美國共和黨缺少里根式候選人
Donald Trump is so fond of the word “winner” that he even applies it to pieces of chicken. Having lunch with the FT a couple of years ago, the Mogul-turned-politician pointed his interviewer towards a particularly succulent portion and declared: “That piece looks like a winner.”
唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)特別喜歡說“贏”，他甚至把它用在了雞肉上。兩年前在與英國《金融時報》記者共進午餐時，這位當過地產大亨、後轉行從政的名人指着一塊特別肥嫩的雞肉對採訪他的記者說：“這一塊看上去贏了。”
In Mr Trump’s world, the biggest winner of all is, of course, The Donald himself. His campaign for the Republican nomination has been based around the claim that: “I’m very good at winning. I believe in winning.” It is a remarkably successful pitch. Most opinion polls still show Mr Trump leading the race to be the Republican nominee.
當然，在特朗普的世界裏，最有希望贏的那個人是他自己。他爭奪共和黨總統候選人提名的選戰建立在這種說法的基礎上：“我非常擅長贏。我相信贏。”這是一段非常成功的宣傳說辭。多數民調仍顯示，特朗普在共和黨提名爭奪戰中處於領先地位。
All this chest-thumping is revealing. For Mr Trump’s claim to have magical winning properties appeals precisely to those Americans who fear that they and their country are turning into losers. In a typical rhetorical flourish, Mr Trump once argued that America is “going down fast. We can’t do anything right. We’re a laughing stock all over the world.” (The fear that people are laughing at you is, of course, a classic loser’s trait.)
這種拍着胸膛保證的做法很能說明問題，因爲特朗普宣稱擁有神奇的贏的能力，這種宣傳恰恰迎合了那些擔心他們自己和他們的國家正變成輸家的美國人的心理。特朗普曾以他典型的誇張語氣提出，美國正“快速衰落。我們什麼都做不對。我們正成爲全世界的笑柄”。（擔心正在被人嘲笑當然正是一種典型的輸家特徵。）
All the leading Republican contenders argue that America is going to the dogs, even if they sometimes differ on the details. Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon, who is challenging Mr Trump for the leading position in the polls, has even claimed that “political correctness” means that America is now “very much like Nazi Germany”.
所有領先的共和黨參選人都辯稱，美國正在走下坡路，儘管他們有時在具體內容上存在分歧。在民調中對特朗普的領先地位構成挑戰的神經外科醫生本慍森(Ben Carson)甚至宣稱，“政治正確性”意味着美國現在“非常像納粹德國”。
People who vote Republican still tend to be richer than Democrats, so all this despair in Republican ranks is a little surprising. But the US is changing in ways that are clearly making much of the party’s base fearful and insecure.
投票給共和黨的選民仍往往比民主黨選民更富有，因此共和黨各階層的這種絕望情緒有些讓人意外。但美國正在發生的一些變化，顯然讓共和黨很多選民感到擔心和不安。
There are four big changes that seem to underpin Republican insecurity: the first is ethnic, the second is social, the third is economic and the fourth is a shift in America’s global position.
有4個重大變化似乎是共和黨不安全感的來源：第一是種族變化，第二是社會變化，第三是經濟變化，第四是美國全球地位的變化。
Just 39 per cent of white Americans voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and yet the president was easily re-elected, after gaining the support of 90 per cent of minority voters. Whites still make up 72 per cent of the electorate, but America is changing fast. According to the US Census Bureau, by 2020 “more than half the nation’s children will be part of a minority race or ethnic group”, with Hispanics the largest single minority group. By 2043 the US will be “majority-minority”, with whites less than 50 per cent of the population. Mr Trump’s rhetoric appeals to white voters who are scared by this change. He has promised to deport all 11m illegal immigrants in the US and to build a giant wall along the Mexican border.
2012年，只有39%的美國白人投票支持巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)，而在贏得90%少數族裔選民支持後，奧巴馬輕鬆連任。美國白人仍然佔到美國選民總數的72%，但美國正迅速發生變化。根據美國人口普查局(US Census Bureau)的數據，到2020年，“超過一半的美國兒童將屬於少數種族或族裔”，拉美裔將成爲最大單一少數族裔羣體。到2043年，美國將變成“少數族裔占人口大多數”的國家，白人所佔比例將低於一半。特朗普的言論迎合了那些害怕這種變化的白人選民的心理。他承諾將把美國1100萬非法移民全部驅逐出境，並在墨西哥邊界砌起一道巨型隔離牆。
A fear of social change in the US has also long animated religious conservatives, who are an important part of the Republican base and are particularly strong supporters of Mr Carson. The religious right thinks that the legalisation of abortion set America on the path to perdition and this cultural pessimism has been further stirred by the legalisation of gay marriage.
長期以來，對美國社會變化的擔憂也激起了宗教保守派的熱情，他們是共和黨選民基礎的重要組成部分，是卡森尤爲熱情的支持者。宗教右翼人士認爲，墮胎合法化將讓美國走上滅亡之路，同性戀婚姻合法化則進一步激發了這種文化悲觀主義論調。
With real wages stagnant for many Americans, including the middle-class, the Republicans have also begun to adopt the rhetoric of economic insecurity. Mr Trump bashes hedge-fund managers. Even Ted Cruz, who is fighting hard to be the most rightwing candidate, has complained that Mr Obama’s economic policies have only benefited the richest 1 per cent of Americans.
由於很多美國人（包括中產階級）的實際薪資停滯不前，共和黨人還開始宣揚經濟方面的不安全感。特朗普抨擊對衝基金經理。甚至連努力成爲最右翼候選人的特德克魯茲(Ted Cruz)也不滿地指出，奧巴馬的經濟政策只讓美國最富有的1%人羣受益。
Mixed in with all this domestic insecurity is a pervasive sense that America itself is becoming less powerful. The idea that some erosion in its global strength is inevitable, given the rise of China, gets short shrift in the Republican debate. Instead all setbacks, real and imagined, are attributed to Mr Obama’s “weakness”.
摻雜在這種國內不安全感之中的是一種普遍存在的感覺：美國的實力正在下滑。認爲鑑於中國的崛起，美國的全球實力難免受到一定削弱的觀點，在共和黨的辯論中受到忽略。所有的挫折（不管是真實的還是想象中的）都被歸咎於奧巴馬的“軟弱”。
All the Republican candidates seem to want to show a more aggressive face to the world. Carly Fiorina, who is sometimes touted as a voice of moderation, has said of President Vladimir Putin of Russia: “I wouldn’t talk to him at all... I would do immediately, I would begin rebuilding the Sixth Fleet...I would also conduct military exercises in the Baltic states.” This kind of “strong” talk is so strident that it risks looking weak.
共和黨的所有候選人都希望向世界展示出更咄咄逼人的形象。有時被捧爲溫和派代言人的卡莉菲奧里納(Carly Fiorina)在談到俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)時表示：“我根本不會跟他談……我會馬上做什麼？我會開始重建第六艦隊(Sixth Fleet)……我還會在波羅的海國家開展軍事演習。”這類“強硬”言論如此過激，以至於這番話有顯得軟弱的風險。
The key question for the Republicans is whether it is possible to put together a coalition of “losers” that could actually win. The polls provide some encouragement. A Reuters survey a few days ago found that 59 per cent of Americans think their country is on the “wrong track”, compared to just 24 per cent who think it is heading in the right direction.
共和黨的一個關鍵問題是，能否將“輸家”組織成一個能夠真正取勝的聯盟。民調結果令人鼓舞。路透(Reuters)幾天前的一項調查顯示，59%的美國人認爲美國正走在“錯誤的軌道”上，只有24%的美國人認爲美國正在朝正確的方向前進。
Yet if the Republicans base their strategy on a relentlessly gloomy message about the state of the US, they will be ignoring lessons from their own past. The great hero of the modern Republican party remains the late Ronald Reagan, who managed to combine highly conservative views with sunny optimism. President Reagan also had a self-deprecating good humour that is a million miles away from the dark warnings and shameless bragging of Mr Trump.
然而，如果共和黨人將其競選策略建立在對美國現狀傳達極其悲觀的信號上，他們將忽視他們自己過去的經驗。現代共和黨的偉大英雄仍是已故的羅納德里根(Ronald Reagan)，他曾成功地將極度保守的觀點與陽光向上的樂觀主義結合在一起。里根還具備自嘲的幽默感，特朗普憂鬱的警告與無恥的自誇與里根相差十萬八千里。
The modern Republican party needs a Reagan-like candidate who can say, “our best days lie ahead” and sound like he means it. In a crowded but unconvincing field, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has done the best job of condemning the Obama years, without sounding angry or unhinged. He is also Hispanic, which may go some way to undoing his party’s massive disadvantage among minority voters. As the Republicans search for a candidate who “looks like a winner”, Senator Rubio increasingly looks like their best bet.
現代共和黨需要里根那樣的候選人，可以告訴世人“我們最好的日子在前頭”，而且聽上去不是說着玩的。在這個候選人衆多但說服力欠缺的戰場上，佛羅里達州參議員馬爾科脠比奧(Marco Rubio)在譴責奧巴馬執政期方面功勳卓著，而且他聽上去不憤怒、也不神經。他也是拉美裔，這或許能夠在某種程度上消除共和黨在少數族裔選民中的巨大劣勢。在共和黨尋找“看上去能贏”的候選人之際，參議員魯比奧看上去越來越像是他們的最佳押注對象。
