CES大展覽 4K電視將成爲主流
There are a lot of next big things in the television industry. In 2010, it was 3D, which promptly flopped.
電視行業曾經推廣過許多所謂的“下一代重磅產品”。2010年，3D電視被吹得天花亂墜，然而很快就失敗了。Two years later, the talk began to focus on 4K/ Ultra High Definition (UHD) sets – and it quickly began to look like history was about to repeat itself.
兩年後，各大電視廠商又開始集中推廣4K電視，也就是超高清電視，但種種情勢似乎昭示着歷史將很快重演。
But a funny thing happened in 2014. 4K/UHD began to carve a foothold. And now experts say the technology may, in fact, live up to the hype.
但2014年出現了一個有趣的轉折。4K電視開始站穩腳跟。專家們現在表示，這項技術也許將不負衆望。
“4K is the emerging standard for TVs,” says Paul O’Donovan, principal analyst of consumer electronics at Gartner. “I think it will take some years for the annual number of 4K TVs manufactured to outnumber the total of full HD Models, but I would expect that to happen within the next 7 to 10 years.”
高德納研究公司消費電子產品首席分析師保羅o奧多諾萬表示：“4K是電視的新興標準。我認爲4K電視的年產量還需要過幾年才能超過全高清電視，但我預計這個期限不會超過7到10年。”SandlerResearch agrees, estimating 4K sets will have an annual growth rate of 106.84 percent through 2018.
研究公司SandlerResearch贊同這一觀點，該公司預計，到2018年底，4K電視市場的年均增長率將達到106.84%。Bill Lee, vice president of television product marketing at Samsung, says the television industry shipped 800,000 4K/UHD sets last year – and Samsung expects to see a four-fold increase to that number in 2015.
三星公司電視產品營銷事務副總裁比爾o李表示，4K電視去年的出貨量爲80萬臺，三星預計這一數值將在2015年翻兩番。The sets, which boast four times the visual resolution of today’s high definition sets, certainly boast an incredible image. The problem up until now, though, was the high cost (with a whopping $7,851 price point in 2012) and the lack of 4K content for people willing to spend that amount.
4K電視的視覺分辨率是高清電視的4倍，可以營造不可思議的畫面效果。然而，迄今爲止的問題在於高昂的價格（2012年，4K電視的均價高達7,851美元），而對於那些願意花錢購買的消費者來說，4K節目的缺乏也是一個嚴重問題。Both of those problems began to resolve themselves last year. And the trend looks to continue in 2015.
但這些問題從去年開始逐漸得到解決。而且在2015年，這種趨勢似乎仍會繼續。Viziolaunched its P-series of 4K sets in September for under $1,000, bringing the sets much closer to the flat-panel average of $450. Competitors quickly cut the prices of their own sets– and at this year’s CES, many manufacturers are expected to introduce lower-cost versions of their own 4K sets alongside their new premium models.
去年9月，Vizio公司推出了售價不到1000美元的P系列4K電視，大大拉近了這種產品與平板電視的價格差異，後者的平均售價爲450美元。競爭對手也迅速降低了各自產品的價格。在今年的CES消費電子展上，許多電視機廠商在推出新型高檔4K電視的同時，預計也將推出低價版本的4K電視。Meanwhile, Netflix NFLX -1.71% and Amazon AMZN -2.28% began streaming 4K content to customers, with Netflix offering ultra high definition versions of hits like “House of Cards” and “Breaking Bad” and Amazon adding 4K streaming to its Amazon Instant Video service, including films like “Godzilla” and “American Hustle.”
與此同時，Netflix和亞馬遜開始爲顧客提供4K節目，Netflix正在推出《紙牌屋》和《絕命毒師》等熱門電視劇的超高清版本，而亞馬遜則在即時視頻服務中加入了《哥斯拉》和《美國騙局》等電影的4K版本。Comcast, meanwhile, has partnered with SamsungSSNLF 13.64% to delivery 4K content to its sets – and plans to expand the offering to all 4K sets in the coming months.
與此同時，康卡斯特公司已經與三星達成合作協議，開始爲三星電視提供4K節目。在接下來幾個月中，該公司還計劃向所有4K電視提供內容服務。The increasing success of 4K/UHD sets may be tied, ironically, to a device that’s better known for drawing people’s attentions away from their TVs – the smartphone.
頗具諷刺意味的是，4K電視的持續成功也許取決於智能手機的發展。要知道，智能手機就是那個讓人們的注意力不斷離開電視的小設備。“Mobile phone cameras have higher resolution capability than … full HD TVs,” says O’Donovan. “Nobody would go out today and by a 2 megapixel camera, yet that is the highest resolution available in current full HD TVs. It’s like when we moved from standard definition TVs to HD TVs, lots of folks said ‘who needs HD?’ Well we wouldn’t go back to SD now, and so we will move on from HD to UHD, because it is a natural progression if only to keep up with the resolution of cameras in our phones.”
奧多諾萬表示：“手機攝像頭擁有比全高清電視更高的分辨率。現在沒有人願意出去購買一部200萬像素的照相機，但這恰恰是全高清電視目前具備的最高分辨率。當我們從標清電視升級到高清電視時，許多人說‘誰需要高清電視？’但現在沒人願意再去看標清電視了。所以，我們將從高清電視升級到超高清電視，這是自然而然的進步，即便這種升級只是爲了跟上手機攝像頭分辨率的發展速度。”Meanwhile, 4K/UHD TV manufacturers and content creators, including Disney DIS -0.53% and Netflix, have established a new coalition called the UHD Alliance that plans to set standards for 4K content and delivery.
與此同時，4K電視廠商已經同包括迪斯尼和Netflix在內的內容創造商成立了一個名爲超高清聯盟的新組織，計劃爲4K內容及其傳輸建立標準。“This is a game changer – most importantly, for consumers,” said H.S. Kim, executive vice president of Samsung’s displays business, in announcing the alliance.
三星公司顯示屏業務執行副總裁H. S. 金在宣佈聯盟結成時表示：“這將會改變行業規則，對消費者而言尤其重要。”In real world terms, that could mean better looking 4K/UHD content – which could, in turn, lure more consumers to the technology. It could also be an opportunity for satellite companies to increase subscribers, notes O’Donovan, since they’re less constricted by bandwidth availability. (Dish Network seems ready to capitalize on this, announcing at CES a 4K set-top box that will become available later this year.)
從現實世界的角度來看，這將意味着更好看的4K節目，反過來會吸引更多消費者接受這項技術。奧多諾萬指出，衛視公司也能借機吸引訂戶，因爲他們不太爲帶寬所限。（Dish Network似乎已經準備利用這一趨勢了，該公司在消費電子展上推出了一款將在今年晚些時候上市的4K機頂盒。）“The industry is rallying behind UHD,” says Samsung’s Lee. “I think now is the time, more than ever, to make sure the quality of UHD is refined.”
三星的比爾o李說：“電視業正在集結起來支持超高清電視。我認爲現在是前所未有的完善超高清品質的好時機。”（財富中文網）
