阿根廷與中國簽署貨幣互換與基建融資協議

Argentina and China signed multibillion-dollar infrastructure-financing and currency-swap deals on Friday during a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, another sign of the Asian country's growing influence in Latin America.

在中國國家主席習近平訪問阿根廷期間，阿根廷與中國簽署了價值數十億美元的基建融資和貨幣互換協議。這是中國在拉美擴大影響力的又一個跡象。

The two governments approved 20 agreements, including a 70 billion yuan currency swap between central banks, equivalent to about $11 billion.

兩國共簽訂了20項協議，其中包括兩國央行簽署的人民幣700億元（相當於約110億美元）貨幣互換協議。

The deals are a rare source of positive news for President Cristina Kirchner's administration, which is struggling with a recession, high inflation, and a possible debt default at the end of the Month. But analysts are skeptical the agreements will provide much relief to Argentina's depleted foreign-currency reserves, which the country uses to pay its creditors and defend the Argentine peso.

這些協議對阿根廷總統克里斯蒂娜•基什內爾(Cristina Kirchner)領導的政府來說是鮮有的好消息。眼下阿根廷政府正在艱難應對經濟衰退和高通脹局面，月底還面臨債務違約風險。但對於這些協議將在多大程度上緩解阿根廷外匯儲備的枯竭問題，分析師們持懷疑態度。目前該國政府正動用外匯儲備來償付債務、捍衛阿根廷比索。

The swap doesn't resolve the underlying economic problems that are draining reserves nor can the yuan be converted into other currencies, says Alberto Ramos, senior Latin America economist for Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)拉美高級經濟學家拉莫斯(Alberto Ramos)說，貨幣互換協議無法解決那些正在抽走外匯儲備的深層次經濟問題，再說，人民幣也無法直接兌換成其他貨幣。

'If your house is on fire it's not like buying more insurance will solve the problem. You need to address the main causes of the fire,' Mr. Ramos said.

拉莫斯說，如果你家房子着火了，買再多保險也無法解決問題，當務之急是解決着火的原因。

Reserves now stand at almost $30 billion, their lowest since November 2006.

阿根廷目前的外匯儲備規模爲近300億美元，爲2006年11月以來最低水平。

By most measures, Argentina's reserves are very low compared with other major Latin American countries, said Claudio Loser, an Argentine economist and former Western Hemisphere director at the International Monetary Fund.

阿根廷經濟學家、前國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, 簡稱IMF)西半球部門(Western Hemisphere)主管洛瑟(Claudio Loser)說，按大多數標準衡量，阿根廷外匯儲備規模相比其他主要拉美國家已經顯得非常低。

China has also agreed to lend Argentina $2.1 billion to buy railroad equipment, and finance the construction of hydroelectric dams in southern Argentina to the tune of $4.7 billion, Argentina's Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said.

阿根廷內閣首席部長豪爾赫•卡皮塔尼奇(Jorge Capitanich)稱，中國還同意借給阿根廷21億美元用於採購鐵路設備，同時將提供47億美元貸款幫助阿根廷在南部修建水電大壩。

Bedeviled by foreign-currency shortages at home and unable to raise money by selling bonds abroad, Argentina has struggled to find funding alternatives for capital-intensive projects.

由於缺少外匯儲備，加上外債發行困難，阿根廷一直難以爲資本密集型項目找到替代融資辦法。

Mr. Xi arrived in Buenos Aires on Friday following a summit in Brazil of Latin American and the Brics nations, whose members are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. China and Brazil announced a flurry of deals Thursday, ranging from passenger-jet sales to power-grid investments.

在參加完巴西舉行的拉美國家領導人會晤和金磚國家（巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非）峯會後，習近平上週五抵達了布宜諾斯艾利斯。中國和巴西上週四宣佈了從客機採購到電網投資等一系列協議。

In the last decade, China's demand for Argentine farm products such as soyoil and soymeal has cemented its place as Argentina's No. 2 trading partner after neighboring Brazil. Bilateral trade rose to $17.3 billion last year, although heavily in favor of China. Argentina's trade deficit with the Asian country widened 9% from the previous year to $5.4 billion in 2013.

過去十年，對阿根廷豆油和豆粕等農產品的需求鞏固了中國作爲阿根廷第二大貿易伙伴國的地位（阿根廷最大的貿易伙伴是巴西）。去年中阿雙邊貿易額升至173億美元，儘管中國對阿根廷存在巨大順差。去年阿根廷對中國的貿易逆差較上一年擴大9%至54億美元。

Sino-Argentine ties run deeper than the soy that fattens Chinese hogs. Chinese firms have made significant investments in Argentine banking, mining, oil and agriculture in recent years. Argentina is also home to a thriving Chinese immigrant community, which now accounts for a significant share of supermarket sales in Buenos Aires.

中國從阿根廷進口用於豬飼料的大豆，但這遠非中阿關係的全部內容。在阿根廷的銀行、礦業、石油和農業等領域，中國企業近年來都進行了相當可觀的投資。阿根廷的中國移民也越來越多，布宜諾斯艾利斯超市銷售額中有很大一部份是中國移民貢獻的。

Mr. Xi's visit is shaping up to be far more beneficial for the Kirchner administration than Russian President Vladimir Putin's brief stop in Buenos Aires on July 12. Mr. Putin's visit yielded agreements in the areas of nuclear energy, communications and judicial cooperation, but little in the way of actual money.

相比7月12日俄羅斯總統普京(Vladimir Putin)的短暫訪問，看起來習近平此次訪問給基什內爾政府帶來的好處要大得多。普京在訪問期間與阿根廷在和能源、通訊以及司法合作領域達成了一系列協議，但在提供實際資金方面成果寥寥。

Argentina needs all the help it can get in the months ahead. Even a recession hasn't been enough to tame galloping consumer prices. Mrs. Kirchner's reliance on the printing of money to finance spending has spawned one of the highest inflation rates in the world, which some private-sector forecasts put as high as 40%.

未來幾個月，阿根廷將竭盡所能籌措資金。即便是經濟衰退也不足以緩和阿根廷國內的物價飆升。基什內爾政府依靠印鈔爲財政開支提供資金的做法催生了高通脹，使阿根廷成爲全球通脹率最高的國家之一。一些私營部門經濟學家預計未來阿根廷的通脹率將高達40%。

Dollar shortages and inflation have taken a toll on the economy. The Kirchner administration is expected to report that gross domestic product shrank 0.7% this year, according to the latest survey of analysts by FocusEconomics.

美元供應短缺和高通脹嚴重損害了阿根廷經濟。FocusEconomics最新調查顯示，分析師們預計基什內爾政府將公佈今年阿根廷國內生產總值(GDP)萎縮0.7%。

Mrs. Kirchner also has less than two weeks to resolve a high-stakes dispute over unpaid debts or risk seeing her country default for a second time in 13 years.

基什內爾還必須在兩週不到的時間裏解決一場圍繞未償債務的高風險糾紛，否則，阿根廷將面臨13年來第二次債務違約。

A U.S. judge has barred Argentina from paying its current bonds unless it also pays hedge funds that have sued to collect on debt affected by the country's 2001 default. Argentina has until July 30 to get some $539 million in interest payments to investors or will likely be declared in default.

一名美國法官裁定，禁止阿根廷償付現有國債，除非它支付一批對衝基金欠款。這批對衝基金此前起訴阿根廷政府，要求其賠償2001年債務違約給它們帶來的投資損失。阿根廷需要在7月30日之前向投資者支付約5.39億美元的債務利息，否則，政府可能被宣佈違約。

A default would make the recession worse, but nothing like the 2001 crisis, which ranked as 'Argentina's worst recession' since the 1930s, Mr. Loser said.

洛瑟說，債務違約將加深阿根廷的經濟衰退，但不會像2001年危機時那樣嚴重，當時阿根廷經濟陷入了上世紀30年代以來最嚴重的衰退。