歐洲進口美國天然氣難以嚇倒普京

Calls are Mounting for the US to export shale gas to Europe to help free the continent from Russian influence. Observers are right to focus on Moscow’s Energy leverage but they are prescribing the wrong response. The most useful thing that Europe could import is not American gas itself but the open economic model that has enabled the US natural gas industry to thrive.

目前有越來越多的人呼籲美國向歐洲出口頁岩氣，以幫助歐洲擺脫俄羅斯的影響力。觀察人士關注俄羅斯政府的能源影響力並沒有錯，但他們拿出的解決方案錯了。歐洲可以從美國引進的最有用的東西不是頁岩氣本身，而是美國開放的經濟模式。美國的天然氣行業正是憑藉這種模式實現了蓬勃發展。

Europe buys nearly 30 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. This has led to concern that President Vladimir Putin might turn off a few taps to gain leverage in the confrontation with Ukraine. For now, these fears are overblown – among other things, Europe has a lot of natural gas in storage – but the fundamental worry is well founded.

歐洲近30%的天然氣從俄羅斯進口。這導致有些人擔心，在烏克蘭問題上的對峙中，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)可能會關掉幾個閥門，藉此取得優勢。就目前而言，他們有些過慮了，至少，歐洲還有大量天然氣庫存，但在根本層面上，這種擔憂很有道理。

Yet US natural gas exports would do little to reduce Russian leverage. They cannot replace Russian gas in the current crisis since it will be more than a year until any US export terminals are built. Even once these facilities are up and running, the economics of sending shale gas to Europe are unlikely to make much sense. Once the cost of shipping is included, Russian gas is far cheaper; Moscow’s share of the European market is not likely to change much. Instead, American gas will flow mainly to Asia.

不過，美國向歐洲出口天然氣，對削弱俄羅斯的影響力起不到多少作用。美國的天然氣出口碼頭要一年多才能建好，因此美國天然氣無法在本次危機中取代俄羅斯天然氣。即便當相關設施建好、並投入運營，將頁岩氣從美國運送至歐洲也很可能不划算。考慮運輸成本因素，俄羅斯的天然氣會便宜得多，因此其在歐洲市場所佔份額不太可能發生太大改變。相反，美國出口的天然氣將主要運往亞洲。

This is not to say that US exports would not hurt Mr Putin. They would push down the price of gas in Europe, which is one of the many reasons why they should be allowed. But it is fanciful to suppose that they could provide a decisive edge against Moscow in a future crisis.

這並不意味着美國向歐洲出口天然氣不會對普京造成損害。允許美國向歐洲出口天然氣有許多理由，其中之一是，美國出口的天然氣會壓低歐洲的天然氣價格。但我們不應幻想，在未來的危機中，從美國進口的天然氣能讓歐洲對俄羅斯擁有一項決定性優勢。

Europe’s politicians should instead put their energy into copying the successful US policies that laid the groundwork for a spectacular boom in natural gas production. This might allow Europeans to produce more gas at home instead of buying it from Russia. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that Europe has 598tn cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas, roughly half as much as the US. Yet almost none of this is being exploited. In part, that is because the continent is playing catch-up with a boom that started elsewhere. But there are deeper reasons, too. Many European countries have banned shale gas production. Those that allow development have slapped on taxes and government royalties that do much to deter it.

相反，歐洲政界人士應把精力投入到借鑑美國的成功政策上，這些政策爲美國令人矚目的天然氣生產大繁榮奠定了基礎。通過借鑑美國的這些政策，歐洲或許能自己生產更多天然氣，從而減少向俄羅斯購買。美國能源情報署(US Energy Information Administration)估計，歐洲理論上可開採的頁岩氣儲量有598萬億立方英尺，大約爲美國的一半。但歐洲的頁岩氣幾乎一點都未得到開採。這部分緣於歐洲在這場始於美國的繁榮中仍在追趕，但還有一些深層次原因。許多歐洲國家禁止開採頁岩氣。允許開採頁岩氣的國家則設定了針對頁岩氣開發的稅和政府許可費，大大遏制了頁岩氣的開採。

The US has lessons to offer on both fronts. Most gas-rich US states have rejected calls to prohibit shale gas production; instead, they have allowed development subject to robust environmental safeguards. The specifics vary from state to state. In Texas, a longtime energy producer, the industry has won public acceptance with less oversight than elsewhere. In Ohio or Illinois, which are new to the natural gas game, regulation is more stringent. Europeans would be wise to draw lessons from US states that have struck a balance between development and the environment.

在這兩方面，美國都有可供借鑑的經驗。美國大多數頁岩氣豐富的州都拒絕了禁止頁岩氣開採的呼聲；相反，這些州要求開發者在開採過程中採取健全的環保措施。各州的具體要求有所不同。在德克薩斯這個長期的能源大州，頁岩氣行業的監管較其他地方更寬鬆，但仍獲得公衆接受。在較晚纔開始開採頁岩氣的俄亥俄州和伊利諾伊州，監管更爲嚴格。美國許多州在發展和環保之間取得了平衡，對歐洲而言，從美國的這些州汲取經驗是明智之舉。

The American shale gas industry has flourished on private land, where property owners are susceptible to commercial incentives. In Europe, mineral rights are generally publicly owned and unlikely to be privatised. Still, the more basic lessons – that government policy should be careful not to undermine the economics of gas development, and that care should be taken to ensure that local communities benefit from development – should be listened to carefully.

美國頁岩氣行業在私有土地上發展得很好，土地的私人所有者比較容易受商業利益誘惑。在歐洲，礦產權一般爲公有，而且不太可能私有化。不過，有兩條基本經驗仍值得歐洲好好借鑑：一、政府制定政策時應小心，不要讓頁岩氣開發變得無利可圖；二、應努力確保當地社會能從頁岩氣開發中獲益。

The US can also export lessons about gas markets. The US market responds efficiently to disruptions because regulators insist on open access to infrastructure such as pipelines, and enforce standards of transparency that ensure market participants are adequately informed. Europe has moved in this direction. Unlike the US, it needs to protect itself against foreign producers that might manipulate liberalised markets. Still, it has room to improve.

美國的天然氣市場也有可借鑑之處。美國的天然氣市場能高效率地對中斷做出反應，因爲監管機構堅持要求開放利用輸氣管道等基礎設施，並執行各種透明度標準，以確保市場參與者能充分知情。歐洲已在這個方向上有所行動。當然，與美國不同，歐洲必須保護自己的自由市場不受外國生產者操縱。可話說回來，歐洲在這方面仍有改進空間。

Focusing on steps such as these may be less attractive than talking up US natural gas exports: it denies America a chance to brag about its strategic influence and forces Europeans to grapple with their own political problems. The biggest opportunity to improve European security, though, comes from exporting the US model, not selling American gas.

與吹噓美國向歐洲出口天然氣的作用相比，關注於這些措施或許不那麼吸引人：既剝奪了美國誇耀自身戰略影響力的機會，又迫使歐洲人糾結於自身的政治問題。不過，最有可能提高歐洲能源安全的方法，不是從美國進口天然氣，而是進口美國的模式。