“I don’t doubt that China has the money and know-how to make this happen,” said Ricardo Tomczyk, the president of an industry group representing soybean farmers. But “we know that Brazil’s bureaucracy is more formidable than building a railway across the peaks of the Andes.”
“我不懷疑中國有做成這件事所需要的資金和技術，”一個代表大豆種植者的行業組織的負責人裏卡多·託姆奇克(Ricardo Tomczyk)說。但“我們知道，巴西的官僚主義，比在安第斯山脈的叢山峻林中修鐵路更棘手”。
More enthusiastic supporters of the venture argue that the recent flux in the Chinese economy is merely a blip in China’s rise in Latin America. Though some economists have noted the steady decline in China’s foreign currency reserves, Chinese banks and engineering companies are still expected to have ample funds for the $10 billion project, they say, despite the recent drop in China’s currency, the renminbi.
更熱情一些的支持者則表示，中國經濟最近出現的動盪，只是讓該國在拉美崛起的趨勢暫時回落。一些經濟學家提到了中國外匯儲備的穩步下滑，但他們表示，中國的銀行和工程公司依然有望爲涉及100億美元的這一項目提供充足的資金，即便最近中國的貨幣人民幣出現貶值。
In fact, some political analysts say that the decline in commodity prices and Brazil’s stumbling economy could actually enhance China’s bargaining power, helping it to persuade the local authorities to accept Chinese terms for the railway.
事實上，一些政治分析人士稱，大宗商品價格的下跌和巴西經濟面臨的困境，實際上可能會增加中國討價還價的能力，幫助中國說服地方政府接受中方給修建鐵路開出的條件。
“Barring a more intense crisis in China, Chinese investors still wield enormous financial clout, far more than the strained players in the Brazilian market,” said André Nassif, an economist at Funda漀 Getúlio Vargas, an elite university in Rio de Janeiro.
“除非國內出現更嚴峻的危機，中國投資者擁有的巨大金融實力，依然大幅壓倒巴西市場上那些承受着壓力的參與者，”里約熱內盧的精英學府瓦加斯商學院(Funda漀 Getúlio Vargas)的經濟學者安德烈·納西夫(André Nassif)說。
Still, political leaders, farmers and environmental activists are eyeing China’s difficulties in completing railroads elsewhere in Latin America. They point out Brazil’s particularly nettlesome bureaucracy, its laws prohibiting China from hiring its own laborers, a web of auditing courts, and the capacity of dozens of different prosecutors to cripple megaprojects with lawsuits.
然而，政治領袖、農場主和環保活動人士正觀察着中國在完成拉美其他地方的鐵路時面臨的困難。他們指出了巴西特別惱人的官僚體系、禁止中國僱傭自己的工人的法律、錯綜複雜的審計法庭以及可以通過訴訟打擊大型項目的數十名各類檢察官。
“On top of all that, we have a very fragile government,” said Otaviano Pivetta, the mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde, noting the push to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, who supports the Chinese railway project. “Sure, I’d like this to happen, but we cannot ignore the obstacles.”
“除此之外，我們的政府非常脆弱，”貝爾德河畔盧卡斯市長奧塔維亞諾·皮韋塔(Otaviano Pivetta)說。他提到了彈劾支持中國鐵路項目的總統迪爾瑪·羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)的行動。“當然，我希望這個項目能做成，但我們不能忽視那些障礙。”
China already outranks the United States as Brazil’s largest trading partner. But while Chinese demand for commodities fueled the growth of farming cities like Lucas do Rio Verde, exports of soybeans and corn are still largely taken to ports on deplorable public roads like BR-163, a 1,097-mile route cutting across the Amazon.
中國已經超越美國，成爲巴西最大的貿易伙伴。儘管中國對大宗商品的需求推動了貝爾德河畔盧卡斯等農業城鎮的增長，但出口的大豆和玉米，依然主要通過BR-163等路況糟糕的公路運往港口。BR-163是一條穿越亞馬孫雨林的線路，長1097英里。
Stretches of the road remain unpaved, raising freight costs. When it rains, some truckers along muddy stretches simply find themselves stuck for days.
這條路的部分路段仍是土路，這增加了貨運成本。下雨天，一些行駛在泥濘路段的貨車司機會發現，自己要被困數天。
Scholars of China’s ties to Latin America say the proposed railway would go well beyond cutting shipping costs, reflecting Beijing’s efforts to secure raw materials, improve its food security and find new markets for Chinese engineering and rail firms at a time when the nation’s economic growth is slowing.
研究中國與拉美的關係的學者稱，提議的鐵路遠不止會削減運輸成本，它還反映了中國在國內經濟增長放緩之際，爲獲得原料、增強糧食安全併爲中國的工程和鐵路公司尋找新市場而採取的行動。
“The Chinese don’t fully trust that the U.S. won’t try to restrict them at certain strategic choke points,” said R. Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, pointing to China’s reliance on shipping lanes like the Panama Canal.
“中國不完全相信美國不會在某些戰略要衝上試圖限制他們，”美國陸軍戰爭學院戰略研究院(United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute)的拉美研究教授R·埃文·埃利斯(R. Evan Ellis)說。他指出了中國對巴拿馬運河等運輸通道的依賴。
Some political leaders in both Brazil and Peru have welcomed the Chinese proposal, gauging its seriousness by the fact that Li Keqiang, the Chinese prime minister, personally promoted the project while visiting both countries in May. Chinese officials agreed to deliver a feasibility report in about a year.
在巴西和祕魯，一些政治領袖對中國的提議表示歡迎。他們是根據中國總理李克強在5月訪問兩國期間親自促進該項目這個事實，來判斷中方的認真程度的。中國官員同意在大約一年後拿出一份可行性報告。
The governors of three states in the Brazilian Amazon that the railroad would traverse are voicing support for the railway. But even some who stand to benefit from it acknowledge the vexing array of challenges.
鐵路將貫穿巴西亞馬孫地區的三個州。這三個州的州長均表示支持該項目。但就連一些很可能會從中受益的人也承認，存在諸多令人心煩的挑戰。
“I don’t want to be pessimistic about their railroad, but it will be very hard,” said Marino Franz, a former mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde.
“對他們這條鐵路，我不想表現得悲觀，但這件事的確會很難，”前貝爾德河畔盧卡斯市長馬裏諾·弗朗茨(Marino Franz)說。
Powerful political and business figures, whose river ports and soybean processing centers could be threatened by the railway, are already blasting the Chinese venture.
一些有權勢的政界和商界人物已經在炮轟中國這個項目了。他們的河港和大豆加工中心可能會受到鐵路的威脅。
“I don’t believe in it,” Senator Blairo Maggi, a soybean farmer and former governor of Mato Grosso State told his counterparts in the Senate.
“我不相信這個項目，”參議員布萊羅·馬吉(Blairo Maggi)在參議院對自己的同僚說。他是一名大豆農場主，曾擔任馬託格羅索州的州長。
Of course, other Chinese infrastructure projects have made progress in Latin America, helping reshape the region. In Argentina, where Chinese companies are upgrading a dilapidated cargo network, imports of railroad materials and trains from China reached around $700 million in 2014, up from $50 million in 2011. In Ecuador, state-owned Chinese banks have already put nearly $11 billion into the country, building a dam, roads, highways, bridges, and hospitals.
當然，中國在拉美的其他基礎設施項目已取得進展，幫助重塑了該地區。在阿根廷，中國公司正在對破敗的貨運網絡進行升級，從中國進口鐵路材料和火車的貿易額，從2011年的5000萬美元，增加到了2014年的約7億美元。在厄瓜多爾，中國的國有銀行已向該國投入近110億美元，用於修建大壩、高速公路、橋樑和醫院。
Some in Brazil argue that Chinese companies are learning from their successes and setbacks. Here in Brazil, Sinopec, the Chinese energy producer, built a $1.3 billion gas pipeline. Now Brazilian officials are investigating claims of gross overbilling in its construction.
一些巴西人稱，中國公司正在吸取經驗和教訓。在巴西，中國能源生產商中國石化投資13億美元，修建了一條輸氣管道。眼下，巴西官員正在調查施工過程中存在嚴重的虛開賬單現象的說法。
With Brazil’s economy ailing, some powerful officials are signaling that they may be willing to accept China’s proposal, while also suggesting that the railway could be pursued with a less ambitious, piecemeal approach.
在巴西經濟不景氣的情況下，一些有影響力的官員釋放的信號表明，他們可能願意接受中國的提議。但他們也表示，可以用不那麼野心勃勃的、循序漸進的方式對待該鐵路項目。
“The Twin-Ocean Railway could be done in parts,” Nelson Barbosa, Brazil’s planning minister, said in testimony before the Senate, emphasizing in particular two stretches where farming groups have clamored for railroads.
“兩洋鐵路可以分部分進行，”巴西規劃部長尼爾森·巴博薩(Nelson Barbosa)在參議院作證時說。他特別強調了兩個路段。在那兩個地區，農業團體極力支持修建鐵路。
Mr. Gallagher said the railway ranks among the largest infrastructure projects in Latin America in the last century.
加拉格爾稱，這個鐵路項目可謂是過去一個世紀里拉美地區最大的基礎設施項目之一。
“China will have to race up the learning curve for this to succeed,” he said. “If the Chinese can’t make this happen, then no one can.”
“要想成功，中國必須加快學習步伐，”他說。“如果中國做不成，那就沒人能做成了。”
