美國天然氣在中國不愁銷路

A rebound in China’s greenhouse gas emissions could be good news for US LNG exporters. The decline in China’s coal consumption for three consecutive years had fuelled hopes that the country’s carbon dioxide emissions might already have peaked in 2016. But coal use has been rebounding this year, and the Global Carbon Project has estimated that China’s greenhouse gas emissions for 2017 will be up about 3.5 per cent from last year.

中國溫室氣體排放量反彈對美國液化天然氣(LNG)出口商來說或許是好消息。中國煤炭消費量連續三年下降曾讓人們生出這樣的希望：中國的二氧化碳排放量或許已在2016年達到峯值。但今年以來中國的煤炭消費量一直在反彈，全球碳計劃(GCP)估計，2017年中國的溫室氣體排放量將比去年增加約3.5%。

Using gas instead of coal can be a way to cut those emissions, so long as leaks of methane on the route from well to burner are low, and it also helps cut local air pollution, which is a more immediate imperative. As a result, China is expected to be the world’s most important market for future gas demand growth, and last week, President Donald Trump was accompanied on his visit to China by US companies looking for a piece of the action.

只要從開採到使用的過程中甲烷泄漏量較低，“煤改氣”就是減少溫室氣體排放的一種有用方式，而且還有助於減少當地的空氣污染，後者是一項更加迫在眉睫的任務。因此，就未來天然氣需求增長來說，中國預計將成爲全球最重要的市場。希望從中分一杯羹的美國企業上週陪同美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)訪問了中國。

Mr Trump was perhaps not the best salesman for the environmental benefits of US gas, given that in June he announced his plan to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, and justified the move by arguing that China “can do whatever they want for 13 years”. Still, some US Energy companies were able to come away from the trip with agreements, including Cheniere Energy, which exports LNG from Louisiana, and the Alaska Gasline Development Corp, the state-owned company that hopes to do the same from southern Alaska. Gas infrastructure was also a focus for the massive $83.7bn investment in West Virginia that the state said was planned by China Energy Investment Corp.

說到使用美國天然氣在環境方面的益處，特朗普或許並不是最佳推銷員，因爲他在6月宣佈了美國退出《巴黎氣候協定》的計劃，而且他爲此舉辯護的理由是，中國可以“在未來13年爲所欲爲”。儘管如此，一些美國能源公司還是利用此次訪問達成了協議，包括從路易斯安那州出口LNG的Cheniere Energy，以及希望從阿拉斯加州南部輸出LNG的國有的Alaska Gasline Development Corp。天然氣基礎設施也是中國國家能源投資集團(China Energy investment Corp)對西弗吉尼亞州837億美元投資計劃的一個重點。

It is easy to be sceptical about those agreements, which supposedly added up to a total value of more than $250bn, and many people were. Some of the touted deals were re-announcements of existing contracts, and the big new energy agreements were non-binding memorandums of understanding. Alaska LNG, for example, is a complex and expensive project, with a cost that has been estimated at up to $65bn, and the agreement between Sinopec and the Alaska Gasline Development Corp to work together on the plan certainly does not guarantee that it will go ahead. As Josephine Mason and Chen Aizhu of Reuters pointed out, Chinese LNG buyers have plenty of other potential suppliers that they could turn to. But Mr Xi is keen to show leadership on addressing the threat of climate change, and some genuine new contracts to buy American gas seem likely to be on the way in the next year or so.

人們很容易對這些據稱總價值超過2500億美元的協議產生質疑，事實上很多人都抱着懷疑態度。其中一些交易只是再次宣佈了已有合同，新簽署的大型能源協議則是不具約束力的諒解備忘錄。例如，阿拉斯加州LNG項目是一個複雜且成本高昂的項目，據估計成本最高將達到650億美元，中國石化(Sinopec)與Gasline Development Corp之間的合作開發協議當然無法保證這一計劃順利進行。正如路透社(Reuters)的約瑟芬?梅森(Josephine Mason)和陳愛珠指出的，中國的LNG買家有很多其他的潛在供應商可以選擇。但習近平急於在應對氣候變化威脅方面展現領導力，估計在明後年很可能達成一些購買美國天然氣的真正的新合約。

Demand for US LNG could be helped by one emerging component of China’s climate strategy, a long-planned national system for trading carbon emissions, which is now close to being launched, the Financial Times reported. The EU’s emissions trading scheme has been widely criticised for failing to do enough to spur adequate cuts in greenhouse gases, but last week the European Parliament and European Council reached what was described as a “landmark” agreement to tighten the supply of allowances after 2020. In a sign of the consequences of an ample supply of allowances and low carbon prices, Germany’s energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to rise for a second consecutive year in 2017. The government said last month it expected to miss its targets for cutting emissions by 2020.

中國氣候戰略中的一個新組成部分將有助於擴大對美國LNG的需求，那就是規劃已久的碳排放交易國家體系。據英國《金融時報》報道，這個機制已接近要推出了。歐盟的碳排放交易計劃因未能刺激溫室氣體大幅減排而廣受批評，但歐洲議會(European Parliament)和歐洲理事會(European Council)上週達成了一項被認爲具有“里程碑意義”的協議，即同意在2020年以後縮減補貼。2017年德國與能源相關的二氧化碳排放量預計將連續第二年上升，這就是慷慨補貼和碳價較低的結果。德國政府上月表示，預計無法在2020年實現本國的減排目標。

Emissions trading was also in the news in the US last week, as a result of the Democratic party’s successes in state elections. The FT’s Gregory Meyer pointed out that the states of New Jersey and Virginia were on course to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative carbon market, and Virginia is expected to set out a new climate plan next week.

上週美國也出現了碳排放交易方面的新聞，這是民主黨在州選舉中獲得成功的結果。英國《金融時報》的格雷戈裏?梅耶(Gregory Meyer)指出，新澤西州和弗吉尼亞州有望加入“區域溫室氣體減排行動”(Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative)的碳市場，預計弗吉尼亞州將於下週公佈新的氣候計劃。

China’s success in clearing the air in Beijing has sparked envy in Delhi, where pollution “literally went off the charts” last week, hitting the maximum reading on the US embassy’s air quality index. Shivam Vij for Quartz described the deadly smog as “a perfect example of everything that’s wrong with India”.

中國在清潔北京空氣方面的成就讓德里嫉妒，上週德里的污染“真的爆表了”，達到了美國大使館空氣質量指數的最高值。Quartz的希瓦姆?維傑(Shivam Vij)稱這場致命的霧霾是“印度所有弊端的一個完美例證”。

The International Energy Agency held its ministerial meeting in Paris and launched a new initiative to help emerging economies with “clean energy transitions”. It also held a summit with government officials and energy industry leaders on carbon capture. The most interesting news out of the IEA last week, though, was its report on “digitalisation” in the industry. As Tsvetana Paraskova pointed out for , technologies including advanced data analytics are already driving profound changes for energy companies.

國際能源署(IEA)在巴黎召開了部長級會議，並出臺了一項新舉措，以幫助新興經濟體實現“向清潔能源的轉變”，它還舉行有各國政府官員和能源行業領袖出席的碳捕集峯會。不過上週國際能源署最有趣的消息是其發佈了行業“數字化”報告。正如茨韋塔納?帕拉斯科娃(Tsvetana Paraskova)在上指出，包括先進的數據分析在內，衆多技術已經在推動能源公司展開深刻變革。

Intrigue continues to grip Saudi Arabia following the sweep of princes, government officials and business executives on corruption charges ordered by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last weekend. The FT has helpfully gathered its coverage of the unfolding drama on a single page.

繼上週末在穆罕默德?本?薩勒曼王儲(Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman)命令下，沙特多位王子、政府官員和企業高管受到腐敗指控，陰謀氣氛依然籠罩着這個國家。英國《金融時報》用單獨的一個頁面集中呈現了這場正在上演的大戲的相關報道。

And finally: I have never seen the Netflix show Stranger Things, but my children love it. Matt Chester wrote an entertaining post on his energy and policy blog about the significance of the role played by the fictional US Department of Energy in the series, and parallels with the department’s real-life history.

最後：我沒看過Netflix的《怪奇物語》(Stranger Things)，不過我的孩子們喜歡這部劇。馬特?切斯特(Matt Chester)在他的能源與政策博客上寫了一篇有趣的文章，談論了這部劇中的美國能源部所扮演角色的重要性，以及虛構情節與該部門真實歷史的相似之處。