特朗普與勒龐聯手發動“大西洋反革命”?

France and the US both regard themselves as exceptional nations. But their history has often followed a similar pattern. The American revolution of 1775-83 was swiftly followed by the French revolution of 1789 — leading some historians to talk of the late 18th century as the period of the “Atlantic revolutions”.

法國和美國都自視爲例外國家。但他們的歷史經常出現相似的一幕。繼1775-83年美國革命後，法國很快就爆發了1789年大革命，以致一些歷史學家將18世紀晚期稱爲“大西洋革命”時期。

Will future historians one day be writing about the “Atlantic counter-revolutions” of the early 21st century? It could happen if the election of Donald Trump as president of the US last November is followed by the election of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, as president of France this May.

未來的歷史學家某一天會撰寫關於21世紀初“大西洋反革命”的歷史嗎？這有可能，如果繼唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)去年11月當選美國總統之後，法國極右翼國民陣線(National Front)領導人馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)今年5月贏得法國總統大選的話。

The Trump and Le Pen movements share many ideas — hostility to Islam, nationalism, populism, protectionism, support for Brexit, sympathy for Russia and hatred of the mainstream media. Both leaders want to turn the clock back to a more conservative era, before globalisation and multiculturalism, by staging a counter-revolution against the hated “liberal establishment”.

特朗普與勒龐的政治運動擁有許多共同理念——敵視伊斯蘭教；信奉民族主義、民粹主義、保護主義；支持英國退歐；同情俄羅斯；憎惡主流媒體。兩位領導人都希望通過對令人厭惡的“自由建制派”發動一場反革命，將本國帶回全球化和多元文化主義之前的那個更爲保守的時代。

Ms Le Pen hailed Mr Trump’s victory as the dawn of a new age. And some of Mr Trump’s close advisers, such as Stephen Bannon, have cultivated close links with the European far right.

勒龐盛讚特朗普勝選爲一個新時代的開始。特朗普身邊一些關係密切的顧問——如斯蒂芬?班農(Stephen Bannon)——已與歐洲極右勢力建立了緊密聯繫。

For political reasons, Ms Le Pen has to handle the Trump connection with care. Opinion polls show that the new US president is unpopular with French voters, even those on the far right. But, on balance, the Trump victory is a plus for Ms Le Pen. It has helped to create a sense of momentum behind nationalist, anti-globalist forces in Europe. And in the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory and Brexit, French voters are less likely to fear that a Le Pen victory will stigmatise or isolate France.

出於政治原因，勒龐不得不謹慎處理與特朗普的關係。民調顯示，這位美國新總統並不受法國選民歡迎，即便是那些極右翼選民。但總的來說，特朗普勝選對勒龐而言是件好事，有助於在歐洲的民族主義、反全球化勢力背後產生一種動力感。英國公投決定退歐、特朗普勝選之後，法國選民沒那麼擔憂勒龐勝選會讓法國蒙羞或被孤立了。

The economic and social circumstances in France are, if anything, more favourable for Ms Le Pen than the situation that faced Mr Trump before the election in November. The recent death toll from jihadist terrorism in France is much heavier than in the US, following three horrific attacks in 18 months, two in Paris and one in Nice.

如果有什麼不同的話，相較於特朗普在去年11月大選前面對的形勢，法國的經濟和社會環境對勒龐更爲有利。聖戰恐怖主義近期在法國造成的死亡人數比美國要嚴重得多——過去18個月法國遭受了3次可怕的襲擊，兩次發生在巴黎，一次發生在尼斯。

Tensions between the Muslim minority and the wider society are much more intense in France than in the US. Unemployment is also higher in France than in America and economic growth is slower. France, unlike the US, is chafing under budgetary constraints imposed by the EU — giving extra force to anxiety about loss of sovereignty.

法國穆斯林少數族羣與整個社會之間的關係比美國要緊張得多。法國的失業率也比美國高，經濟增速比美國慢。與美國不同，法國還要受制於歐盟的預算限制，使民衆更有理由擔憂主權喪失。

Even better for Ms Le Pen, the French political elite seems to be going out of its way to support her charge that they are corrupt and out-of-touch. Fran?ois Fillon, the candidate of the centre-right, is now the subject of a formal investigation after employing his wife and two of his children with public funds. The great hope of the pro-European centre is Emmanuel Macron, a youthful and charismatic independent candidate. But, as a former banker educated at the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, France’s most elite institution, and passionately supported in Brussels, Mr Macron also epitomises an unpopular establishment. Ms Le Pen is a skilled television performer who will relish the televised debates that tend to be defining moments in the French presidential elections.

對勒龐更有利的是，法國的政治精英似乎正在特意支持她對他們腐敗和脫離羣衆的指控。法國中右翼陣營候選人弗朗索瓦?菲永(Fran?ois Fillon)，如今正因妻子和兩名子女“吃空餉”的醜聞接受正式調查。年輕、有魅力的獨立候選人埃曼紐爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)是親歐洲的中間陣營的最大希望。但作爲一名畢業於法國頂級精英學校國家行政學院(Ecole Nationale d'Administration)的前銀行家，而且得到布魯塞爾的熱情支持，馬克龍同樣是不受歡迎的建制派的代表。勒龐是一名嫺熟的電視表演者，她將很享受電視辯論，而電視辯論往往會成爲法國總統選舉的決定性時刻。

The one clear difference between the Trump and Le Pen movements, that could count against the French far right, is novelty. Mr Trump emerged from nowhere (politically speaking) to take over the Republican party and then the US presidency. By contrast, the National Front has been around in French politics for decades, as has the Le Pen dynasty.

特朗普與勒龐政治運動之間的一個明顯不同在於新奇性，這一點可能不利於法國極右翼。特朗普是從白手起家（從政治來說）到接管共和黨，繼而成爲美國總統。相比之下，國民陣線已在法國政壇縱橫幾十年，“勒龐王朝”也是如此。

Historically, there has been a clear ceiling to support for the far right in France — well below the 50 per cent of votes needed to grasp the presidency. Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, made it to the second round of the French presidential election in 2002, but lost heavily with just under 18 per cent support against Jacques Chirac, the incumbent. The FN did relatively well in the 2015 regional elections, but hit a ceiling of 27 per cent support in the second round of voting.

從歷史上看，極右翼在法國的支持率一直都有一個清晰的上限——遠低於贏得總統寶座所需的50%選票。2002年，馬琳的父親讓-瑪麗?勒龐(Jean-Marie Le Pen)曾成功進入第二輪法國總統選舉，但在與時任總統雅克?希拉剋(Jacques Chirac)的對決中慘敗，得票率不足18%。在2015年的地區選舉中，國民陣線表現相對較好，但在第二輪投票中止步於27%的支持上限。

Under ordinary circumstances, the structure of the presidential election would ensure that this traditional limit to FN support would be decisive. In round one, there are many candidates. The split in votes is likely to mean that Ms Le Pen comes out on top, with a score of over 25 per cent. But, in round two, when she would face a single candidate, the natural majority against the far right should come into play.

一般情況下，法國總統選舉的規程可以確保，國民陣線支持率的這一傳統上限將起決定性作用。第一輪角逐中有很多候選人。投票的分散很可能意味着勒龐將以頭名勝出，得票率超過25%。但到了第二輪，當她面對一位對手時，反對極右翼的自然多數就會開始起作用。

Until recently, this idea of a natural ceiling to the far right’s support brought considerable comfort to the French political mainstream. But a series of recent opinion polls have shown Ms Le Pen above 40 per cent support in the second round of voting. One poll last week showed her at 45 per cent against Mr Fillon; while two recent polls have showed her at 42 per cent against Mr Macron. That is touching distance, with more than two months of campaigning to go. And Ms Le Pen might be even better placed if she faces a far-left candidate in the second round, as might happen if the left unites its forces.

直到不久前，這種關於極右翼支持率有天然上限的觀點一直給法國政治主流帶來莫大的安慰。但最近一系列民調顯示，勒龐可能在第二輪投票中拿下超過40%的得票率。上週公佈的一項民調顯示，她與菲永對決的得票率爲45%；而最近的兩項民調顯示，她與馬克龍對決的得票率爲42%。這樣的支持率差距實在太小，何況還有兩個多月的競選時間。如果第二輪角逐中面對一名極左候選人（如果左翼聯合起來可能出現這種局面），勒龐甚至可能獲得更大的優勢。

Certainly, there is now a palpable nervousness among the French elite. In Paris last week, I found myself having the “which country should I emigrate to?” conversation with a couple of old friends for whom the prospect of a Le Pen victory suddenly seemed very real. With Mr Trump in power in the US and Britain leaving the EU, the emigration options seem to be narrowing.

毫無疑問，如今法國精英明顯倍感緊張。上週，我在巴黎與兩位老朋友談到了“應該移民到哪個國家？”的話題，他們都感覺勒龐勝選的前景突然似乎變得無比真實。在特朗普掌權美國、英國正在脫離歐盟的背景下，移民的選擇似乎越來越少。